PODCAST · news
Star Spangled Gamblers
by Keendawg
Two of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.
Episodes
-
The Groypers versus Vivek Ramaswamy
Superforecaster and conservative writer Stevie Miller (@zagrebbi) explains who the Groypers are and why they are campaigning against Vivek Ramaswamy. Timestamps 0:25: Groypers 1:22: Disclaimer 3:58: Interview begins 4:40: How Miller and Chougule met 5:04: Curtis Yarvin 10:57: Intellectual…
more -
France Stabilizes Around Prime Minister Lecornu
Theodore Cazals (@trueslazac) explains why French president Emmanuel Macron is unpopular, and why the French political system has entered a period of stability anyway. William Kedjanyi (@KeejayOV3), Paul Krishnamurty (@paulmotty), and Pip Moss (@PipsFunFacts) analyze how British Prime Minister…
more -
How Long Will Starmer Remain Prime Minister?
Part 1: UK-based political bettors William Kedjanyi, Paul Krishnamurty, and Pip Moss debate how long Starmer can last as prime minister. Part 2: Chougule announces Polymarket sponsorship of DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces UK segment 0:39:...
-
Why India and Pakistan Won't Use Nuclear Weapons
Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri (@AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons. Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries…
more -
Will India Strike Pakistan?
Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with…
more -
Virginia Attorney General Election: A Bright Spot for Republicans
Curt Mills (@curtmills), Executive Director of The American Conservative, returns to discuss Virginia politics and why Republican Jason Miyares is likely to win the Attorney General race. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 1:04: Intro ends 3:05: Interview with Mills begins 3:37: Mills's connection to...
-
Chile Presidential Election
Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:35: Venezuela invasion 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: Interview begins 4:38: Polymarket odds 4:55: Chilean history 5:45: Pinochet 8:06: Chilean democracy 9:19: Ideologies of Chilean...
-
Kalshi Sports Contracts: Implications for Political Betting
Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11:...
-
Prediction Market Regulation in the Trump Era
Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro...
-
Cuomo's Comeback
Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor. Timestamps 0:17: Jacky Pritchard 0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens 2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi 3:17: Intro ends 5:17: Interview begins…
more -
Growing Prediction Markets: Lessons from the Gaming Community
David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote...
-
The Trader Who Guessed Every Swing State Correctly—Twice
In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly.…
more -
The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory
Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12:...
-
The MAGA Civil War over H-1B Visas
Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28…
more -
Kash Patel's Confirmation, Vivek Ramaswamy's Gaffe
Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe Timestamps 0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro 0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation 2:03: Hegseth's confirmation 3:01: Pratik...
-
Problems with Nate Silver's Model
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations…
more -
The Bear Case on Pete Hegseth's Confirmation Odds
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees....
-
Trump's Appointees
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments. Timestamps 0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments 1:18: Call to support SSG 2:16: Golden Modelos 2:58: Intro ends 4:59: Trump segment begins 7:12: Trump's strategy…
more -
The Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) and Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) celebrate (belatedly) the winners of the 2023 Golden Modelos for the best and worst of political gambling. Timestamps 2:04: Appreciating the political betting community 2:42: Golden Modelos 2024 3:20: Intro ends 5:19: Episode begins 5:28:...
-
Tucker Carlson After Fox News
Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure. Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule...
-
Kalshi v. CFTC: Update and Legal Issues
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket…
more -
Reporting on Election 2024 from the County Level
Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican...
-
How to Organize a Forecasting Meetup
David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03…
more -
Building the Forecasting Community: Lessons from the Sports Betting World
David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of...
-
District Judge Rules Against CFTC
Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment…
more -
Who Will Win the Trump-Harris Debate?
Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate. Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election. Timestamps...
-
Kalshi's Case Against the CFTC
Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment 0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment...
-
Crypto Bros at the Republican National Convention
Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup. Timestamps 3:58: Interview begins 5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC 18:05: Why the RNC matters 19:48: Odds on Republicans...
-
How to Comment on the CFTC's Event Contracts Proposal
Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal. Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC Timestamps 1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC 2:57: How to watch...
-
Obstacles to Rescheduling Marijuana
Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024 Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contracts Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana...
-
UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor
Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats. Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets Timestamps…
more -
Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP
Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event...
-
Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory
Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional...
-
Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics
3-Part Episode Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics. Part II: Doug Campbell...
-
How Trump Will Select His VP
Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it. Timestamps 0:09:...
-
CFTC Cracks Down on Election Contracts
The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins 8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital…
more -
Rishi Sunak's Political Future
London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held…
more -
Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden...
-
When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is...
-
Stalemate in Ukraine
Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality....
-
The Emerging Forecasting Community
Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2,...
-
The Women Who Might Be Trump's VP
Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current...
-
How Bad Is Trump's Health?
Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor...
-
Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second in Iowa
While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain. Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the...
-
AI Can't Beat the Math Nerds (Yet)
Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to...
-
Why Joe Biden's Health Concerns Are Overstated
Four Part Episode Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts Part…
more -
Can DeSantis Make a Comeback?
Three-Part Episode In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback. In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting...
-
A Mitch McConnell Health Cover-up?
Three-part episode: (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition? (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their...
-
Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections
Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina. 1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview...
-
Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia
Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket. 3:54: Interview with Harrison begins 5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights? 7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan 7:56:...
We're indexing this podcast's transcripts for the first time — this can take a minute or two. We'll show results as soon as they're ready.
No matches for "" in this podcast's transcripts.
No topics indexed yet for this podcast.
Loading reviews...
ABOUT THIS SHOW
Two of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.
HOSTED BY
Keendawg
CATEGORIES
Loading similar podcasts...
Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does Star Spangled Gamblers have?
Star Spangled Gamblers currently has 279 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Star Spangled Gamblers about?
Two of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.
How often does Star Spangled Gamblers release new episodes?
Star Spangled Gamblers publishes regularly with 279 episodes available. Check the episode list for the typical release schedule.
Where can I listen to Star Spangled Gamblers?
You can listen to Star Spangled Gamblers on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts Star Spangled Gamblers?
Star Spangled Gamblers is created and hosted by Keendawg.
URL copied to clipboard!