EPISODE · Mar 4, 2026 · 48 MIN
The surprising truth behind collapsing birthrates | Tyler Cowen on 2050
from Forecast 2050 · host Nebular
Tyler Cowen believes we are woefully unprepared for the next 25 years. In the first episode of Forecast 2050 with Nebular General Partner, Finn Murphy, we discuss the real reason behind falling birthrates, what the last human job might be in an AI-dominated economy, how conflict and war could evolve in the next 25 years, whether we will have a "viagra for the mind," why we are experiencing the fastest technological revolution in human history, why humans love stasis and hate change, and why we need faith in long-term thinking.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/humans-love-stasis-and-hate-changeTranscript (with helpful links!): https://substack.com/home/post/p-189726563Chapters:00:00 Intro01:03 The real reason behind low birthrates04:50 Transitioning to a majority-old society07:49 The future of worldwide immigration14:55 The 2050 economy will be healthcare dominated19:23 Corporations have never been so powerful26:25 There is life on the moons of Saturn27:07 Elon is wrong: We won't settle other planets30:00 AIs Will Take Over Society By Trick30:58 We need faith for long term thinking32:47 There will be many, many fake jobs36:29 The future of the UN and global conflicts40:56 The AIs will build their own superintelligent institutions45:18 Tyler's greatest concern47:50 The last profession standing in the AI eraTyler Cowen is an economist, author, and professor known for his work on growth, innovation, and the future of technology. Tyler on X: https://x.com/tylercowenTyler's Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is an early stage venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.
What this episode covers
Tyler Cowen believes we are woefully unprepared for the next 25 years. In the first episode of Forecast 2050 with Nebular General Partner, Finn Murphy, we discuss the real reason behind falling birthrates, what the last human job might be in an AI-dominated economy, how conflict and war could evolve in the next 25 years, whether we will have a "viagra for the mind," why we are experiencing the fastest technological revolution in human history, why humans love stasis and hate change, and why we need faith in long-term thinking.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/humans-love-stasis-and-hate-changeTranscript (with helpful links!): https://substack.com/home/post/p-189726563Chapters:00:00 Intro01:03 The real reason behind low birthrates04:50 Transitioning to a majority-old society07:49 The future of worldwide immigration14:55 The 2050 economy will be healthcare dominated19:23 Corporations have never been so powerful26:25 There is life on the moons of Saturn27:07 Elon is wrong: We won't settle other planets30:00 AIs Will Take Over Society By Trick30:58 We need faith for long term thinking32:47 There will be many, many fake jobs36:29 The future of the UN and global conflicts40:56 The AIs will build their own superintelligent institutions45:18 Tyler's greatest concern47:50 The last profession standing in the AI eraTyler Cowen is an economist, author, and professor known for his work on growth, innovation, and the future of technology. Tyler on X: https://x.com/tylercowenTyler's Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is an early stage venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.
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The surprising truth behind collapsing birthrates | Tyler Cowen on 2050
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