The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory

Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs  13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman 40:19: Nate Silver 40:51: Crane's model's vulnerabilities 42:59: Silver and Lichtman 49:44: Academic models 49:58: Assessing Crane's model 51:04: Follow Crane Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers  Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv