The Pain Factor: Why markets anticipate a long Hormuz closure

In this episode, Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by special guest Victor Ponsford, an independent energy strategic communications consultant, to discuss wide-ranging impacts of US/Israeli war in Iran on global LNG and gas markets.The conversation delves into the likely duration of the Hormuz closure, and why political and military factors are conspiring to keep this strategic maritime chokepoint closed for months rather than weeks.They discuss how physical and financial market players in the European gas market are positioning to manage risk and capitalise on the repercussions of prolonged loss of 20% of global LNG supply.And they explore the yawning gap between political rhetoric and physical reality on the ground in the Persian Gulf.Article referenced:US LNG war profits, quantified (Energy Flux)Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation (Energy Flux)Chapters00:00 Welcome to the Podcast and Guest Introduction02:30 Hormuz Crisis Duration, and the Pain Factor in Diplomacy05:31 US LNG Windfall Profits: Winners & Losers from Iran War11:00 Impact on US Consumers and America's Domestic Gas Market18:25 Diverse Uses of LNG Across Emerging Markets24:19 Politics and Market Perception of Hormuz Closure32:26 Impact of Unforeseen Outages and Future Market ConditionsSign up to the free Energy Flux newsletter (link)