The Emerging Forecasting Community

Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick. In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets. 0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn 1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest 1:56: Manifest Conference 2024 3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market 4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination 5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young 9:03: Interview with Saul begins 9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space 11:00: Optic forecasting clubs 12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community 13:25: Manifest Conference 13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community 14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community? 14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community 16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting 19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community 20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community 21:18: Communities interested in forecasting 21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting 24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting 28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins 28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds 29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds 30:05: Swing state VP contenders 31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins 31:59: Taxing bad predictions 33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets 34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets  40:12: Hedge funds and AI