The Influence of Perceived Truth of Campaign Messages on Vote Choice: Does Truth Matter When Industries Battle Opponents Over Policy Issues?

In this episode, Andrea Godfrey Flynn (University of San Diego) joins me to discuss her Journal of Advertising Research article, "The Influence of Perceived Truth of Campaign Messages on Vote Choice: Does Truth Matter When Industries Battle Opponents Over Policy Issues?" coauthored with Kathleen Seiders (Boston College).Andrea explains why perceived truth matters in political advertising — but not in a simple, uniform way. Drawing on two-wave longitudinal surveys of California voters across three high-stakes ballot measure campaigns in 2018 and 2020, she and Kathleen examine how voters' beliefs about the truthfulness of campaign messages from both the industry side and the opposing coalition side shape actual vote choice. The core finding is that truth does still matter in an era of widespread skepticism about misinformation, but its impact is conditional: conservative-leaning voters are most responsive to perceived truth in industry campaign messages, while liberal-leaning voters are most responsive to perceived truth in opponent campaign messages, consistent with longstanding partisan attitudes toward business.We also discuss the powerful role of political party endorsements as a second boundary condition. When one party officially endorses the industry side, it is actually the other party's voters who place the greatest weight on perceived truth in their vote decision, a finding with real strategic implications. The practical takeaway is that campaigns should think carefully about both audience targeting and the endorsement landscape. Emphasizing message truthfulness, backing claims with transparent and independent evidence, and avoiding demonization of the opposing side can all help campaigns win support from voters who might otherwise lean the other way. Read the full paper here: https://doi.org/10.1080/00218499.2025.2464295To keep up to date on the latest JAR news sign up for our newsletter: https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/su/mtD04QNAnd follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/82528291/admin/