EPISODE · Feb 18, 2026 · 28 MIN
The Liquidity Signal That Called Bitcoin's Drop Is Still Red
from The Bitcoin Layer · host Nik Bhatia
In this episode, Nik walks through our TBL proprietary liquidity index, explaining why the red signal flagged in late December and confirmed in January preceded Bitcoin's sharp decline below $70,000. He breaks down the four inputs driving the current liquidity contraction, with focus on dollar volatility and bond stress, the US-Japan currency relationship, and why early-cycle US credit growth remains the structural argument for improving conditions ahead.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 937304⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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What this episode covers
In this episode, Nik walks through our TBL proprietary liquidity index, explaining why the red signal flagged in late December and confirmed in January preceded Bitcoin's sharp decline below $70,000. He breaks down the four inputs driving the current liquidity contraction, with focus on dollar volatility and bond stress, the US-Japan currency relationship, and why early-cycle US credit growth remains the structural argument for improving conditions ahead.
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The Liquidity Signal That Called Bitcoin's Drop Is Still Red
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