The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next

Episode 60 of The Economic Forecast Podcast dives into the puzzling divergence between surging job openings and stagnant hiring. Lucas and Luna analyze the latest JOLTS data from April 2026, which shows openings jumping to 7.6 million while payroll growth remains sluggish. They explore structural factors like skills mismatches, geographic immobility, and employer caution in a high-interest-rate environment. The hosts also discuss how the Fed's new chairman, Kevin Warsh, might interpret these signals. Specific data referenced includes the 7,618,000 openings versus 159 million nonfarm payrolls, and the Fed funds rate at 3.63%. A donation segment ties listener support to keeping the show ad-free and independent. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #HiringSlowdown #LaborMarket #Fed #KevinWarsh #MonetaryPolicy #SkillsMismatch #WorkerShortage #EconomicData #April2026 #Employment #Inflation #InterestRates #JobMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On June 17, 2026, three Iranian tankers exited a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in months, sending oil markets into a cautious rally. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what actually happened: how the tankers slipped through, why shipowners are watching in 'wary disbelief,' and what this means for global inflation and the Fed's next move. With breakeven inflation rates dipping to 2.26% and the VIX falling to 16.83, markets are pricing in détente — but is it too early? Lucas walks through the logistics of the blockade, the impact on crude supply, and why the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% hours after the news broke. Luna challenges whether this is a genuine de-escalation or a temporary blip. Specific data points: 10-year breakeven inflation at 2.26 on June 17, VIX at 16.83, and the Fed's interest on reserve balances at 3.65%. A focused, numbers-driven look at one of the most consequential energy events of 2026. #IranBlockade #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply #CrudeOil #Inflation #FederalReserve #Fed #KevinWarsh #BankOfEngland #InterestRates #VIX #BreakevenInflation #EnergyMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecastPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna unpack a curious divergence: the VIX has risen 4.3% in the past five days to 18.44, yet the S&P 500 is up 0.3% and the Dow has gained 1.3%. What's causing this gap? They zero in on the Iran energy premium, the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh, and the real message from the options market. Along the way, they explain the VIX term structure, the role of tail-risk hedging, and why a rising VIX doesn't always mean stocks are about to fall. A concrete look at how volatility markets price geopolitics in real time. #VIX #Volatility #S&P500 #DowJones #KevinWarsh #Fed #IranEnergyPremium #HormuzStrait #OptionsMarket #TailRisk #MarketDivergence #StockMarket #Inflation #Geopolitics #June2026 #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In a dramatic shift for global energy markets, three Iranian tankers have slipped through the U.S. naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in months, as shipowners watch in 'wary disbelief.' Lucas and Luna break down what this means for oil prices, inflation, and the Fed's next move—with the VIX dropping to 17.5 and wholesale energy surging 1.1% in May. They explore the fragile détente unfolding in the Persian Gulf and why traders are pricing in lower risk even as geopolitics remain tense. Plus, a quick word on how listener support keeps the show ad-free. Concrete numbers, grounded analysis, no hot takes. #IranianTankers #StraitOfHormuz #OilBlockade #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Inflation #WholesalePrices #VIX #Volatility #FederalReserve #OilPrices #GlobalTrade #Shipowners #MiddleEast #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling disconnect in the April 2026 JOLTS data: job openings jumped to 7.6 million from 6.9 million, yet hiring barely budged. They explore why employers are posting more roles but not filling them—blaming lingering uncertainty over interest rates, a skills mismatch in sectors like manufacturing and healthcare, and rising wage expectations that freeze the hiring process. The hosts also tie the trend to the Fed's dilemma: a tight labor market with stagnant hiring complicates the case for rate cuts. A specific look at how the 'phantom job opening' phenomenon is reshaping the recovery. #JobOpenings #JOLTS #HiringFreeze #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #SkillsMismatch #PhantomJobs #EconomicData #April2026 #Unemployment #WageGrowth #Manufacturing #Healthcare #EconomicForecast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising economic ripple effects of the Iran conflict on global inflation. With wholesale prices surging 1.1% in May on energy costs and the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023, they explore how geopolitical risk is embedding a new 'energy premium' into supply chains. Using the UK's 0.1% GDP contraction in April as a case study, they explain why this is different from past oil shocks and what it means for the Fed's next move. Plus, a thoughtful look at why ad-free shows like this rely on listener support at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. #IranConflict #EnergyInflation #WholesalePrices #ECBHike #GlobalInflation #GeopoliticalRisk #SupplyChain #UKGDP #OilShock #FedPolicy #CoreInflation #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #CentralBanking #InflationOutlook #EnergyPremium #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's dilemma in June 2026: inflation is running at 4.2% annually, the Fed Funds rate is at 3.63%, and the economy is growing at a tepid 1.6% real GDP. They explore why the central bank isn't cutting rates despite a cooling labor market and a VIX that dropped 20% in a week. The hosts use the recent ECB rate hike, the surge in wholesale prices, and the stubbornly high core CPI to explain the delicate balance the Fed must strike. They also discuss the housing market's role in keeping shelter costs elevated, and what the disconnect between the Fed's rate and market expectations means for investors. A must-listen for anyone trying to understand the 'higher for longer' narrative in an uncertain economy. #FederalReserve #FedFundsRate #Inflation #CPI #MonetaryPolicy #ECB #CentralBanks #InterestRates #Economics #GDP #LaborMarket #Housing #ShelterCosts #VIX #MarketVolatility #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has un-inverted for the first time in over two years, and some investors are calling it a green light for risk assets. But Lucas and Luna dig into the data — the ten-year Treasury at 4.47%, the two-year at 3.62%, and a VIX that's fallen to 16 — and argue that this time the classic signal may be a false dawn. They walk through why a steepening curve driven by term premium rather than growth optimism is a warning, not an all-clear, and what the last three un-inversions before recessions actually looked like. #YieldCurve #Uninversion #FederalReserve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #RecessionSignal #TermPremium #VIX #SteepeningCurve #LucasAndLuna #Economics #FixedIncome #MarketSignal #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #Investing #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect the puzzling divergence between rising job openings and flat hiring in the June 2026 labor market. With JOLTS data showing openings jumping to 7.6 million in April while nonfarm payrolls barely budged, they explore whether employers are posting phantom jobs, struggling to find qualified workers, or signaling a structural shift. Lucas breaks down how quits rates, wage growth at $37.50 per hour, and the Fed's 3.63% effective rate all factor into the standoff. Luna questions whether the gap between openings and hires is a statistical quirk or a warning sign for the broader economy. Along the way, they tie the disconnect to the ECB's recent rate hike and rising energy costs from the Iran conflict. The episode ends with a forward-looking question: does the pattern from the 2019 labor market offer any clues? #JobOpenings #JOLTS #LaborMarket #June2026 #Fed #Inflation #WageGrowth #Hiring #Unemployment #ECB #EnergyCosts #QuitsRate #EconomicForecast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Podcast #Fexingo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The JOLTS report for April 2026 showed a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million, yet hiring barely budged and quits stayed low. Lucas and Luna dig into what this 'low churn' labor market means for wage growth, the Fed's inflation fight, and workers' bargaining power. They connect the dots from the March 2026 JOLTS data to recent CPI and PPI readings, and explain why the Beveridge curve may be shifting permanently. A data-rich conversation about the structural mismatch between what employers want and what workers are willing to accept. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #BeveridgeCurve #QuitsRate #Hiring #WageGrowth #April2026 #LucasAndLuna #EconomicForecast #Fexingo #BusinessPodcast #Inflation #FedPolicy #Unemployment #JobMismatch #Podcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

This episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast dives into the recent story of a Chinese startup's unfolding dilemma and what it reveals about cracks in Beijing's tech funding machine. Lucas and Luna analyze how geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict and ECB rate hike, are reshaping capital flows into China's tech sector. They discuss the impact on venture capital, the role of government-backed funds, and what this means for global investors. With the S&P 500 at 7,431 and the VIX at 17.68, they connect the startup funding squeeze to broader economic signals, including wholesale prices rising 1.1% in May and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. The episode offers concrete takeaways for understanding the shifting landscape of China's tech innovation and its implications for supply chains and inflation. #ChinaTechFunding #BeijingTechCracks #StartupDilemma #ECBRateHike #IranConflict #WholesalePrices #VentureCapitalChina #GeopoliticalRisk #SupplyChain #Inflation2026 #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #EconomicForecastPodcast #LucasAndLuna #TechFundingFracture #GlobalCapitalFlows #MarketSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

This week, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, a direct response to surging energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down what this means for the global inflation picture—especially for U.S. import prices and the Federal Reserve's next move. They drill into the May CPI print of 4.2% and the surprise jump in wholesale prices, connecting the dots between European monetary policy and your grocery bill. Specific numbers: ECB's new deposit rate, the 1.1% PPI surge, and how the yield curve's slow un-inversion changes the bond market calculus. Plus, a look at whether the Fed can hold its current rate path as the global rate cycle diverges. #ECB #RateHike #Inflation #GlobalEconomy #IranConflict #EnergyPrices #CPI #PPI #WholesalePrices #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #BondMarket #Economics #Europe #USInflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed faces a tough spot in June 2026: core inflation is running at 4.2 percent annually, but the labor market shows signs of cooling with initial jobless claims ticking up and unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the divergence between sticky services inflation and a slowing hiring engine. They explain why the Fed's preferred measure—core PCE—is stuck above target, how wage growth is feeding into prices, and why the yield curve's move toward normal doesn't signal an all-clear. Using the latest JOLTS data showing job openings rebounding to 7.6 million, they explore whether the economy is heading for stagflation or a soft landing. Specific focus on the interplay between the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.31 percent and the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and what that gap means for policy through the rest of 2026. #FederalReserve #Inflation #LaborMarket #CorePCE #MonetaryPolicy #JoblessClaims #WageGrowth #Stagflation #YieldCurve #JOLTS #SoftLanding #Economics #CentralBanking #InterestRates #Employment #CPI #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into the May 2026 CPI report, which showed headline inflation at 4.2 percent year-over-year, the highest in three years. But they focus on a less discussed detail: the gap between core goods and core services inflation. Lucas explains that while core goods prices have actually been falling for three months, driven by easing supply chains and a stronger dollar, core services inflation remains stubbornly above 5 percent, fueled by rising rents and medical care costs. They explore why this divergence matters for the Fed's rate path, the bond market's reaction, and what it means for consumers. Luna brings in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.29 percent, which has ticked down, suggesting markets are betting the Fed will eventually tame services inflation. But Lucas warns that if rent inflation doesn't cool by autumn, the Fed may need to hold rates higher for longer, a scenario that could keep the yield curve inverted into 2027. Packed with specific data points and a clear framework, this episode helps listeners understand why 'inflation is high' isn't the full story. #CoreCPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #ServicesInflation #RentInflation #BondMarket #YieldCurve #BreakevenRate #ConsumerPrices #MayCPI #EconomicForecast #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #LucasAndLuna #InflationDivergence Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna examine the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026—the first since 2023—amid an energy shock from the Iran conflict. They unpack how a 25-basis-point move in Frankfurt affects the U.S. Treasuries market, the dollar, and the Fed's own path. With the ten-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.46% this week and core CPI still sticky at 4.2%, the episode asks whether global central banks are now out of sync. Lucas brings a specific data point: the one-and-a-half percent drop in the ten-year note since the ECB decision, a move that contradicts the 'higher for longer' narrative. Luna challenges whether U.S. markets can decouple from Europe's energy-driven inflation. The hosts tie it to the real economy: breakeven inflation rates are slipping, suggesting bond traders see a slowdown ahead, not a spiral. A tightly-focused, cross-border take on monetary policy in a fractured world. #ECB #RateHike #InterestRates #Inflation #GlobalEconomy #EnergyShock #IranConflict #Treasuries #TenYearYield #BreakevenInflation #MonetaryPolicy #Fed #USMarkets #BondMarket #CentralBanks #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the May wholesale inflation data that surprised everyone — producer prices up 1.1 percent in a single month, driven by energy. They connect that to consumer price data showing 4.2 percent annual inflation, the highest in three years, and ask whether the pipeline for price increases is still flowing faster than the Fed can respond. The conversation explores what this means for input costs, corporate margins, and the central bank's next move, especially as the ECB just hiked rates for the first time since 2023. Specific numbers and real-world implications make this episode a clear-eyed look at where inflation pressure is coming from — and whether it's already embedded in the system. #WholesalePrices #ProducerPriceIndex #Inflation #CoreInflation #EnergyPrices #ECB #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #SupplyChain #InputCosts #CorporateMargins #EconomicForecast #Economics #MacroEconomics #MarketData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a painful disconnect in the May 2026 CPI report. While average hourly earnings crept up to $37.50, shelter costs jumped 0.6% month-over-month — the biggest increase in over a year. They trace how rent inflation is being driven by a shortage of 2.3 million housing units, a hangover from the 2020-2021 construction slump. The hosts also examine the New York Fed's latest survey showing household financial worries at a two-year high. Lucas explains why the Fed can't afford to ignore shelter inflation even as it hopes for a softening. Luna challenges whether the official CPI adequately captures real-world rent burdens. The conversation closes with a look at the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.34% and what it signals about market expectations. A focused, data-rich exploration of the single most stubborn component in today's inflation picture. #ShelterInflation #CPI #Rent #HousingShortage #AverageHourlyEarnings #WageGrowth #FederalReserve #NewYorkFed #ConsumerSentiment #BreakevenInflation #TenYearTreasury #May2026CPI #CoreInflation #LaborMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May 2026, the highest print in three years. Lucas and Luna drill into the May CPI report released this morning, breaking down the key drivers—shelter, energy, and a surprising uptick in core services—and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the FOMC meeting next week and the ECB decision tomorrow, they discuss whether the inflation surprise changes the rate path, and why markets are now pricing in a possible hike. Plus, a look at the New York Fed's latest survey showing household financial worries at a two-year high, and what that tension between macro data and consumer sentiment means for the economy ahead. #Inflation #CPI #MayCPI #FedPolicy #InterestRates #CoreInflation #ShelterCosts #EnergyPrices #ConsumerSentiment #NewYorkFed #FOMC #ECB #EconomicOutlook #June2026 #MarketVolatility #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years—the longest stretch in modern history. But in recent weeks, the two-year to ten-year spread has flipped positive again. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why this so-called 'uninversion' may not be the bullish signal investors think it is. They examine the structural shift in Treasury term premiums, the role of the Fed's quantitative tightening, and why this yield curve normalization is happening alongside a VIX spike and subdued small-cap performance. Lucas argues that this curve move is less about future growth optimism and more about a breakdown in old relationships between rates, risk appetite, and liquidity. Luna pushes back with historical context from 2006 and 2019—both times the curve uninverted just before recessions. Specific data points include the current ten-year yield at 4.53%, the five-year at 4.25%, and the Fed funds rate at 3.63%. If you think yield curve normalization means smooth sailing ahead, this episode is your reality check. #YieldCurve #Uninversion #Treasury #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Bonds #RecessionSignal #TermPremium #QuantitativeTightening #VIX #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #MacroEconomics #Economics #TheEconomicForecastPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #June2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Consumer confidence is slipping even as the economy adds jobs and GDP grows. Lucas and Luna dig into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household financial worry at its highest since July 2022. They break down how rising credit card balances and auto loan delinquencies are squeezing spending, why the VIX spike suggests markets are pricing in a consumer-led slowdown, and what Wednesday's CPI report might reveal about whether inflation is truly cooling. The episode connects the dots between the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.53 percent, the inversion in short-term rates, and the widening gap between the NASDAQ's rout and the Dow's resilience. A grounded look at the disconnect between macro headlines and household reality. #ConsumerSpending #HouseholdDebt #NewYorkFed #ConsumerSentiment #Inflation #FedPolicy #VIX #TreasuryYields #NASDAQ #DowJones #CPI #CreditCardDebt #AutoLoans #EconomicOutlook #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketVolatility Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 40 of The Economic Forecast Podcast digs into the growing disconnect between solid GDP growth and sinking consumer sentiment. Lucas and Luna explore New York Fed survey data showing household financial worries at their highest since July 2022, even as GDP expands. They unpack the role of persistent inflation, the labor market's conflicting signals, and the recent VIX spike of 13.5 percent in a week. Using the latest data through June 9, 2026, they ask whether the economy is really as strong as the headline numbers suggest, or if consumers are sensing something the models are missing. A timely look at why the mood on Main Street and the data from Washington are drifting apart. #ConsumerSentiment #GDP #NewYorkFed #Inflation #LaborMarket #VIX #EconomicForecast #June2026 #HouseholdFinances #CoreCPI #JobOpenings #Unemployment #RealGDP #FOMC #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 39 of The Economic Forecast Podcast digs into a puzzle: the economy grew at 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026, the job market added 122,000 private payrolls in May, yet the New York Fed's survey shows household financial worries are at a two-year high. Lucas and Luna examine the disconnect between headline GDP and lived experience — focusing on the role of sticky core inflation at 335.4, the surge in initial jobless claims to 225,000, and the fact that long-term unemployment is rising. They explore why consumers feel worse than the data suggests, and what that means for the economic outlook into the summer of 2026. #ConsumerSentiment #GDP #Inflation #JoblessClaims #NewYorkFed #EconomicDisconnect #CorePCE #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #InterestRates #FedPolicy #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #LucasAndLuna #June2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but something changed this week: the two-year Treasury yield dropped below the three-month bill for the first time since 2023. Lucas and Luna unpack what this partial normalization means for the Fed, for recession signals, and for your portfolio. They walk through the specific yield levels as of June 8, 2026 — the two-year at 3.62%, the ten-year at 4.54%, the thirty-year at 5.00% — and explain why the curve is steepening even as short rates fall. They compare today's inversion structure to past cycles and ask whether this is the beginning of the end of the Fed's hiking cycle or just another head fake. #YieldCurve #Treasury #FederalReserve #Inversion #Steepening #TwoYearYield #TenYearYield #ThirtyYearYield #RecessionSignal #BondMarket #FixedIncome #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheEconomicForecastPodcast #June2026 #RateOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Russell 2000 is down 2.5% in five days while the Dow barely budged. Lucas and Luna dig into the small-cap selloff: why the divergence with large caps is widening, how the VIX surge to 21.5 is hitting small companies hardest, and what the May jobs report on Friday could mean for this corner of the market. They break down the leverage dynamic, the rising Treasury yields, and whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning signal. Plus, a quick look at what the VIX-VVIX gap tells us about complacency versus actual hedging activity. Recorded June 7, 2026. #SmallCapCrash #Russell2000 #VIX #VVIX #StockMarket #MarketDivergence #TreasuryYields #Leverage #MayJobsReport #NonfarmPayrolls #SmallCapStocks #MarketVolatility #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #Investing #RiskParity Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The NASDAQ has dropped 5.1% in the last five days while the Dow is essentially flat. Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the divergence — tech giants getting hit by tariff exposure and rising long-term bond yields, while industrial and financial stocks hold up. They look at the composition gap, the role of the ten-year Treasury at 4.54%, and what the VIX surge to 21.5 tells us about where risk is concentrated. Plus: what this means for the 'soft landing' narrative the market has been betting on. #NASDAQ #DowJones #StockMarketDivergence #TechSelloff #BondYields #VIX #TariffImpact #SoftLanding #MarketRegimeChange #GrowthStocks #ValueStocks #FederalReserve #Inflation #EconomicForecast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MarketVolatility Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The VIX has surged 34% in five days to 21.51, while the VVIX has only risen 11.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack what this divergence means for investors. They explore why the VIX is climbing faster than options on the VIX, a pattern that historically precedes sharp market moves. The episode drills into the Fed's holding pattern, the labor market's mixed signals, and why the yield curve steepening adds to the uncertainty. No clickbait—just a focused look at what the fear index is really saying as of June 6, 2026. #VIX #VVIX #MarketVolatility #StockMarket #Fed #Inflation #YieldCurve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Unemployment #Investing #Economics #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #MarketRegime #FearIndex Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the April 2026 CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target despite a cooling economy. They examine a surprising divergence: headline CPI fell to 332.4, but core CPI rose to 335.4, driven by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core services excluding housing — the so-called 'supercore' category. Lucas explains how a tight labor market with 7.6 million job openings and rising average hourly earnings to $37.50 are keeping service-sector inflation sticky, even as goods prices moderate. Luna points out the paradox that the unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, yet long-term unemployment is surging, hinting at structural shifts that could prolong the inflation problem. They also explore the market's reaction: the VIX spiking 34% to 21.51 while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.54%, suggesting investors are pricing in persistent inflation risk. The episode concludes with a look ahead to the May jobs report and whether the Fed can afford to stay on hold. #Inflation #CoreCPI #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Supercore #PCE #MonetaryPolicy #June2026 #EconomicForecast #StickyInflation #TreasuryYield #VIX #WageGrowth #LongTermUnemployment #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The May jobs report is out Friday, but the real story is the quiet surge in long-term unemployment. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data: job openings hit a two-year high, yet the share of unemployed out of work for 27 weeks or more is climbing. They explore why this mismatch is happening, how it affects wage growth and inflation, and what it signals about the health of the labor market. Plus, a look at the hidden costs for workers and the economy. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobsReport #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicForecast #Podcast #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #JoblessClaims #StructuralUnemployment #SkillsMismatch #May2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The May jobs report drops Friday, but beneath the headline payroll number, a troubling trend is building: long-term unemployment is surging. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data—initial jobless claims spiked to 225,000, and the number of workers jobless for 27 weeks or more is rising fast. They explore why this matters for the Fed's rate path, consumer spending, and the broader economy, and what it means if you're one of the millions caught in the gap. #LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #May2026 #EconomicForecast #FedPolicy #LaborMarket #InitialJoblessClaims #JoblessRecovery #Hysteresis #ConsumerSpending #UnemploymentRate #WageGrowth #InterestRates #Inflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the May jobs report due Friday, Lucas and Luna dig into a worrying trend beneath the headline numbers: long-term unemployment is surging even as overall job openings hit a two-year high. Using the latest JOLTS data and the Fed's Beige Book anecdotes, they explore why workers who have been out of work for more than six months are getting left behind — and what that means for wage growth, inflation stickiness, and the labor market's structural health. They also touch on the diverging signals between the VIX and VVIX and what the yield curve steepening tells us about recession odds. A specific, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the real economy behind the headlines. #LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #LaborMarket #JOLTS #VIX #VVIX #YieldCurve #Inflation #WageGrowth #May2026 #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedPolicy #StructuralUnemployment #LaborForceParticipation #ADP Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In Episode 30 of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising disconnect between surging job openings and stagnant wage growth. With JOLTS hitting a two-year high of 7.6 million in April while average hourly earnings barely budged, they explore how labor market churn—workers switching jobs at record rates—is reshaping inflation dynamics. Using fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, they explain why this churn keeps prices sticky even as headline CPI appears to moderate. The hosts also discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path and why the VIX is creeping higher. Plus, a brief note on how listener support keeps the podcast ad-free. #LaborMarket #JOLTS #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #Churn #QuitRate #AtlantaFed #BureauOfLaborStatistics #EconomicForecast #Economics #VIX #JobOpenings #StickyInflation #Hiring #LaborChurn #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising divergence between the strong ADP payroll number—122,000 jobs added in May—and the plunge in the Russell 2000, down 1.5% over the past five days. They explore why small-cap stocks are selling off even as the job market appears to firm up, and what this tension means for the Fed's next move. The conversation anchors on the April JOLTS surge to 7.6 million openings versus the flat unemployment rate at 4.3%, and connects these dots to the broader inflation picture, with core CPI at 335.4. Lucas argues the labor market is bifurcated: services hiring is robust, but goods-producing sectors face headwinds from tariffs and the Iran conflict. Luna challenges whether the market is pricing in a recession or just a rotation. Specific, data-driven, and grounded in June 3, 2026 market conditions. #LaborMarket #ADP #JOLTS #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #Fed #Inflation #CoreCPI #UnemploymentRate #Tariffs #IranWar #Payrolls #EconomicData #MarketDivergence #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Forecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

April's JOLTS report showed 7.6 million job openings—the highest in two years—yet wage growth remains muted. Lucas and Luna break down the paradox: why employers are posting more roles but not raising pay, and what it says about the labor market's structure in mid-2026. They explore the role of worker churn, sector reallocation, and the Iran war's impact on energy costs reshaping hiring patterns. With the Fed stuck at 3.63% and inflation still sticky, this episode explains why a hot job market hasn't translated into hotter wages—and what that means for the economy ahead. #JOLTS #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #WageGrowth #Inflation #Fed #InterestRates #IranWar #EnergyCosts #WorkerChurn #JoblessClaims #Unemployment #CPI #CorePCE #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Job openings jumped to 7.6 million in April, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna break down what this JOLTS surge means for wage growth, the Fed's rate path, and whether the labor market is actually as tight as the headline suggests. They look at the ratio of job seekers per opening, the quits rate, and why this number might complicate the inflation fight. Plus, a brief reflection on how following these indicators can sharpen your economic understanding. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #WageGrowth #Inflation #QuitsRate #EconomicIndicators #April2026 #BureauOfLaborStatistics #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MonetaryPolicy #Employment #Hiring #TightLaborMarket #RateDecision Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) sits at 16.05, relatively calm for a market near all-time highs. But the VVIX, which measures volatility-of-volatility, is up over 2% in the past week to 91.60. Lucas and Luna dig into this divergence: what it means when the VIX is low but the VVIX is rising. They explore how this pattern historically precedes sharp selloffs, especially when combined with sticky core inflation at 3.3% and geopolitical shocks from the Iran war tariff pushing household energy costs $450 higher. Is the market too complacent? This episode breaks down the signal every options trader watches when the VIX seems boring. #VIX #VVIX #VolatilityOfVolatility #OptionsMarket #Complacency #MarketRisk #CoreInflation #IranWarTariff #EnergyInflation #S&P500 #FedPolicy #MarketSentiment #InvestorPsychology #MacroRisks #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The job market looks tight on the surface with unemployment at 4.3 percent, but Lucas and Luna dig into the churn beneath the headline: job openings are falling, workers are staying put, and wage growth is stuck at 3.5 percent. They explore how this 'low-churn, sticky-wage' dynamic is feeding into core inflation and keeping the Fed on hold. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.38 percent and the Fed funds rate at 3.62 percent, the hosts explain why the labor market isn't cooling fast enough to bring prices down. Plus, they tie the persistence of energy inflation — from the Iran war tariffs — to the broader inflation picture. This episode offers a concise, data-driven look at the mechanics behind today's economic stalemate. #LaborMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #CoreInflation #WageGrowth #JobOpenings #JOLTS #UnemploymentRate #EnergyInflation #IranWarTariff #FedHoldingPattern #BreakevenInflation #AverageHourlyEarnings #EconomicForecast #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran war tariff is distorting core inflation readings. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing 3.3% annual core inflation in April 2026, they explain why energy costs are bleeding into categories like airfare, shipping, and industrial inputs. They examine why Fed officials like Kashkari and Goolsbee are prioritizing inflation over labor market concerns, and what this means for rate cuts in the second half of 2026. Using specific data from the latest JOLTS report and jobless claims, they question whether the tight labor market can withstand persistent inflation above 3%. The episode challenges the conventional wisdom that core inflation is purely 'transitory' and argues that tariff-driven energy costs are creating a sticky floor beneath price pressures. #Inflation #IranWarTariff #FederalReserve #CorePCE #EnergyInflation #Goolsbee #Kashkari #JOLTS #JoblessClaims #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #SupplyChain #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #PCE #Tariff Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna examine how the Iran war tariff is hitting American households in the wallet, with average families paying an extra $450 on gas and energy according to CNBC. They discuss how this geopolitical shock is combining with lingering inflation psychology to create a 'double scar' effect on consumer confidence and spending patterns. The hosts break down what this means for the Fed's interest rate path, the upcoming holiday shopping season, and whether the impact is temporary or structural. They also look at how different income brackets are responding — from cutting discretionary purchases to trading down in grocery brands — and what the VIX's drop below 16 signals about market complacency. A timely look at the intersection of geopolitics, inflation expectations, and everyday household economics. #IranWarTariff #ConsumerSpending #GasPrices #EnergyInflation #InflationExpectations #FedPolicy #GeopoliticalRisk #HouseholdEconomics #DoubleScarEffect #DiscretionarySpending #ConsumerConfidence #VIX #CPI #PCE #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the CNBC headline that every US household is paying an extra $450 on gas and energy because of the Iran war. They break down how that number is calculated, why energy inflation is stickier than core inflation, and what it means for consumer spending heading into summer. Along the way, they connect the 4.45% ten-year yield to the geopolitical risk premium and ask whether the Fed's inflation fight can succeed when the shock is supply-driven. A grounded, number-first look at how a geopolitical event shows up in your monthly budget. #IranWar #EnergyInflation #GasPrices #ConsumerSpending #GeopoliticalRisk #FedPolicy #CoreInflation #PCEPriceIndex #TenYearYield #TreasuryYields #May2026 #HouseholdBudget #SupplyShock #CNBC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheEconomicForecastPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing core inflation at 3.3% and the impact of the Iran conflict on energy costs, which are costing the average U.S. household an extra $450 annually. They explore why energy inflation is more persistent than expected, how it feeds into consumer sentiment despite a strong labor market, and what this means for the Fed's policy path. A breakdown of the disconnect between official inflation metrics and real-world pain at the pump. #Inflation #EnergyInflation #FedPolicy #IranConflict #ConsumerSentiment #CoreInflation #GasPrices #PCE #LaborMarket #EconomicForecast #Podcast #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #GeopoliticalRisk #SupplyShock #MonetaryPolicy #CostOfLiving Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed has held rates steady at 3.64 percent since January 2026, and the bond market is starting to signal impatience. Lucas and Luna dig into why the Fed is paralyzed between sticky core inflation (3.3 percent in April per the PCE) and a softening labor market where job openings have fallen below 6.9 million for the first time since early 2021. They discuss the 'wait and see' posture of the new Fed chair, the challenge of energy inflation from the Iran conflict adding $450 to the average household's gas bill, and why the yield curve steepening suggests the market expects cuts despite the Fed's hawkish rhetoric. The episode is grounded in the latest data from May 2026, including the breakeven inflation rate holding at 2.39 percent and the VIX falling to 15.32, indicating markets are pricing in a prolonged pause rather than a crisis. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #PCE #CoreInflation #EnergyInflation #IranWar #BondMarket #YieldCurve #Steepening #FedPause #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #LucasAndLuna #StagflationRisk Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been steepening sharply in late May 2026, with the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields widening to nearly a percentage point. Lucas and Luna explain what's driving this move — from sticky core inflation at 3.3% to the Fed's messaging around rate cuts — and what it means for bond investors, mortgage rates, and the stock market. They break down the key data points, including the 10-year yield at 4.45% and the 2-year at 3.59%, and discuss whether this steepening is a signal of future growth or a warning of persistent inflation. If you're trying to position your portfolio for the second half of 2026, this episode gives you the framework to understand what the bond market is really saying. #YieldCurve #Steepening #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #Inflation #CorePCE #InterestRates #PortfolioStrategy #FixedIncome #MacroEconomics #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #LucasAndLuna #May2026 #MarketSignal Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna examine a growing divide in the U.S. economy: while real GDP growth ticked up to 1.6% in Q1 2026 and the S&P 500 sits at 7,564, the housing market is sending a different signal. Home prices remain elevated, but rent inflation is stuck near 4% year-over-year, and mortgage rates above 6.5% are squeezing both buyers and renters. The hosts drill into the April CPI shelter component, which rose at a 4.1% annual rate, and the disconnect between what landlords charge existing tenants versus new leases. They also explore why this 'housing bifurcation' makes the Fed's job harder—especially when core PCE just hit 3.3% in April. If you've ever wondered why the economy feels strong but housing feels broken, this is the episode for you. #HousingMarket #ShelterInflation #CPI #CorePCE #FedPolicy #MortgageRates #RentInflation #RealGDP #EconomicDivergence #HomePrices #Inflation2026 #LaborMarket #ConsumerSentiment #ApartmentList #Zillow #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle from the May 28 data: core PCE hit 3.3% annualized in April, but consumer surveys and anecdotes suggest inflation feels far more painful. Lucas points to the gap between the official 'basket of goods' and what households actually spend—especially services like auto insurance, which is up over 20% year over year. Luna brings in the latest Fed commentary from Goolsbee and Kashkari, who acknowledge energy persistence. They explore why the disconnect matters for policy: if the Fed relies on core PCE, it might underweight the real squeeze on lower-income households. Specific numbers: 10-year breakeven at 2.39% (down from 2.40%), unemployment at 4.3%, and job openings dropping to 6.87 million. The episode closes on a forward-looking note about whether the May CPI print could shift the narrative. #Inflation #CorePCE #ConsumerSentiment #FedPolicy #Goolsbee #Kashkari #EnergyInflation #AutoInsurance #CostOfLiving #RealEconomy #BreakevenRate #JOLTS #Unemployment #Economics #EconomicForecast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 16 of The Economic Forecast Podcast drills into one of the most surprising moves in markets this week: the yield curve is steepening, and fast. