The GDP Horror (#355)

Simon Shares

• US Fed has now promised a rate cut. This boomed markets but under lying the statement is the acceptance that trade wars are hurting the US economy.
• Horror Q1 GDP number at -3.2%. We knew it would be bad, thanks to aggressive load shedding during the period. But nobody expected this bad. The good news (sorta) is that no load shedding in Q2 should help boost that number. Also Agriculture was down 13.2% and is lumpy and should bounce back helping. But GDP for the year is going to struggle to get above 1%, and we're now almost certain to get a rate cut next month when the MPC meets.
• ANC / Ace wants "quantity easing". Assuming he means quantitive easing, I still don't understand what the plan is? So we print extra money to boost inflation (not that our inflation is low enough to be a problem) and then I suppose we use that money to buy local government debt, maybe Eskom debt. Then what? Do the lights now magically stay on? Also if we look at QE in the US, who benefitted the most? The rich, not the poor, not the students and it did not reduce inequality.
• As for the statements around the SARB and their mandate. Currently it is price stability, but adding growth is not a bad thing.
• Tongaat (JSE code: TON). It just keeps on getting uglier and that's not going to change any time soon. Best advice, stay away.
• Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) says 15% of shareholders wrote to them apposing the Wiese deal, so it's not happening and that's a good thing. As a shareholder, why should I be bailing him out? Remember if his normal equity stake drops below 10% the special voting shares lapse, so his problem is he can't sell many more shares to raise cash. Again I ask, how's that my problem?
• Hard Questions. Better Answers.
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* I hold ungeared positions.

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