The Iran War Tariffs Hidden Impact on Core Inflation

Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran war tariff is distorting core inflation readings. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing 3.3% annual core inflation in April 2026, they explain why energy costs are bleeding into categories like airfare, shipping, and industrial inputs. They examine why Fed officials like Kashkari and Goolsbee are prioritizing inflation over labor market concerns, and what this means for rate cuts in the second half of 2026. Using specific data from the latest JOLTS report and jobless claims, they question whether the tight labor market can withstand persistent inflation above 3%. The episode challenges the conventional wisdom that core inflation is purely 'transitory' and argues that tariff-driven energy costs are creating a sticky floor beneath price pressures. #Inflation #IranWarTariff #FederalReserve #CorePCE #EnergyInflation #Goolsbee #Kashkari #JOLTS #JoblessClaims #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #SupplyChain #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #PCE #Tariff Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo