The Price of Optimism

The Price of OptimismThe Thread · Issue #7 · June 29, 2026A rocket company went public, the stock soared and then gave much of it back — and underneath the noise sits a plainer question: when you buy a stock like this, what are you actually buying? This issue traces the gap between a company's fundamentals and its story, and why you may already own a piece of the most-talked-about stock on the market without ever choosing to.Chapters0:00 — The couple's question1:25 — What you're actually buying: fundamentals vs. story3:30 — SpaceX: five companies in one ticker4:50 — The valuation gap: $2T vs. $780B6:45 — A great product isn't a good investment8:00 — What moves the price without moving the business9:45 — Why you may already own it11:20 — What to do with this12:45 — CloseSources and further readingSpaceX first-week surge, float, and the Nasdaq "human spirit" quote — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.htmlCurrent valuation — Investing.comhttps://www.investing.com/equities/spacexMorningstar's $780B fair-value estimate — NPRhttps://www.npr.org/2026/06/12/nx-s1-5855004/stock-ai-spacex-ipo-elon-musk2025 revenue and net loss — Morningstarhttps://www.morningstar.com/stocks/6-charts-spacexs-s-1-financialsAI venture renting compute to rivals — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/google-to-pay-spacex-920-million-a-month-for-xai-compute-capacity.html$25 billion debt sale — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/23/spacex-debt-bond-market-ipo.htmlHow index funds are adding SpaceX — Morningstarhttps://www.morningstar.com/funds/spacex-ipo-how-index-funds-are-adaptingS&P 500 holding out — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/spacex-blocked-from-early-us-benchmark-index-entry-as-sp-reaffirms-existing-rules.htmlRivian owner satisfaction — Consumer Reportshttps://www.consumerreports.org/cars/rivian/r1t/2025/owner-satisfaction/Read the full piece: https://matthewgdavis.substack.comAbout The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly essay and audio edition from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and life, and traces it back to the economy — so you understand not just what's happening to you, but why. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com