The Thread

The Shade We Sit UnderThe Thread · August 24, 2026My grandfather kept certificates of deposit spread across bank after bank, every account under the federal insurance limit, tracked by hand on a spreadsheet for years. He was using a system built in 1933 by people who were mostly gone before anyone stopped noticing it worked. This episode is about protections that disappear when they succeed — deposit insurance, acid rain, lead, the ozone layer — why the costs are always visible and the benefits never are, and what happens to savers who find the edge of the perimeter the hard way.CHAPTERS0:00 — The spreadsheet2:10 — Why it existed: 19334:35 — March 2023 and the edge of the floor6:30 — Yotta, Synapse, and the apps in your pocket8:25 — Acid rain, lead, and the ozone layer9:55 — Who gets a bill10:50 — The objection worth taking seriously11:45 — Planting for a season you won't seeSOURCES AND FURTHER READINGFDIC, A Brief History of Deposit Insurance in the United Stateshttps://www.fdic.gov/resources/publications/brief-history-of-deposit-insurance/book/brief-history-deposit-insurance-1.pdfFDIC, The 1930shttps://www.fdic.gov/history/1930-1939Yale Journal of Financial Crises, on the 1933 bank holiday and Treasury licensinghttps://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1654&context=journal-of-financial-crisesNBER working paper, on bank reopenings after the holidayhttps://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31088/revisions/w31088.rev1.pdfJournal of Financial Economics, on deposits returning before insurance existedhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X24001910Federal Reserve Office of Inspector General, material loss review of Silicon Valley Bankhttps://oig.federalreserve.gov/reports/board-material-loss-review-silicon-valley-bank-sep2023.pdfCNBC, on Michael Barr's testimony about the withdrawal attemptshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/svb-customers-tried-to-pull-nearly-all-deposits-in-two-days-barr-says.htmlFortune, on Fed economists comparing SVB to 1930s rural bankshttps://fortune.com/2023/05/15/svb-signature-collapse-1930s-rural-banks-failures-fed-economists/American Banker, on California's consent order against Yottahttps://www.americanbanker.com/news/california-fines-yotta-1m-for-deceiving-saversNBC News, on the bankruptcy trustee's findingshttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/synapse-bankruptcy-trustee-says-85-million-customer-savings-missing-fi-rcna156108Banking Dive, on the CFPB action and the victim compensation fundhttps://www.bankingdive.com/news/cfpb-sues-synapse-plans-use-victims-fund-pay-end-users/758776/Banking Dive, on the $1 million California finehttps://www.bankingdive.com/news/california-fines-yotta-1-million-customers-still-out-millions/820764/CBS News, on payment apps and deposit insurancehttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/paypal-cash-app-venmo-payment-apps-deposit-insurance-cfpb/EPA, Acid Rain Program resultshttps://epa.gov/acidrain/acid-rain-program-resultsEPA, power sector emissions reductions progress reporthttps://www.epa.gov/power-sector/progress-report-emissions-reductionsCDC, MMWR on blood lead levels in American childrenhttps://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043a4.htmWorld Meteorological Organization, on ozone layer recoveryhttps://wmo.int/media/news/small-and-short-lived-2025-ozone-hole-confirms-long-term-recovery-trendREAD THE FULL PIECEhttps://matthewgdavis.substack.comABOUT THE THREADThe Thread is a biweekly essay by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, a fee-only registered investment adviser in Westlake Village, California. Each issue starts with something people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy — so you understand not just what's happening to you, but why. Following the connections that shape your financial life. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

The Thread · Issue #10 · August 10, 2026The housing market didn't just get expensive — it stopped moving. This issue traces why: a building shortage that never recovered, a rate-lock freeze that's uniquely American, and a downsizing math that keeps owners in place while a whole generation waits outside. The result locks some people in and shuts others out, and the only force that reliably loosens it is building.Chapters0:00 — A studio behind a side gate2:15 — A shortage, then a traffic jam3:10 — The correction that never came5:15 — Why the thirty-year mortgage is uniquely American7:20 — Downsizing, from my side of the desk9:40 — The traffic jam: how the moving chain froze11:20 — The homes that were never built12:40 — Who this lands on — and what to actually doSources and further readingWhere the thirty-year fixed sits now (Freddie Mac PMMS):https://www.freddiemac.com/pmmsInstitutional investors as a minor factor in prices (Freddie Mac research):https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20220609-what-drove-home-price-growth-and-can-it-continueInstitutional investors as a small share of the market (Urban Institute):https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/will-regulating-large-institutional-investors-actually-make-housing-more-affordableNew limits on the largest investors (the Road to Housing Act, via CNBC):https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/11/21st-century-road-to-housing-act-homebuyers-sellers.htmlThe mortgage rate lock-in effect, measured (Federal Housing Finance Agency):https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp2403Rate lock as ~40% of the price gap (Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies):https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research-areas/working-papers/mortgage-rate-lock-and-house-pricesHistory of