The Bitcoin Layer

In this Global Macro Update, Nik returns from teaching his summer bitcoin and AI course at USC to a market waking up after the World Cup lull. He makes the case for a global dollar shortage behind the dollar's continued strength, with stress surfacing across Asia: India's push to pull in overseas dollars, a sharp correction in Korea's KOSPI, and the Japanese yen at its weakest level since 1990. He then turns to the pressure building in hyperscaler and AI corporate bonds, Apple overtaking Nvidia as the world's largest company, and SpaceX slipping below its IPO valuation. Cooling CPI and PPI, treasury yields, gold, and where bitcoin sits in deep-value territory round out the update. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten to discuss why he believes bitcoin's bear market may be nearing its end. James walks through ETF flows that have held firm despite months of outflows, the rotation of capital out of AI and semiconductor names like NVIDIA, and where that money could head next. The conversation turns to Michael Saylor's decision to sell bitcoin near the lows, the role hedge funds played in pressuring Strategy through STRC, and on-chain data showing roughly 330,000 bitcoin accumulated between the high fifties and low sixties since February. James and Nik also examine this cycle's unusually shallow 54% drawdown and the case for a bottom ahead of October. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this global macro update, Nik asks whether bitcoin has finally bottomed after tagging 58k and reclaiming 60,000. He walks through the bullish divergences forming on bitcoin's daily and weekly charts, why a grinding-higher dollar has been weighing on liquidity and bitcoin all year, and why he now sees Asia, particularly yen and Korean won weakness, as the most likely spot for trouble. Nik also covers new Fed chair Kevin Warsh and his read that Warsh is playing junior to Scott Bessent on taming volatility, the state of Michael Saylor's STRC dividend and MSTR, and what TBL liquidity is signaling now The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes Peter McCormack, host of the Peter McCormack Show, for a conversation on how he is using AI in his own business. Peter, who has no coding background, walks through the full podcast-management system he built with Claude in 11 days, work he says would once have taken a 14-person team over a year and cost around a million pounds. He covers how he got started, how he learned to prompt, and why he now thinks of himself as a software engineer. Peter and Nik also discuss why this is the printing-press moment for software, how AI threatens aggregators like hotels.com, and why he believes there is a short window to stake your claim in this new world. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes Charlie Hu, founder of Coco AI and a bitcoiner since 2012, for a wide-ranging conversation on where AI is heading. Charlie shares takeaways from the Super AI conference in Singapore, walks through SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of Cursor and what it signals about AI capital and exits, and gives his read on the US government's suspension of Anthropic's Fable and Mythos models. He then lays out his core thesis: that AI is ultimately a process of converting energy into intelligence, which reframes data centers, the US-China race, and even SpaceX's valuation as an energy story. Drawing on his background as a bitcoiner and former Web3 builder, Charlie explains why he sees this as the most important paradigm shift of our era. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes Michael Sullivan, a bitcoin researcher who analyzes market sentiment through language. Michael explains how he runs natural language models across thousands of tweets, cohorting bitcoiners into newer retail accounts versus longer-term holders, to measure moods like anger, conviction, optimism, and apathy over time. He covers why bitcoin is in one of the most prolonged anger regimes on record, why Michael Saylor has become the main target of that disapproval, and how the current mix of low engagement, fading excitement, and apathy resembles the conditions you tend to see near a market bottom. Nik and Michael also discuss the AI trade pulling mindshare from bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes Tony Yazbek, co-founder of The Bitcoin Way, for a conversation on why owning bitcoin yourself is the whole point. Tony argues that bitcoin is money rather than an investment, and that anything wrapped in legacy finance, from ETFs to exchange balances, is not the same as holding it directly. He recounts surviving Lebanon's 2019 banking collapse, when he woke up homeless with about $75 after the banks confiscated everyone's savings, and how it shaped his conviction. Tony and Nik also dig into what self-sovereignty does for people, how to think about hardware and air-gapped storage, the volatility myth, and jurisdictional sovereignty, with Tony drawing on 30 years in cybersecurity throughout. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Tanvi Ratna, geoeconomic strategist and Fox News columnist, for a conversation on why the Iran conflict is far bigger than the Middle East. Tanvi lays out her thesis that Iran is the node in a global re-architecture of the world order, and walks through how the war is realigning Europe, reshaping NATO as European commanders take over operational theaters, and squeezing Russia out of Latin America, the Middle East, and its energy markets. She explains the Saudi-Israel question still blocking a regional deal, the corridor wars around Hormuz and the Balkans, and how US LNG and new energy infrastructure are redrawing the map of global energy dominance. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes John Tinsman, founder and portfolio manager at AOT Invest, for a conversation on why the AI buildout looks like a revolution rather than a bubble. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Daniel Batten, bitcoin researcher and longtime voice on bitcoin's role in energy, for a conversation on the collision between AI, the power grid, and bitcoin mining. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Stephen Perrenod, astrophysicist and member of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, for a conversation on the mathematics behind bitcoin's price. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Joe Consorti, a TBL veteran who helped build The Bitcoin Layer in its early days, for a conversation on bitcoin, AI, and the next phase of markets. Joe explains why bitcoin has lagged equities, why the four-year cycle may be breaking, and why AI could become one of the biggest long-term bull cases for bitcoin. He also breaks down the volatile macro setup ahead, from war-driven oil inflation and higher rates to the AI capex boom, asset price inflation, and why bitcoin may be uniquely positioned as an asset that cannot be disrupted in the AI era. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

The CME just launched compute futures, with CEO Terry Duffy calling compute "the new oil of the 21st century." In this video, Nik argues this is the dominant force in markets right now, and it's exactly what he laid out in yesterday's Substack post, The Token Layer. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this Global Macro Update, Nik argues a global bond crisis is brewing and it starts outside the United States. Japanese yields are driving the worldwide sell-off, with German and UK bonds close behind, while inflation expectations roar back on the oil shock from the war in Iran. Nik walks through every major asset class, the bear flattener in US Treasuries, why credit spreads show no fear at home, and why the SOFR market signals a flight to safety rather than US bond stress. On the economy, he makes the case that the US labor market is strong, housing inflation is bottoming, and the AI capex boom is creating demand-driven inflation now showing up in ISM prices paid. The could-be crisis is most dangerous abroad, where dollar strength and dollar-denominated oil costs are choking the ability to service debt. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

Nik welcomes Matt Dines, CIO of Build Asset Management, back to The Bitcoin Layer to unpack the UAE leaving OPEC and what it signals about a broader dollar system remake. Dines ties the UAE's pivot toward direct Fed swap lines to the Bank of Japan holding rates, the un-inversion of the 3-month / 6-month T-bill curve after 130 weeks, and the disaster unfolding in UK gilts. He closes with his thesis on the ninth inning of the credit cycle, the 1913 Anglo-American merger, and the Pax Silica vision tying together semiconductors, energy, critical minerals, stablecoins, and bitcoin as the glue of an emerging American-led global order. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

Nik welcomes back Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on AI's economic impact, the repricing of software stocks, and why the deficit only goes one direction. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

Nik welcomes back Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital for an urgent breakdown of the global liquidity cycle. Michael explains why the cyclical top is in, how oil, the MOVE index, and the dollar have dealt a 20% blow to global liquidity, and why the everything bubble is over. They cover the $45 trillion debt maturity wall, China's monetization driving gold, Treasury QE replacing Fed QE, bank deregulation as a 2027 catalyst, private credit's illiquidity risk, and why Michael says don't trade bitcoin or gold, own them. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a wide-ranging global macro conversation. Brent breaks down the dollar's behavior during geopolitical crises, the deglobalization thesis and fracturing supply chains, and his Rise of the American Empire framework drawing parallels to Rome's transition from republic to empire. They cover the Office of Strategic Capital's push to secure critical minerals and semiconductors, the US-China power competition over chips and rare earths, Persian Gulf risks including fertilizer disruptions and famine, and close with stablecoins, bitcoin as a pure play on global liquidity, and why digital assets are here to stay. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Yaël Ossowski, Fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to break down the escalating standoff between Anthropic and the Pentagon. They examine how Claude was reportedly used in the Venezuela raid, why Anthropic is drawing a hard line against warrantless surveillance and autonomous weapons, and the political fault lines forming between AI safety and permissionless innovation. Yaël unpacks the third party doctrine and its direct implications for Bitcoiners’ financial privacy, and they close with a look at how the massive AI capex buildout is reshaping the U.S. economy and what it means for Bitcoin in the broader macro picture. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down why Anthropic's Claude has displaced Donald Trump as the single most important force driving global macro and financial markets, walking through the system-level evidence including IBM dropping 12% on a single AI headline, Block cutting 40% of its workforce, trucking capacity sold out from data center buildout, and Treasury yields falling in direct response to new model releases. He connects the AI arms race to US economic statecraft, the fight to outpace China, and what a disinflationary labor market shock means for Fed policy, credit spreads, and Bitcoin. 📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. 📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe 🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. 📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer 📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial 🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch ⛓️ ₿lock Height 938641 ⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik sits down with Sam Baker, Research at River, to break down River's second annual Bitcoin adoption report, covering how institutional ownership, registered investment advisors, sovereign holdings, and small business adoption all accelerated in 2025 despite price weakness. Sam explains why individual ownership likely peaked in 2024, why RIAs managing $146 trillion hold less than one basis point in Bitcoin, and what the ownership distribution trend implies for the decade ahead. Nik connects the data to his framework of Bitcoin as a tool of American economic statecraft in the US-China competition for global capital dominance.Episode links: https://river.com/learn/files/river-bitcoin-adoption-report-2026.pdfhttps://x.com/River/status/2026322299595432323?s=20https://btcmap.org/https://x.com/macromule📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 938184⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik walks through our TBL proprietary liquidity index, explaining why the red signal flagged in late December and confirmed in January preceded Bitcoin's sharp decline below $70,000. He breaks down the four inputs driving the current liquidity contraction, with focus on dollar volatility and bond stress, the US-Japan currency relationship, and why early-cycle US credit growth remains the structural argument for improving conditions ahead.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 937304⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s bounce following a softer-than-expected CPI print and falling Treasury yields, analyzing the rollover in the 200-day moving average, the latest negative mining difficulty adjustment, and what shifting liquidity conditions mean for risk assets. He explains why bond markets, dollar strength, and fixed income demand, including Google’s rare 100-year bond issuance, matter more for Bitcoin in the short term than fundamentals, while also revisiting the long-term case tied to global wealth distribution, fiscal deficits, and the evolving role of Bitcoin in U.S. economic statecraft.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 936413⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down dramatic political developments in Japan, including a snap election, currency intervention, and the U.S.-Japan effort to defend the yen, and explains why these moves matter for global liquidity and Bitcoin. He walks through Bitcoin’s drawdown using on-chain metrics like realized price and MVRV, shows why rising volatility and elevated stock correlations point to a macro driven move, and ties Japan’s bond market stress, dollar weakness, and FX intervention directly into TBL Liquidity, framing Bitcoin’s price action as part of a broader system level liquidity shift rather than an isolated market failure.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 935803⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik and Matt Dines break down Bitcoin’s 52% drawdown, focusing on the global liquidity forces pressuring risk assets. They explain how reindustrialization, capital rotation out of software and speculative assets, yen and dollar liquidity stress, and rising volatility across gold, equities, and FX are colliding at once. The conversation reframes Bitcoin’s selloff as a macro-driven liquidity event, not a failure of the asset, and walks through what must stabilize before conditions improve.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. 🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees. 🔨 Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/seed-plates.html▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 935306⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik sits down with TBL on-chain analyst Johan Bergman to break down Bitcoin’s recent breakdown, sell-the-rip behavior, and the on-chain signals flashing bear market conditions. Johan walks through cost basis models, the AVIV Ratio Mean, short-term holder behavior, and why Bitcoin’s November trend break marked a major regime shift. They discuss ETF flows, forced selling, liquidation dynamics, and where real support may emerge next, while separating long-term conviction from short-term market reality.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 934791⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik steps back to assess the massive shifts underway in global markets. With gold surging to record highs, silver collapsing after a historic spike, and Bitcoin struggling versus both gold and the dollar, Nik revisits long-held assumptions about money, Basel III, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and the end of the WTO era. He explains why gold is reentering the monetary system, how Bitcoin still fits into the layered money framework, and what these changes mean for investors navigating a post-globalization world. Link to podcast mentioned: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bias-the-sequel/id1802258017📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 934397⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down the Japan “rate check” that sent the U.S. dollar sharply lower and triggered major moves across global markets. He explains how Japan’s bond stress, rising yields, and yen instability forced coordination with the U.S., why the dollar index breaking long-term support matters for liquidity, and how a weaker dollar is pushing stocks and gold higher. Nik closes by connecting the rate check to TBL Liquidity, why Bitcoin has lagged gold so far, and why a sustained dollar breakdown could be a powerful setup for Bitcoin heading into 2026.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 934035⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down a massive global macro repricing as gold approaches $5,000, bond markets stabilize, and the world adjusts to a new economic order. He walks through key signals across Bitcoin, Treasuries, inflation expectations, labor markets, and global trade to explain why volatility is falling, liquidity conditions are improving, and why Bitcoin’s muted price action may be a feature, not a flaw, of this transition. Nik ties together Davos rhetoric, Supreme Court tariff dynamics, fiscal math, and capital flows to show how markets are responding to structural change heading into 2026.Polymarket Link: https://poly.market/rXYgPKB📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 933577⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik sits down with Brian McCarthy to break down China’s debt-driven growth model, rare earth leverage, and why central planning has created deep structural risks. They explore how China’s manufacturing dominance masks massive capital misallocation, why rare earths have become a geopolitical pressure point, and how a potential unwind could reshape global markets. The discussion ties China’s internal fragility to global liquidity, geopolitical escalation, and the long-term implications for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.Follow Brian's work: https://x.com/briangobosoxhttps://macrolens.substack.com/https://macrolens.com/📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 933274⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down how the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, the administration’s healthcare proposal, and growing pressure on the Federal Reserve are all part of a single fiscal and national security framework. He explains why economic sovereignty, debt servicing costs, and healthcare spending are now central to U.S. policy decisions, and how these forces intersect with interest rates and Fed independence. Nik walks through the unsustainable math behind rising deficits, why lowering rates has become politically unavoidable, and how fiscal stabilization could ultimately support Bitcoin as a long-term store of value heading into 2026.Polymarket link: https://poly.market/uzPASJ2James E. Thorne's Tweet: https://x.com/DrJStrategy/status/2011499438125301970📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 932442⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s strong start to the year as price reclaims key technical levels following a deep but healthy drawdown. He walks through daily, weekly, and structural trend lines to explain why recent higher lows and higher closes matter for Bitcoin’s next move. Nik then zooms out to discuss resistance zones, bull market structure, and what a potential test of the $108,000 to $112,000 range could signal for momentum. He closes with a deeper look at the growing debate around the Federal Reserve, central bank independence, the legacy of Jekyll Island, and why political pressure, market rates, and liquidity dynamics ultimately shape Bitcoin’s long-term path.Link to Nik's Letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/the-delusion-surrounding-centralThe Creature from Jekyll Island: https://www.amazon.com/Creature-Jekyll-Island-Federal-Reserve/dp/091298645X/ref=sr_1_1📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 932179⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik Bhatia and Demian Schatt step back from short-term liquidity signals to examine the global balance sheet and its implications for Bitcoin. They break down why global wealth has decoupled from GDP, how financialization and credit expansion reshaped the world economy, and why policymakers have become increasingly resistant to prolonged contraction. Nik explains how Bitcoin fits into a system with nearly $1 quadrillion in existing net worth, why adoption and credit expansion matter more than simple rotation narratives, and what this framework means for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.Link to article: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/the%20rise%20and%20rise%20of%20the%20global%20balance%20sheet%20how%20productively%20are%20we%20using%20our%20wealth/mgi-the-rise-and-rise-of-the-global-balance-sheet-full-report-vf.pdf📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 931466⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik explains why US Treasury stability is critical for sustained Bitcoin strength by walking through repo markets, bond volatility, and Fed balance sheet dynamics. He breaks down how year-end funding stress, Treasury issuance choices, and inflation trends shape liquidity conditions across the system. Nik shows why stable repo rates and calmer bond markets matter for leveraged Bitcoin buyers, how housing and energy costs feed into inflation expectations, and what improving Treasury stability could mean for Bitcoin as 2026 begins.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 931187⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik sits down with Dr. André Dragosch of Bitwise to break down why large institutional capital is lining up behind Bitcoin heading into 2026. They explore ETF flows, treasury company demand, wirehouse adoption, & why Vanguard’s green light marks a major shift in access for traditional investors. André explains how global growth expectations, bond market stress, & falling confidence in sovereign debt are reshaping capital allocation, setting the stage for Bitcoin to push toward new all-time highs as long-term selling fades and institutional demand accelerates.Find André's work here: https://andredragosch.start.page/📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 929178⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik sits down with astrophysicist and mathematician Dr. Stephen Perrenod to break down Bitcoin’s power law, bubble behavior, and why the familiar four year cycle framework no longer holds. They explore how Bitcoin trades relative to long term trend, why volatility is structurally declining, and how new tiers of capital shape bubble timing through log periodic behavior. Stephen explains why 2025 was not supposed to produce a bubble, why 2021 was a harmonic rather than a peak, and why the next major Bitcoin bubble may arrive closer to 2027 as deeper capital pools emerge.Other Episodes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugQEEM06ZfEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUxuuibXQG4📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 928587⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down why Bitcoin remains resilient despite year-to-date weakness by applying the TBL Liquidity framework. He walks through inflation expectations, energy prices, Treasury yields, and housing costs to explain how policy choices around oil production, affordability, and fiscal math shape liquidity conditions. Nik shows why lower inflation is the key driver for lower yields, how energy prices feed directly into CPI, and what calmer bond markets could mean for Bitcoin heading into 2026.Episode links: https://www.tcw.com/-/media/Downloads/com/Insights/2025/251006-IPO-or-IOU.PDF?rev=9a6fd213f53d4bbc87c5767890483fcb&sc_lang=enhttps://www.theepochtimes.com/us/speaker-johnson-has-a-health-care-plan-heres-whats-in-it-5958410https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sovereign-wealth-funds-were-buyers-173202044.htmlPolymarket: https://poly.market/YCSQFCv📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 928340⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik and Joakim Book break down why Strategy’s balance-sheet structure, perpetual preferred design, and debt flexibility make it uniquely durable while most 2025 Bitcoin treasury companies are already cracking under MNAV compression, leverage mistakes, and collapsing share premiums. They explain how convertible debt, pipe deals, equity dilution, and falling Bitcoin prices have exposed structural flaws across the sector, why forced selling risk is overstated for Strategy but real for smaller firms, and how Tether flows, liquidity dynamics, and equity market pressure shaped this entire cycle. The discussion sets the record straight on why Strategy’s model remains resilient while the rest of the treasury boom faces a hard reset.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 928026⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik and Matt Dines break down the European sovereign stress that has become a major driver of global liquidity and Bitcoin’s recent moves. They walk through the ECB’s need to defend German and French yields, Italy’s push to reclaim gold authority, and why Euro strength signals deeper funding pressure inside Europe. Nik and Matt explain how balance sheet constraints, dollar selling, and capital sourcing across offshore markets pulled liquidity out of Bitcoin, plus how bond spreads, demographic pressures, and geopolitical fractures frame the next phase of this macro cycle.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 927472⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down the White House’s new National Security Strategy and explains why it is the most important document released by the administration so far. He walks through the shift away from globalism, the focus on reshoring industrial capacity, and how defense spending, technology investment, and middle class revitalization tie directly into future market structure. Nik analyzes the new Monroe Doctrine framing, the balance of power approach with China, the administration’s stance on Europe, and how energy dominance, AI, and military production shape credit creation and capital flows. He explains why these policies matter for risk markets, the Treasury market, and Bitcoin’s long term setup as the United States pivots into a new macro regime.Episode links: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdfhttps://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/monroe-doctrinePolymarket: https://poly.market/YCSQFCv📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 926566⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down why the Fed is effectively locked into a rate cut next week as repo tightness eases, QT halts, and Treasury interest expense reaches historic levels. He covers how falling yields, weaker dollar action, & a turning liquidity cycle are shaping Bitcoin’s path as it holds near $90,000. Nik also dives into bond volatility, the debt math forcing lower rates, & what TBL Liquidity is signaling for Bitcoin & risk assets going into year end.Episode links: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 926201⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down why US Treasury interest expense has become the most important story in finance, how lower rates are now a mathematical necessity for the United States, and why bond volatility remains the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price. He explains the pressure inside the repo market, the role of Japanese yields in recent volatility, the dollar’s evolving relationship with China, and how Bitcoin is holding its two year trend despite sharp macro turbulence. Nik also details why the Fed will eventually need to expand its balance sheet, how liquidity flows are shifting across global markets, and what this all signals for Bitcoin as it consolidates above $90,000.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 926201⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Demian and Johan unpack Bitcoin’s recent trend break, the shift into bear territory on several on chain metrics, and why the short term holder cost basis and true market mean are now critical levels. They cover the liquidation cascade that started in October, the divergence in put call positioning across exchanges, the sharp drop in open interest, and the surprising strength of the most recent WIC off $80,000. Johan explains how trend structure, RSI momentum, realized profit behavior, and valuation zones fit together, what would confirm a reversal, and why the four year cycle may be losing relevance as Bitcoin matures into an institutional asset.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 925340⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down whether Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings report can be the spark that turns momentum positive for Bitcoin as it tests the crucial $87,000 to $90,000 support. He walks through the money markets monitor, the TGA rollover, and how shifts in reserves, repo usage, and liquidity flows may have driven the recent drawdown across stocks and Bitcoin. Nik analyzes the Fed corridor, the standing repo facility, Treasury supply dynamics, bond volatility, and what growing correlations between Bitcoin and equities say about the path forward. He explains why the next few weeks hinge on liquidity, volatility, and whether the combined boost from Nvidia earnings and TGA spending can stabilize risk markets.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 924358⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s sharp fall through $100,000 and explains how a surge in volatility across stocks, bonds, and the dollar has triggered a broad liquidity drain. He explores the Luke Oil divestiture pressure, Treasury sanctions, and why forced asset sales are pulling capital out of risk markets. Nik walks through the TBL Liquidity Index, the new sell signal triggered in late October, and the critical $87,000 to $88,000 support area on Bitcoin that will define whether the bull trend stays intact. He compares Bitcoin with gold, reviews stock market stress, and looks ahead to income-driven liquidity tailwinds expected in 2026.Links:https://x.com/LeveredUSTs/status/1990500503848095833?s=20https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-14/lukoil-talks-to-bidders-for-global-assets-to-avert-supply-issues?sref=ieet9cdIhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-paves-way-talks-sale-lukoils-foreign-assets-2025-11-14/📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 924081⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000, why key trend lines matter, and how TBL Liquidity flipped negative ahead of the move. He covers the failed $108,000 level, the critical support zones near $96.000 and $87,000, the rise in bond volatility, and tightness in the repo market as SOFR hits the ceiling. Nik also explains how the government reopening and TGA spend down may affect reserves, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s path from here.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 923634⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik and Demian break down the connection between credit creation, inflation, and productivity, exploring why the world’s debt keeps growing faster than real wealth. Nik explains how money enters the system, when it becomes inflationary, and how productivity can offset rising prices. They discuss McKinsey’s global balance sheet framework, the difference between paper wealth and real wealth, and how Bitcoin could serve as new collateral in a re-collateralized financial system built for long-term stability and growth.Link to Nik's latest report: https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/the-macroeconomy-seeks-productivityLink to McKinsey's report: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey%20global%20institute/our%20research/out%20of%20balance%20whats%20next%20for%20growth%20wealth%20and%20debt/out-of-balance-whats-next-for-growth-wealth-and-debt.pdf📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 923363⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik explains why Bitcoin rallied on the news that the U.S. government may soon reopen. He breaks down how Treasury spending, reserves, and deposits move through the financial system, eventually fueling Bitcoin demand. Using a simple four-balance-sheet setup, Nik teaches how TBL Liquidity connects government spending, bank balance sheets, and Bitcoin’s price performance. 📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 923061⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down the latest global macro data and Bitcoin’s reaction to shifting liquidity conditions around the $100,000 level. He covers repo market tightness, U.S. credit card debt trends, Treasury issuance plans, and debt-to-GDP stability. Nik also compares Bitcoin’s performance to gold, explores what MVRV and realized price reveal about market health, and explains how TBL Liquidity captures the link between funding, risk assets, and Bitcoin’s price action.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 922667⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik and Demian unpack how the Fed’s fight to manage repo market tightness is reshaping liquidity and Bitcoin’s price behavior. They break down the balance between inflation, employment, and the Fed’s “unofficial” financial stability mandate, exploring how fiscal dominance and credit creation now drive global money flows more than monetary policy itself. Nik explains why Bitcoin acts as a liquidity asset, not a safe haven, and how the next cycle will be defined by the real economy, not Fed narratives.📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 922385⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.