The Flat May HVI and the Myth of the Auckland Townhouse Glut

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The May Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results are officially in, delivering a perfectly flat 0.0% national movement. While regional variability persists under the surface - with Christchurch nudging up 0.4% and Wellington softening by 0.3% - the broader market continues to track sideways as buyers hold the pricing power but sellers refuse to capitulate. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson answer a brilliant listener question from Matthew, digging into the data to debunk the mainstream media narrative that a "glut" of townhouses is dragging down the Auckland property market. We also unpack the surprising resilience of the new build sector with building consents climbing to 39,000, dismantle claims that New Zealand has become a "tax haven" for Australian investors, and analyse RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway’s latest hints on short-term inflation.This week we discuss:May HVI National Breakdown: Why a 0.0% national change signals a long, plain-vanilla winter of sideways tracking.The Auckland Townhouse Myth: Breaking down the suburb-level data proving townhouse values are performing similarly to standalone homes (both down 3% annually).Building Consent Resilience: Why the current annualised track of 39,000 consents shows a construction sector vastly more robust than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).The Australian "Tax Haven" Headline: Dismantling trans-Tasman media hype regarding stamp duty, bright-line changes, and cross-border tax complexities.Paul Conway’s Inflation Hints: Insights from the RBNZ Chief Economist's recent webinar and what it reveals about the internal vs. external OCR committee split.The 5-Month Election Runway: Anticipating the upcoming structural slowdown as capital gains tax debates re-emerge.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.