the FHA and the long-term mortgage (HUD):https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/fhahistoryHomeownership rate, historical series (US Census Bureau):https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.htmlThe thirty-year mortgage and ownership (Ed Pinto, American Enterprise Institute):https://www.aei.org/housing-center/housing-finance/housing-finance-fact-or-fiction-fha-pioneered-the-30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-during-the-great-depression/The capital-gains home-sale exclusion (IRS):https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc701Property-tax transfer for homeowners over 55 (California Proposition 19):https://www.boe.ca.gov/prop19/Moving chains research (Evan Mast, Journal of Urban Economics):https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119021000656The supply side of the housing challenge (St. Louis Fed):https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/supply-side-of-us-housing-challengeYoung adults living with parents, 2000–2017 (Urban Institute):https://www.urban.org/research/publication/young-adults-living-parents-basementsHousing costs and young adults, by income and metro (Urban Institute):https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/high-housing-costs-are-keeping-more-young-adults-their-parents-homesAbout The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly essay from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners — following the connections that shape your financial life. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy: a calmer way to stay informed. Read and subscribe at matthewgdavis.substack.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

Will It Still Be There?The Thread · Issue #9 · July 27, 2026The retirement trust fund is projected to run short in 2032 — and the honest translation of "runs out" isn't "gone." This issue traces what the headline gets right, what it gets wrong, and why a problem this well documented still hasn't been fixed. The answer has almost nothing to do with the math.Chapters0:00 — Will it still be there? The question every client asks1:30 — What Social Security is, and why we built it3:15 — Why it's at risk: the demographics underneath4:45 — What 2032 actually means7:00 — Why a 22% cut hits deeper than a percentage8:45 — Can they actually do this? Flemming v. Nestor and the promise10:15 — It can be fixed — and it has been before12:45 — The common thread: attention, not fearSources and further readingElderly poverty, 1959 (NBER):https://www.nber.org/bah/2004number2/social-security-and-elderly-povertyReport of the Committee on Economic Security to Roosevelt, 1935 (SSA History):https://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/ces/ces5.htmlPoverty without Social Security, official measure (Census Bureau, via the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service):https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45791Worker-to-retiree ratio, 2026 Trustees context (J.P. Morgan Asset Management):https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/retirement-insights/hot-topic-social-security-2026-trustee-report-context-clarity-path-ahead/Life expectancy at 65, historical (SSA History):https://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html2032 depletion, Trustees summary (SSA):https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/Combined-fund date, 2034 (SSA press release):https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2026-06-09.htmlProjected reductions (Congressional Budget Office):https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62271Average monthly cut near $500 (CRFB, via Fortune):https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/social-security-24-percent-cut-2032-crfb-scott-bessent-back-door/Your earnings record (SSA my Account):https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/Flemming v. Nestor, 1960 (SSA History):https://www.ssa.gov/history/nestor.htmlThe taxable-wage cap (CNBC):https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/million-dollar-earners-social-security-2026.htmlRead the full piecehttps://matthewgdavis.substack.com [replace with the final issue URL at publish]About The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly essay from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners — following the connections that shape your financial life. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy: a calmer way to stay informed. Read and subscribe at matthewgdavis.substack.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

Why Cheap Energy Can’t Reach Us Yet The Thread · Issue #8 · July 13, 2026You keep hearing energy is getting cheaper, but your bill only climbs. Both are true — and the gap between them is the whole story. This issue takes an electric bill apart: why the cost of making power has collapsed to the cheapest in history, why that’s the one part of your bill behaving, and why the real climb is in the wires and the fire. It ends where the hope is — cheap local power, batteries, and what all of it lets us do next.ChaptersEstimated — will refine after audio QC.0:00 — Open0:30 — Ray, and the bill that keeps climbing2:00 — The cheapest power we’ve ever made4:30 — So cheap it goes negative (and gets spilled)6:30 — The fear that quietly faded8:00 — Two things sharing one bill: generation vs. delivery10:30 — Wires and fire13:00 — Both things are true14:30 — What cheap power lets us do next: remote grids, batteries, Australia17:30 — So what do you do with thisSources and further readingLazard, cost of building new power by source (solar/wind cheapest for the tenth year; new gas at a ten-year high):https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energyplus-lcoeplus/Our World in