The Inevitability of Centrality

In this episode of PING, APNIC’s Chief Scientist, Geoff Huston, discusses the economic inevitability of centrality, in the modern Internet. Despite our best intentions, and a lot of long standing belief amongst the IETF technologists, no amount of open standards and end-to-end protocol design prevents large players at all levels of the network (from the physical infrastructure right up to the applications and the data centres which house them) from seeking to acquire smaller competitors, and avoid sharing the space with anyone else. Some of this is a consequence of the drive for efficiency. A part has been fuelled by the effects of Moore’s law, and the cost of capital investment against the time available to recover the costs. In an unexpected outcome, networking has become (to all intents and purposes) “free” and instead of end-to-end, we now routinely expect to get data through highly localised, replicated sources. The main cost these days is land, electric power and air-conditioning. This causes a tendency to concentration, and networks and protocols play very little part in the decision about who acquires these assets, and operates them. The network still exists of course, but increasingly data flows over private links, and is not subject to open protocol design imperatives. A quote from Peter Thiel highlights how the modern Venture Capitalist in our space does not actively seek to operate in a competitive market. As Peter says: “competition is for losers” – It can be hard to avoid the “good” and “bad” labels talking about this, but Geoff is clear he isn’t here to argue what is right or wrong, simply to observe the behaviour and the consequences. Geoff presented on centrality to the Decentralised Internet Research Group or DINRG at the recent IETF meeting held in Madrid, and as he observes, “distributed” is not the same as “decentralised” -we’ve managed to achieve the first one, but the second eludes us.