The IPv6 Transition

In his regular monthly spot on PING, APNIC’s Chief Scientist Geoff Huston discusses the slowdown in worldwide IPv6 uptake. Although within the Asia-Pacific footprint we have some truly remarkable national statistics, such as India which is now over 80% IPv6 enabled by APNIC Labs measurements, And Vietnam which is not far behind on 70% the problem is that worldwide, adjusted for population and considering levels of internet penetration in the developed economies, the pace of uptake overall has not improved and has been essentially linear since 2016. In some economies like the US, a natural peak of around 50% capability was reached in 2017 and since then uptake has been essentially flat: There is no sign of closure to a global deployment in the US, and many other economies. Geoff takes a high level view of the logisitic supply curve with the early adopters, early and late majority, and laggards, and sees no clear signal that there is a visible endpoint, where a transition to IPv6 will be "done". Instead we're facing a continual dual-stack operation of both IPv4 (increasingly behind Carrier Grade Nats (CGN) deployed inside the ISP) and IPv6. There are success stories in mobile (such as seen in India) and in broadband with central management of the customer router. But, it seems that with the shift in the criticality of routing and numbering to a more name-based steering mechanism and the continued rise of content distribution networks, the pace of IPv6 uptake worldwide has not followed the pattern we had planned for.