Data, long-run collapse in solar panel prices:https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growthNegative wholesale prices in Southern California (~1,180 hours in 2024):https://resurety.com/article-negative-prices-in-caiso/EIA, California curtailed 3.4 million MWh of wind and solar in 2024 (93% solar), and the solutions:https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65364Haas / Energy Institute at UC Berkeley, generation is a minority of a California bill:https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/report-reveals-inequity-in-electricity-pricing-calls-for-rate-reform-to-help-fight-climate-change/Severin Borenstein on why California rates are high (delivery, not generation):https://www.energysage.com/news/ca-electricity-rates-increase-96-percent-2014-to-2024/EIA, California residential electricity price (~35 cents/kWh):https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/California rates up ~40% since 2019, steepest in the nation (Energy Institute at UC Berkeley):https://www.edhat.com/california/news/california-sees-nations-largest-electricity-rate-increase-up-39-since-2019/Wildfire as a growing share of a California utility’s costs:https://www.solarwithwatts.com/eds-blog/why-is-electricity-so-expensive-in-californiaSCE rate advisory (wildfire self-insurance):https://www.sce.com/save-money/rates-financing/sce-rate-advisoryIEA, rising cable and transformer prices:https://www.iea.org/news/rising-component-prices-and-supply-chain-pressures-are-hindering-the-development-of-transmission-grid-infrastructurePowerMag, transformer demand and shortages:https://www.powermag.com/transformers-in-2026-shortage-scramble-or-self-inflicted-crisis/Yale E360, PG&E remote grids replacing fire-prone lines:https://e360.yale.edu/digest/microgrids-power-linesT&D World, the Briceburg remote grid through a 2021 wildfire:https://www.tdworld.com/distributed-energy-resources/article/21278234/pge-remote-grid-delivers-wildfire-safety-and-ratepayer-savingsCAISO, California battery storage growth (2020–2025):https://www.caiso.com/documents/2024-special-report-on-battery-storage-may-29-2025.pdfClean Energy Council, Australia rooftop solar at scale:https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news-resources/rooftop-solar-and-storage-report-july-to-dec-2025Read the full pieceThe written edition, with every source linked inline: https://matthewgdavis.substack.com/About The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly essay by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, following the connections between the economic forces and the everyday financial decisions they shape. One thread per issue, pulled slowly, from what you’re feeling about money back to the systems underneath it.Compliance disclosureThe full compliance disclosure for this episode is available with the text of this post, at matthewgdavis.substack.com. This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

The Price of OptimismThe Thread · Issue #7 · June 29, 2026A rocket company went public, the stock soared and then gave much of it back — and underneath the noise sits a plainer question: when you buy a stock like this, what are you actually buying? This issue traces the gap between a company's fundamentals and its story, and why you may already own a piece of the most-talked-about stock on the market without ever choosing to.Chapters0:00 — The couple's question1:25 — What you're actually buying: fundamentals vs. story3:30 — SpaceX: five companies in one ticker4:50 — The valuation gap: $2T vs. $780B6:45 — A great product isn't a good investment8:00 — What moves the price without moving the business9:45 — Why you may already own it11:20 — What to do with this12:45 — CloseSources and further readingSpaceX first-week surge, float, and the Nasdaq "human spirit" quote — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.htmlCurrent valuation — Investing.comhttps://www.investing.com/equities/spacexMorningstar's $780B fair-value estimate — NPRhttps://www.npr.org/2026/06/12/nx-s1-5855004/stock-ai-spacex-ipo-elon-musk2025 revenue and net loss — Morningstarhttps://www.morningstar.com/stocks/6-charts-spacexs-s-1-financialsAI venture renting compute to rivals — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/google-to-pay-spacex-920-million-a-month-for-xai-compute-capacity.html$25 billion debt sale — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/23/spacex-debt-bond-market-ipo.htmlHow index funds are adding SpaceX — Morningstarhttps://www.morningstar.com/funds/spacex-ipo-how-index-funds-are-adaptingS&P 500 holding out — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/spacex-blocked-from-early-us-benchmark-index-entry-as-sp-reaffirms-existing-rules.htmlRivian owner satisfaction — Consumer Reportshttps://www.consumerreports.org/cars/rivian/r1t/2025/owner-satisfaction/Read the full piece: https://matthewgdavis.substack.comAbout The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly essay and audio edition from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and life, and traces it back to the economy — so you understand not just what's happening to you, but why. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

What Did We Borrow For?The Thread · Special Report · June 22, 2026Episode summaryA client in his early sixties asked me a question I couldn't put down: we've borrowed tens of trillions of dollars — where did it all go, and who actually pays it off? This special report pulls that thread. Almost all of it went to making the present easier — cushioning two crises, cutting taxes, fighting wars — and very little to building the future. Now the interest bill has crossed a trillion dollars a year, and the bill is coming due just as the generation meant to pay it grows smaller. The number isn't destiny. It's the sum of choices we can still see clearly enough to act on.ChaptersEstimated — will refine after audio QC0:00 — Cold open0:25 — Ron's question: where did it all go?1:14 — Putting the number in proportion2:18 — Where it all went3:45 — The cost of carrying it5:14 — Why this time is different6:26 — Ron's date: Social Security's math8:09 — Not a cliff, a decision9:41 — What I'd actually tell Ron10:54 — The common thread12:11 — Where to read the full pieceSources and further readingThe number and the proportionThe 2001 surplus and CBO's projection to pay off the debt, plus the breakdown of how the debt rose since — including the share passed with bipartisan votes — Committee for a Responsible Federal Budgethttps://www.crfb.org/papers/riches-rags-causes-fiscal-deterioration-2001The current national debt (above $39 trillion) — U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Datahttps://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/Debt as a share of GDP, and the interest-cost projections — Congressional Budget Officehttps://www.cbo.gov/publication/61882The cost of carrying itThe federal interest bill crossing $1 trillion a year (and how it compares with defense and Medicaid) — American Action Forum, on CBO's February 2026 outlookhttps://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/highlights-of-cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook/The 30-year Treasury auction clearing 5% — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/treasurys-yields-inflation-traders-fed-interest-rates.htmlWhy this time is differentDefense spending after World War II, and why today's fiscal outlook is harder — Peter G. Peterson Foundationhttps://www.pgpf.org/article/why-is-the-us-fiscal-outlook-more-daunting-now-than-after-world-war-ii/The ratio of workers to Social Security beneficiaries — Peter G. Peterson Foundationhttps://www.pgpf.org/article/the-ratio-of-workers-to-social-security-beneficiaries-is-at-a-low-and-projected-to-decline-further/The worker-to-beneficiary ratio falling below 2.5 — Bipartisan Policy Centerhttps://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/immigration-social-security-solvency/Social Security's trust-fund projections — Social Security Administration, Trustees Summaryhttps://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/Read the full pieceThe written edition includes every source linked inline and all four charts embedded directly.https://matthewgdavis.substack.comRelated — why the cost of an ordinary life keeps climbing (Issue #4):https://matthewgdavis.substack.com/p/the-thread-issue-4-may-18-2026About The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It follows the connections between the economic and political stories shaping your financial life — for readers and listeners who want a calm, data-driven lens on a noisy news cycle.Compliance disclosureMatthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC (”Sherwood”). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

The Thread — Issue #6 | June 15, 2026When Coverage Doesn't Reach CareEpisode summaryCoverage in America is near record highs, and we spend more on healthcare than any nation on earth — yet an insurance card keeps turning out to be a smaller promise than people expect. This issue follows that gap across three fronts: where Medicare stops at the nursing-home door, why more of the best providers are leaving insurance behind, and how "ghost networks" fill plan directories with doctors who never answer. What your card says you have, and what you can actually get, have quietly drifted apart — and the distance has real consequences for your money.ChaptersEstimated — will refine after audio QC0:00 — Cold open0:21 — The promise, and where it stops2:55 — Coverage at record highs, care out of reach4:04 — The best providers are opting out6:31 — Why providers are leaving7:44 — When the network is a ghost9:17 — What this means for you11:21 — The common thread12:42 — Where to read the full pieceSources and further readingMedicare and nursing-home costsMedicare's skilled nursing facility coverage and the 20-to-100-day rules — Medicare.govhttps://www.medicare.gov/coverage/skilled-nursing-facility-careNational median cost of nursing-home care — CareScout (Genworth) Cost of Carehttps://www.carescout.com/cost-of-careCoverage and national health spendingACA marketplace premiums after the enhanced subsidies expired — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/how-much-aca-premiums-spiked-after-enhanced-subsidies-ended.htmlNational health expenditures (5.3 trillion dollars; about 15,474 dollars per person; 18% of GDP) — CMShttps://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/historicalHow U.S. health spending compares with other wealthy countries — Peterson-KFF Health System Trackerhttps://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-spending-u-s-compare-countries/Providers leaving insurancePsychotherapist and psychiatrist insurance acceptance in Georgia — Medical Care (2025)https://journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcare/fulltext/2025/02000/factors_associated_with_psychotherapist_and.6.aspxPsychiatrists' acceptance of private insurance — Bishop et al., JAMA Psychiatry (2014)https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3967759Growth of concierge and direct primary care — Johns Hopkins / Health Affairshttps://hub.jhu.edu/2025/12/18/concierge-medicine-rising-hopkins-research/MRI prices: hospital vs. freestanding imaging center — GoodRxhttps://www.goodrx.com/health-topic/diagnostics/how-much-does-an-mri-costGhost networksSenate Finance Committee "secret shopper" study of Medicare Advantage mental-health directorieshttps://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/wyden-calls-for-action-to-get-rid-of-ghost-networks-releases-secret-shopper-studyNew York investigation finding most listed providers unreachable or not in-network — ProPublicahttps://www.propublica.org/article/ghost-networks-health-insurance-regulatorsFree help with your own coverageState Health Insurance Assistance Program — free, one-on-one Medicare counselinghttps://www.shiphelp.org/Medicare — official sitehttps://www.medicare.gov/KFF — plain-language health policy explainershttps://www.kff.org/HealthCare.gov — the official insurance marketplacehttps://www.healthcare.gov/Read the full pieceThe written edition includes every source linked inline and the charts embedded directly.https://matthewgdavis.substack.comAbout The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It follows the connections between the economic and political stories shaping your financial life — for readers and listeners who want a calm, data-driven lens on a noisy news cycle.Compliance disclosureMatthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC (”Sherwood”). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

The Thread — Issue #5 | June 1, 2026The Good You Can't SeeIn a year of mostly bad headlines, here are three things that are quietly, measurably going right in America — homicide at a modern low, cancer survival transformed, lives lengthened — plus the abundance hiding in plain sight. This issue is about why the good news is so hard to see, and what that invisibility costs the institutions doing the slow work.Chapters (estimated — will refine after audio QC)0:00 — Open0:20 — What I'm pulling at1:30 — The good you can't see: homicide, cancer, longevity5:30 — The abundance that doesn't reach you8:30 — Why you can't see it10:30 — The cost of not seeing13:30 — The common thread14:20 — Close and disclosuresSources and further readingThe good you can't seeCouncil on Criminal Justice — Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2025 Updatehttps://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2025-update/Stateline — US crime rates fell nationwide in 2024https://stateline.org/2025/08/08/us-crime-rates-fell-nationwide-in-2024-fbi-report-says/Congressional Research Service — early-1990s crime wavehttps://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12281ABC News — US poised to end 2025 with the largest one-year drop in homicideshttps://abcnews.com/US/us-poised-end-2025-largest-year-drop-homicides/story?id=128646976National Cancer Institute, SEER Program — survival, all cancers combinedhttps://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/all.htmlAACR Cancer Progress Report 2025https://cancerprogressreport.aacr.org/progress/cpr25-contents/cpr25-cancer-in-2025/CDC National Center for Health Statistics — life expectancyhttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db521.htmThe abundance that doesn't reach youFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — real GDP per capita, series A939RX0Q048SBEAhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEABureau of Labor Statistics — productivityhttps://www.bls.gov/productivity/Why you can't see itGapminder — Rosling "Factfulness" knowledge quizhttps://upgrader.gapminder.org/The cost of not seeingFinancial Crisis Inquiry Commission reporthttps://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-FCICKFF — opioid overdose deaths, national trendshttps://www.kff.org/mental-health/opioid-overdose-deaths-national-trends-and-variation-by-demographics-and-states/Congressional Research Service — 737 MAX certification reformhttps://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12843Washington Post — 2018 stress-test rollback for mid-sized bankshttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/03/silicon-valley-bank-stress-test/IQVIA — prescription opioid volumes down 60% from 2011 peakhttps://www.iqvia.com/newsroom/2020/12/prescription-opioid-use-in-the-us-has-declined-by-60-from-2011-peak-according-to-new-report-from-theCDC — statement on provisional 2024 overdose deathshttps://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2025/2025-statement-from-cdcs-national-center-for-injury-prevention-and-control-on-provisional-2024.htmlFederal Reservehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/Read the full piece[Issue #5 Substack URL — add on publish]About The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly briefing that connects the biggest economic and political stories — the ones actually shaping what you pay, what you earn, and what you can afford — and follows them back to what's really going on underneath. Hosted by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, a fee-only RIA in California. Authoritative about the facts. Curious about what they mean. Never alarmist, never partisan. A calmer way to stay informed.DisclosuresMatthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC ("Sherwood"). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

The Cupboards Are FullThe middle-class deal didn't get harder. It got retired.Matthew walks through the single chart that explains why one generation looks at American life and sees abundance while the next feels structurally crushed. Through Sarah — a composite client whose numbers don't reconcile no matter how disciplined she is — the special report follows the gap between the categories that got cheap (everything in your living room) and the categories that got expensive (everything you actually need to live). And then: what you can actually do with this if your math feels like Sarah's.Chapters0:00 — Welcome and intro0:35 — Sarah's question (why two generations see different economies)2:30 — The Chart of the Century5:00 — Sarah's actual numbers7:45 — The levers are gone10:00 — Baumol's cost disease (and why it's not the whole story)11:30 — Four institutional choices that make the U.S. version worse14:45 — The new discipline: a reframe, not a fix17:00 — Geography as the biggest lever18:30 — The harder truth19:45 — CloseEstimated — will refine after audio QC.Sources and further readingMark Perry, "Chart of the Century" (updated through December 2025), American Enterprise Institute. The chart referenced throughout, tracking BLS Consumer Price Index data for fourteen categories of American spending since 2000.https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-8/Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM). Monthly index tracking the share of median household income needed to afford the median-priced home.https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/home-ownership-affordability-monitorWilliam J. Baumol and William G. Bowen, Performing Arts: The Economic Dilemma (1966). The original framing of what later became known as Baumol's cost disease.Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, "How does health spending in the U.S. compare to other countries?" The source for the U.S.-versus-comparable-countries healthcare cost comparison.https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-spending-u-s-compare-countries/KFF, 2025 Employer Health Benefits Survey. The annual benchmark for employer-sponsored health insurance premiums and worker contribution shares.https://www.kff.org/health-costs/2025-employer-health-benefits-survey/Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, "Five Ways Residential Mobility Has Changed in the Pandemic Era." The source for the post-2020 migration patterns referenced in the geography section.https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-ways-residential-mobility-has-changed-pandemic-eraAmerican Hospital Association, Fact Sheet on Graduate Medical Education residency caps. Background on the 1997 Balanced Budget Act cap and the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act of 2025.https://www.aha.org/medical-educationteaching-hospitals/physician-leaders/medical-educationRead the full pieceThe written edition includes all the sources linked inline and the chart embedded directly.https://matthewgdavis.substack.comAbout The ThreadThe Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It follows the connections between the economic and political stories shaping your financial life — for readers and listeners who want a calm, data-driven lens on a noisy news cycle. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

The Thread — Issue #4Why markets feel fragile when the headline numbers don'tThe economy looks competitive on the surface — dozens of car brands, multiple big online retailers, a drugstore on every corner. Underneath, the math doesn't quite work that way. This issue walks through three places where competitive pressure has been quietly disabled: cars, online retail, and pharmacy/primary care. The visible measure is concentration. The variable that actually decides whether a market works for you is whether the dominant firms still have to compete.CHAPTERS(Estimated — will refine after audio QC.)0:00 — Open0:30 — What I'm pulling at: a friend conversation about TVs and cars2:00 — Why your TV got cheaper and your car didn't6:30 — When the lowest price isn't really the lowest (the Amazon emails)9:30 — When one company is the doctor and the drugstore (CVS Health)12:30 — The Common ThreadSOURCES AND FURTHER READINGOn cars and competition- Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book — December 2025 average transaction price report https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/dec-2025-atp-report/- USTR — Section 301 final tariff modifications (Federal Register, September 2024) https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/09/18/2024-21217/notice-of-modification-chinas-acts-policies-and-practices-related-to-technology-transfer- BIS — Connected Vehicles Final Rule (Federal Register, January 2025) https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/16/2025-00592/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain-connected-vehiclesOn the Amazon case- California Attorney General — release on unsealed Amazon supplier emails https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/naming-names-attorney-general-bonta-secures-public-access-evidence-amazon-price- California Attorney General — release on April 16, 2026 summary-judgment denial https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-delivers-prime-victory-against-amazon-ongoing-price- FTC v. Amazon.com, Inc. — federal antitrust case page https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/cases-proceedings/1910129-1910130-amazoncom-inc-amazon-ecommerceOn CVS, PBMs, and vertical integration- CVS Health completes acquisition of Aetna (November 2018) https://investors.cvshealth.com/news/news-details/2018/CVS-Health-Completes-Acquisition-of-Aetna-Marking-the-Start-of-Transforming-the-Consumer-Health-Experience/default.aspx- CVS Health completes acquisition of Signify Health (March 2023) https://www.signifyhealth.com/news/cvs-health-completes-acquisition-of-signify-health- CVS Health completes acquisition of Oak Street Health (May 2023) https://www.cvshealth.com/news/company-news/cvs-health-completes-acquisition-of-oak-street-health.html- FTC — Pharmacy Benefit Managers interim staff report (July 2024) https://www.ftc.gov/reports/pharmacy-benefit-managers-report- Patients Before Monopolies Act — bipartisan reintroduction (Warren / Hawley / Harshbarger / Auchincloss, May 2026) https://auchincloss.house.gov/media/press-releases/release-auchincloss-warren-harshbarger-hawley-reintroduce-bipartisan-legislation-to-rein-in-pharmacy-benefit-managers-pbms-cut-drug-costsOn the bipartisan diagnosis- Lina Khan — Stone Lecture at Harvard Kennedy School (fall 2025) https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/wiener/publications/lina-khan-stone-lecture- JD Vance at RemedyFest — Washington Examiner coverage https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/2889190/vance-ftc-lina-khan-doing-good-job-break-with-gop/- U.S. Senate roll call vote on Khan's FTC confirmation, June 15, 2021 https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1171/vote_117_1_00233.htmRead the full piece, with every source linked inline:https://matthewgdavis.substack.comABOUT THE THREADThe Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, a fee-only RIA in California. Each issue follows the connections between the economic and political stories that shape your financial life — calm, non-partisan, data-first.[Standard Sherwood Financial Partners compliance disclosure inserted here via Substack Template at production time — same wording as the text edition.] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

The Thread — Issue #3 | May 4, 2026 Why a shrinking IRS, an unreadable healthcare bill, a six-figure college decision, and a record-low consumer sentiment all point to the same realization: the complexity itself has become the cost. In this issue: The IRS is struggling. The enforcement workforce is on track to fall below 30,000 — roughly a third less than its peak just a few years ago. What that means for the $696 billion annual tax gap, voluntary compliance, and the people who play by the rules. Healthcare's coverage-versus-care gap. Two-thirds of Americans now say healthcare is their top financial worry. ACA marketplace premiums roughly doubled when enhanced subsidies expired. The system has become so layered that having insurance and being able to afford care are increasingly two different things. The $70,000 college bet. Saint Michael's College in Vermont charges $70,000 a year and just had a tenured biology professor teaching students to cut back invasive shrubs because the maintenance staff was laid off. An estimated 442 American colleges may be in financial trouble. What families are actually being asked to evaluate. The mood underneath all of this. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index hit 49.8 in April — the lowest reading in the survey's history, dating back to 1952. Why traditional models can't explain it, and what's actually going on. Sources referenced in this episode: On the IRS: Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/irs-staffing-tax-enforcement-1a18e33f Pew Charitable Trusts — https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2026/04/07/despite-billions-at-stake-few-states-study-tax-gaps Government Accountability Office (via GovExec) — https://www.govexec.com/oversight/2026/03/watchdog-warns-challenges-irs-handles-first-tax-season-after-trump-staffing-cuts/412158/ PBS NewsHour — https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/irs-faces-challenges-in-2026-tax-season-due-to-jobs-cuts-and-new-laws Federal News Network (Nina Olson analysis) — https://federalnewsnetwork.com/management/2026/04/less-people-and-better-results-irs-ceo-says-filing-season-goals-met-after-27-staffing-cut/ On healthcare: KFF — https://www.kff.org/health-costs/americans-challenges-with-health-care-costs/ Gallup — https://news.gallup.com/poll/702596/one-third-americans-cut-back-cover-healthcare-expenses.aspx NPR — https://www.npr.org/2026/03/21/nx-s1-5735666/expensive-health-insurance-costs-affordability On college: Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/college-tuition-loans-budget-cuts-7d0ea05f NPR — https://n.pr/428Fp1P On consumer sentiment: Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-24/us-consumer-sentiment-falls-to-record-low-on-inflation-anxiety Bureau of Economic Analysis — https://www.bea.gov/ Axios — https://www.axios.com/2026/04/12/inflation-economy-decade-iran-oil Read the full text version with inline citations at MatthewGDavis.Substack.com. The full compliance disclosure for this episode is available with the text of this post at MatthewGDavis.Substack.com. This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

Here's a show notes block you can paste into the Substack audio post body — Substack syndicates it out to the podcast apps, so this is what listeners will see in Apple/Spotify/Overcast descriptions too.The Line Nobody Moved — A Special Report from The ThreadWhy a 1963 formula is still defining who's struggling in America — and what happens when you do the math honestly.In 1963, an economist named Mollie Orshansky built America's poverty line by taking the cost of a minimally adequate grocery plan and multiplying it by three. Sixty years later, the formula is still in use — adjusted only for inflation — even though food's share of household spending has collapsed from one-third to roughly one-twentieth. In this special report, I pull at that thread: what happens when you honestly apply Orshansky's own method to today's numbers? The answer reframed how I think about the words poverty and enough.In this episode:How the poverty line was invented, and why Orshansky designed it as a crisis floor rather than a comfort lineWhere household spending actually goes in 2024 — food at 12.9%, housing at 33.4%, transportation at 17% — per the BLS Consumer Expenditure SurveyThe recalculated threshold: why applying Orshansky's own logic to today's spending patterns produces a crisis floor somewhere between $80,000 and $140,000 for a family of fourThe gap between the official poverty rate (10.6%) and the majority of American households who would fall below an honestly-updated lineWhat this framework changes about financial planning — emergency funds, the two-income question, and why feeling stretched at six figures isn't a personal failureThe Data Behind This Episode:Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey 2024USDA Economic Research Service, Food Expenditure SeriesSocial Security Administration, Mollie Orshansky and the history of the poverty lineASPE, History of the Poverty ThresholdsU.S. Census Bureau, Income in the United States: 2024U.S. Census Bureau, Supplemental Poverty MeasureBrookings Institution, Why the United States Needs an Improved Measure of PovertyChild Care Aware of America, 2024 Price & Supply ReportNational Education Association, 2025 Educator Pay ReportFederal Reserve, Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2024Inspired by an analysis from Michael W. Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, who connected these datasets in a markets context. The primary government data, the framework, and the financial planning implications are my own.Read the full written version of this special report at matthewgdavis.substack.com.The Thread is a biweekly newsletter written by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. If this piece made you think, forward it to someone who might appreciate a calmer way to stay informed. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

Why the oil shock, the shipping cost spike, and a $16,000 EV all point to the same thing: what's coming hasn't arrived yet.In this first issue of The Thread, I pull at the connections running underneath a few stories clients have been asking about — and find that the economic consequences of the Iran conflict haven't fully arrived yet. They're on the water, literally. Understanding the timeline matters more than reacting to today's headlines.In this issue:The oil shock that hasn't even started yet — why the real shortage is still building behind the tankers already in transit, and what it means for the Fed's pathWhy it costs so much to move things — the collapse of American shipbuilding, and the policy paradox around trying to rebuild itThe $16,000 electric car you can't buy — Canada's deal with China and the affordability question underneathWhen judges are afraid to judge — why an independent judiciary matters for market certaintyThe common thread: There's a gap between what we see on the surface and what's building underneath.Sources referenced in this episode:Dated Brent oil price hits highest level since 2008 — CNBCMarch 2026 supply disruption analysis — Dallas Federal ReserveEconomic impact of the 2026 Iran war — WikipediaMarch FOMC rate decision — Federal ReserveCollapse of U.S. shipbuilding — 60 Minutes / CBS NewsClarksea Index hits record — Splash 247Canada's Chinese EV deal, explained — CBCChinese EVs in Canada: pricingThreats against federal judges — 60 Minutes / CBS NewsRead the full written version of this issue →The Thread is a biweekly publication following the connections between the stories that shape your financial life. Written by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners.If you find this useful, forward it to someone who might appreciate a calmer way to stay informed. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

Why $7 Doritos, a broken jobs formula, and a suspicious oil trade all point to the same realization: the old rules don't apply anymore.In this issue:What I'm Pulling At (1:00) Why so many of the conversations I'm having with clients right now come back to the same feeling — that the ground shifted, and nobody told them.The $7 Bag of Doritos (2:45) How PepsiCo lost $50 billion in market value by raising prices too far, too fast — and what "demand destruction" tells us about the broader affordability question.Why Bad Jobs Reports Might Not Mean What You Think (6:30) The U.S. labor force has effectively stopped growing. Why that changes the math on every monthly jobs print going forward, and what it means for long-term GDP.Martha Stewart Went to Prison for This (10:00) A $500 million oil futures trade placed 15 minutes before a presidential announcement — and the bipartisan push to do something about it.The Common Thread (13:00) Every story this issue comes back to the same realization. Seeing that is the first step.Sources cited in this episode:Bloomberg on PepsiCo's demand destruction: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-04-07/pepsico-cuts-chip-prices-after-7-doritos-hurt-frito-lay-salesBrookings on 2025-2026 migration and the U.S. labor force: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/macroeconomic-implications-of-immigration-flows-in-2025-and-2026-january-2026-update/Federal Reserve staff note on labor force growth and breakeven employment: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/labor-force-growth-breakeven-employment-and-potential-gdp-growth-20260402.htmlPBS News Hour on prediction markets and presidential pardons: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/prediction-markets-pardons-spark-questions-over-whos-profiting-from-trumps-presidencyCBS News on the pre-announcement oil futures trade: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/insider-trading-oil-futures-trump-iran-post/CNBC on Defense Secretary trading allegations: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/pete-hegseth-defence-investments-iran-war-pentagon.htmlPew Research Center on public trust in government, 1958-2025: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/12/04/public-trust-in-government-1958-2025/Read the written version: https://matthewgdavis.substack.comAbout The Thread: A biweekly briefing from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. Following the connections between the stories that shape your financial life.Get in touch: Reply to the email edition, or visit matthewgdavis.substack.com.This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com