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics behind the ten-year yield falling to 4.48 percent while expectation-sensitive parts of the curve hold firm. They connect the steepening to the Fed's cautious stance, the jump in consumer sentiment data, and what it signals about growth and inflation expectations for the second half of 2026. Along the way, they discuss why this steepening feels different from the 2023-2024 pattern and what it means for bond investors and mortgage holders. #YieldCurve #Steepening #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #InflationExpectations #EconomicForecast #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #TermPremium #GrowthOutlook #May2026 #ConsumerSentiment #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Home prices are cooling across the US, but rent inflation remains stubbornly high. Lucas and Luna unpack why the two markets have decoupled, using May 2026 CPI data showing shelter costs up 5.2% year-over-year despite a 3% drop in median home prices. They trace the lag effect in official inflation baskets, the role of multifamily construction booms in Sun Belt cities, and what this means for the Fed's core PCE target. Plus: the VIX dropping below 17 while rent pressures linger — a signal that markets expect the Fed to look through shelter inflation. #RentInflation #ShelterCosts #CPI #CorePCE #HousingMarket #FedPolicy #InflationLag #MultifamilyConstruction #SunBelt #HomePrices #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #LaborMarket #MonetaryPolicy #InflationBasket #May2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the growing divergence between inflation expectations and bond yields in late May 2026. Despite consumer sentiment hitting a record low and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 2.40 percent, the ten-year Treasury yield has actually fallen to 4.49 percent over the past week. Lucas explains the mechanics behind this apparent contradiction — including a flight to safety driven by geopolitical turmoil in Iran, and the market's belief that the Fed's tight policy will eventually cool the economy. Luna questions whether the bond market is being too complacent, and they weigh the risks of a policy error. Tune in for a sharp, data-driven look at what the yield curve is really saying about growth and inflation right now. #Economics #Inflation #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #GeopoliticalRisk #FlightToSafety #10YearYield #BreakevenInflation #YieldCurve #ConsumerSentiment #IranWar #ECB #MarketSignal #GrowthOrInflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the striking divergence between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 in late May 2026. With the Russell up 6.1% over the past week against the S&P 500's 2.2% gain, small caps are surging while large caps lag. They dig into the drivers: a flattening yield curve, stabilizing inflation expectations, and the market's bet on a more accommodative Fed under the new chair. Specific numbers include the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.49%, the 2-year at 3.58%, and the VIX dropping to 17.03. They also consider headwinds like the Iran conflict and consumer sentiment at a record low. A must-listen for anyone tracking market rotations and the economic outlook mid-2026. #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #S&P500 #StockMarket #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #Inflation #VIX #MarketRotation #EconomicForecast #Investing #TreasuryYields #ConsumerSentiment #IranConflict #May2026 #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The US economy just put up a 2 percent annualized real GDP growth number, but consumer sentiment hit a fresh record low in May 2026. Lucas and Luna unpick the disconnect: how can output be expanding while households feel worse than they did during the pandemic? They walk through the two key forces at play — wage growth that's running hot in blue-collar sectors versus persistent inflation in services and rent — and flag the Iran war's effect on energy prices as the wildcard that's spooking consumers. Plus, a look at the S&P 500 sitting near 7,473 and what the stock market is pricing in that the sentiment surveys aren't. Specific data points include the 4.3 percent unemployment rate, the 3.64 effective fed funds rate, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40 percent. #ConsumerSentiment #GDP #Inflation #EconomicDisconnect #May2026 #IranWar #EnergyPrices #BlueCollarWages #FedPolicy #StockMarket #SP500 #TreasuryYields #BreakevenInflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macro #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna break down the Federal Reserve's latest dilemma: core PCE holding at 2.8 percent while a new wave of tariffs from the Iran conflict pushes import prices higher. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.64 percent and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate rising to 2.40 percent, the hosts explain why the Fed can't cut rates without reigniting inflation, but can't hold tight without risking a growth slowdown. They walk through the specific mechanics of how tariffs feed into core inflation measures, why the bond market is starting to price in a longer pause, and what this means for the average consumer facing higher prices on everyday goods. A focused, data-driven look at the central bank's toughest policy call in years. #FederalReserve #Inflation #Tariffs #IranConflict #CorePCE #FedPolicy #InterestRates #BondMarket #ConsumerPrices #SupplyChain #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicOutlook #BreakevenInflation #FOMC #CentralBank #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo