Forecast 2050

Enveda Founder and CEO Viswa Colluru believes we have been looking for new medicines in the wrong places for decades.In the Season 1 finale of Forecast 2050, I sat down with Viswa and Pablo Lubroth, VP of Special Projects at Enveda, to discuss why 9 in 10 drugs fail in clinical trials despite Big Pharma spending $276 billion in annual R&D, how AI is finally unlocking 99% of nature's chemistry that we've haven't been able to read, why the incentive structure of biotech capital markets is actively bad for patients, why insisting on understanding how a drug works actually slows down drug discovery, why aging may not be inevitable, and why mental health is going to be the defining medical crisis of the next 25 years.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/3dc95f79-4a7e-4c80-9630-970c1e6e2117Transcript (with helpful links!): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/beb7222d-efd1-472b-85be-09d7a7faf1a5Chapters:00:00 Intro01:09 The Quintessential Problem With Drug Discovery04:57 Pablo’s Journey to Enveda06:29 Insisting on Understanding Biological Mechanisms Slows Down Drug Discovery09:39 Science Has Been Divorced From Human Experience12:22 Scientific Reductionism Has Not Led to Better Drugs19:31 Lessons Learned From Big Pharma Missing Out On GLP-1s22:11 Capital Markets Disinventivize Risk-Taking and Harm Patients28:12 How to Prioritize Which Illnesses to Cure33:38 Prediction and Prevention is a Better Strategy Than Treatment38:27 Drugs to Make Us Limitless Like Bradley Cooper42:53 Aging is Not Inevitable43:34 Everyone Has a Chinese Peptide Guy50:13 The Loon Shots for 205052:39 Mental Health Will be The Biggest Challenge for 205054:46 The AI Revolution in MedicineViswa Colluru is the Founder & CEO of Enveda, a clinical-stage biotech company using AI to discover new drugs from nature. He built Enveda from $55K of personal savings into a unicorn with over $500M raised and multiple assets in clinical trials. Before founding Enveda, Viswa was the first Innovation Scientist and Product Manager at Recursion Pharmaceuticals. He holds a PhD in immuno-oncology from UW-Madison.Pablo Lubroth is a VP of Special Projects at Enveda and the Co-Founder & Editor of Decoding Bio. He previously built and led the biotech practice at Hummingbird Ventures and co-hosts the annual AI x Bio Summit at the NYSE. Pablo holds degrees in Neuropharmacology and Biochemical Engineering from UCL and an MPhil in Bioscience Enterprise from the University of Cambridge.Viswa on X: https://x.com/viswacolluruPablo on X: https://x.com/pablolubrothEnveda: https://enveda.comDecoding Bio: https://www.decodingbio.comForecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Devon Zuegel believes America has been building cities wrong for decades. She grew up spending summers in Chautauqua, an intellectual community in western New York where four generations of her family shared a household and she knew her neighbors better than the ones at home in California. Now she's building a village called Esmeralda 90 minutes north of San Francisco to prove that formula can be replicated.I sat down with Devon in San Francisco to talk about harnessing urban planning as a powerful technological force for good, age-segregation in America and the impending population crisis, and why we need more incredible cities popping up across the country over the next 25 years.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/8bcb1293-d2f5-4c6c-a133-8a6d0826b839Transcript (with helpful links!): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/forecast-2050-episode-7-devon-zuegel?r=25ihqz&triedRedirect=trueChapters:00:00 Intro01:07 Chautauqua Inspires Esmeralda03:02 Cities Are A Technology06:33 The Autonomous Vehicle Takeover10:02 The New Multigenerational Society13:29 American Colleges Make the Economy Dynamic, but Break Up Families17:39 Remote Work and the Expansion of the Metropolis19:55 A Real Alternative to the Suburb/City Dilemma22:21 Real Life Is The Classroom26:04 Esmeralda’s Open Door Policy27:59 Making Cities Worth Living In32:51 The NIMBY Problem35:10 The Digital-Physical Divergence38:29 The Cities That Have Gotten It Right BeforeDevon Zuegel is the founder and president of the Esmeralda Institute, where she is building Esmeralda, a village of the future just 90 minutes north of San Francisco envisioned as a Chautauqua for Silicon Valley.Devon on X: https://x.com/devonzuegelDevon’s Personal Site: https://devonzuegel.com/Esmeralda Institute: https://esmeralda.org/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info. 

Matt Clifford and Ian Hogarth believe Europe is roughly a decade behind the United States in building the technology companies that will define the next era. But they also believe that the gap can be closed, and that the UK and Europe could even leapfrog America, if political leaders and the public make fundamentally different choices. I sat down with Matt, co-founder of Entrepreneurs First and architect of the UK Government's AI strategy, and Ian, co-founder of Plural and Chair of the UK's AI Foundation Model Taskforce, to talk about what Europe needs to do to save itself from stagnation. We get into why Europe's risk aversion is a bigger threat than American superiority, why career politicians won't survive in the new multipolar world, and why the pro-growth movement is losing the culture war — and how to win it back. Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/2dc713af-826a-43dc-a2ad-91ad00ee6134Transcript (with helpful links!): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/00092f0e-3f30-473f-a773-d560724b3dc5Chapters:00:00 Intro01:01 The Compounding Effect: Why the US Is Winning03:50 Jumpstarting European Growth06:48 We Must Risk Failure to Succeed09:30 Crisis as Catalyst12:21 The Multipolar Moment14:31 AI Nationalism18:41 Career Politicians Won’t Survive the New Global Order21:32 The Apollo Moonshot for the UK25:26 The UK Has a De-Growth Cultural Problem28:32 Growth ≠ Good33:55 Prediction Markets as Gambling Companies36:23 Political Leaders Should Not Be Neutral About the Good Life37:41 UK and Europe: Geography as Destiny39:33 The Next Pendulum Swings for EuropeMatt Clifford is the co-founder and Chair of Entrepreneurs First, the world's leading talent investor, and Chair of ARIA, the UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency. He authored the UK Government's AI Opportunities Action Plan and served as the Prime Minister's Adviser on AI. He was named to the TIME100 list of most influential people in AI and was awarded a CBE for services to AI in 2024.Ian Hogarth is co-founder and partner at Plural, an early-stage venture capital firm, and served as Chair of the UK Government's AI Foundation Model Taskforce. He co-founded Songkick and was named to the TIME100 list of most influential people in AI in 2023.Matt on X: https://x.com/matthewcliffordIan on X: https://x.com/soundboyMatt's Website: https://www.matthewclifford.com/Ian's Website: https://www.ianhogarth.com/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Yanai Yedvab thinks we need to completely overhaul the infrastructure of humanity to avoid a climate disaster, and we can't afford to wait the 70 years it’ll take to wean off fossil fuels. Before founding Stardust, Yanai spent nearly three decades in Israeli nuclear research, ending up as deputy chief scientist at the Israel Atomic Energy Commission. Stardust is developing reflective particles to disperse into the upper atmosphere that will buy us the several decades we need to transition into a low-carbon economy. We sat down in New York to talk about how the technology works, the dangers at stake if we do nothing, and Yanai's radical optimism in spite of everything. Stardust Publication on Safety: https://www.stardustsolutions.com/scienceStardust Publication on Ethics: https://www.stardustsolutions.com/guiding-principlesExtended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/191c8d8c-50a1-42d4-a44e-03e618b9d359Transcript (with helpful links!): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/c04e6ebb-d1e8-4cbf-97d3-fee104f21536Chapters:00:00 Intro01:10 From Nuclear Physics to The Climate Crisis04:01 The Failure of Climate Activism05:28 How Solar Reflective Technology Works09:12 The 1991 Eruption of Mount Pinatubo12:01 The Montreal Protocol and How to Negotiate in a World at War16:03 Buying Time: Weaning off Fossil Fuels Will Take 50-70 Years18:55 Data Centers, Fission, and Fusion19:59 Preparing for Emergencies the Israeli Way23:40 Radical Transparency: The Only Way To Gain Trust27:05 Persuading the Policymakers33:05 Unlimited Ambition is What Will Save the World35:10 Stardust Will Unlock Quantum Leaps in Weather Prediction36:54 Stardust in 205040:20 Why Stardust Has to Be a Private Company45:32 Optimism for the Future is RationalYanai Yedvab is a nuclear physicist, former deputy chief scientist at the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, and the co-founder and CEO of Stardust, a solar geoengineering company.Stardust: https://www.stardustsolutions.com/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Casey Handmer thinks we're living through the most consequential 25 years in human history, and that human civilization is just getting started. I sat down with Casey in Los Angeles to discuss how China's dominance in solar energy deployment should be a wake-up call for the West, why antimatter is the only rocket fuel that makes interstellar travel possible, and how slowing down aging may be the best solution to plummeting birthrates across the planet. For Casey, the balrog in the deep isn’t demographic decline, but a climate catastrophe that swallows every coastline on Earth.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/6c52cb7a-572b-4f5f-8bf9-70fdaf14cf98Transcript (with helpful links!): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/17c9604e-f38b-41a3-9068-eaf69d9f5575Chapters:00:00 Intro00:53 The Solar Revolution03:43 AI is a Supersonic Tsunami06:00 Civilization Is Just Getting Started08:46 Intelligent Life in the Universe12:03 The $40 Trillion Ticket to Space: Antimatter20:57 Space Exploration by 205022:09 Mitigating The Climate Catastrophe27:53 Terraforming Mars vs Terraforming Venus35:00 Solving the Birthrate Crisis: Humans Will Become Like The Elves in LOTR and Live Indefinitely42:07 China Is Losing Sleep Over Their Problems As Much as We Are44:46 Governments Are Lying About Their Population Sizes46:11 The 2050 Moonshots That Will Save The World52:45 Easter Egg :)Casey Handmer is a physicist, entrepreneur, and the founder of Terraform Industries, working on making cheap natural gas from sunlight and air.Casey on X: https://x.com/CJHandmerCasey's Website: https://www.caseyhandmer.com/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Starcloud Founder and CEO Philip Johnston believes data centers in space are the first step to becoming a Kardashev level civilization. I caught up with Philip at Starcloud’s HQ to talk about his vision for the next 25 years. The conversation covers everything from luxury space tourism, whether Tesla’s Optimus robot will become a self-replicating galactic probe, the hard problem of consciousness, whether the world is a simulation, Mars becoming the next America, and Philip’s greatest concern for our long-term future.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/data-centers-in-space-moon-resortsTranscript: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/forecast-2050-episode-iv-transcriptChapters:00:00 Intro00:59 Why the Space GPU Skeptics are Wrong03:12 Elon Will Bring Launch Costs Down with Starship06:50 The 2050 Space Economy: Moon Hotels, Asteroid Mining and Manufacturing16:37 The 2050 Martian Colony: A Stepping Stone for Exploring the Universe26:32 The Kardashev Scale of Civilization28:44 We Live in a Simulation: The Fermi Paradox & The Great Filter34:52 Cracking the Hard Problem of Consciousness37:46 There is a Calamitous Event Waiting for Us39:04 Mars is the Next AmericaPhilip Johnston is the co-founder and CEO of Starcloud, a space technology company building orbital data centers powered by solar energy to run AI and compute infrastructure in space.Philip on X: https://x.com/PhilipJohnstonPhilip on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philip-johnston/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind served as Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom from 1995 to 1997 and as Defence Secretary before that. He has sat across from Soviet ministers while a KGB double agent secretly briefed both sides, watched the Berlin Wall fall when nobody saw it coming, and has been banished from Russia by Putin personally for his criticism of the invasion of Crimea. I sat down with Sir Malcolm in London this January to talk about the next 25 years of conflict and diplomacy, and how to navigate a world where nobody cares about the old rules anymore.Extended Show Notes: https://substack.com/home/post/p-192033568Transcript: https://substack.com/home/post/p-192033862Chapters:00:00 Intro01:05 Why Politicians Can’t Predict the Future03:37 The Power of Double Agents in Spycraft04:38 Social Media Diplomacy Was Inevitable12:46 Soft Power is Dead 16:25 The Cult of Youth in Global Leadership18:54 The West Must Think Long-Term to Survive27:43 Technological Innovation Will Hurt Old People 30:58 The Chinese Will Eat Their Rich38:11 Meeting Gorbachev and His Philosopher Wife44:32 There Are No Good Guys and Bad Guys46:46 Ukraine will Freeze Up like Korea, Kashmir, and Cyprus47:55 Taiwan is More Important than Iran53:23 How Smaller Countries Operate without Pax Americana55:09 “The Chinese and the Russians Cannot Believe Their Luck” - on NATO Collapse59:59 America May Not Be the Main Character in the FutureSir Malcolm Rifkind is a British statesman who served as Defence Secretary and then Foreign Secretary under Prime Ministers Margaret Thatcher and John Major, and later chaired the UK Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee.Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Noor Siddiqui is building a future free of inherited disease. As Founder & CEO of Orchid, she has developed embryo screening technology that reads 99% of an embryo's DNA - 100 times more information than legacy tools. In this episode of Forecast 2050, Nebular General Partner Finn Murphy sits down with Noor in San Francisco to discuss why embryo screening and artificial wombs may become the default way humans reproduce, what's really driving falling birth rates, the moonshot nobody is funding, and why a generation of young people with world-changing energy has been left with nowhere to put it.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/sex-is-for-fun-orchid-ivf-is-forTranscript (with links): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/forecast-2050-transcript-episodeChapters:00:00 Intro00:50 Rolling the Dice No More: The Embryo Screening Revolution05:27 Artificial Wombs Are the Tech Challenge of Our Time07:47 Why Aren't We Having Kids?17:03 The Broken Generational Contract 18:56 Nature Beats Out Nurture21:45 AI & Genetic Technology Could Give Us Superhuman Powers30:54 Noor’s Plan for 205037:10 What We Lose When Old People Run EverythingNoor Siddiqui is the Founder & CEO of Orchid, the world's first whole genome embryo screening company. Noor on X: https://x.com/noor_siddiqui_Orchid: https://www.orchidhealth.com/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City investing in early-stage companies.Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Scott Aaronson thinks that the time to prepare for a post-quantum world isn’t years away - it was yesterday. In the second episode of Forecast 2050 with Nebular General Partner Finn Murphy and Entrepreneur in Residence Tom McCarthy, we explore whether classical AI might eclipse quantum computing, how post-quantum cryptography will upend global security, and why the rise of superintelligence both excites and deeply unsettles Scott.We also debate whether a quantum teleporter would actually be a suicide machine, how advanced AI might help us uncover the fundamental nature of reality, and the disturbing possibility that future superintelligences may compete with one another for dominance, treating humans as collateral. Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/breaking-the-internet-scott-aaronsonsTranscript (with links): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/forecast-2050-episode-ii-transcriptChapters00:00 Intro02:04 How AI & Quantum Computing Interact Today10:36 Why Scott Thinks Classical Computing Might Outdate Quantum18:24 The Post-Quantum World of 205027:43 Quantum Computing & Biology35:46 The Quantum Teleporter as a Suicide Machine38:52 Superintelligence & The Ultimate Nature of Reality45:00 The Battle Between SuperintelligencesScott Aaronson, the Schlumberger Centennial Chair of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin, is widely recognized as a top researcher in the fields of quantum computing and computational complexity.Thank you to Matt Johnson of Q2B Sillicon Valley and QC Ware for helping us film at the conference! https://q2b.qcware.com/ Scott’s blog, Shtetl-Optimized: https://scottaaronson.blog/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Tom on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-mccarthy-41144779/Nebular is an early-stage venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Tyler Cowen believes we are woefully unprepared for the next 25 years. In the first episode of Forecast 2050 with Nebular General Partner, Finn Murphy, we discuss the real reason behind falling birthrates, what the last human job might be in an AI-dominated economy, how conflict and war could evolve in the next 25 years, whether we will have a "viagra for the mind," why we are experiencing the fastest technological revolution in human history, why humans love stasis and hate change, and why we need faith in long-term thinking.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/humans-love-stasis-and-hate-changeTranscript (with helpful links!): https://substack.com/home/post/p-189726563Chapters:00:00 Intro01:03 The real reason behind low birthrates04:50 Transitioning to a majority-old society07:49 The future of worldwide immigration14:55 The 2050 economy will be healthcare dominated19:23 Corporations have never been so powerful26:25 There is life on the moons of Saturn27:07 Elon is wrong: We won't settle other planets30:00 AIs Will Take Over Society By Trick30:58 We need faith for long term thinking32:47 There will be many, many fake jobs36:29 The future of the UN and global conflicts40:56 The AIs will build their own superintelligent institutions45:18 Tyler's greatest concern47:50 The last profession standing in the AI eraTyler Cowen is an economist, author, and professor known for his work on growth, innovation, and the future of technology. Tyler on X: https://x.com/tylercowenTyler's Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is an early stage venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years, and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what lies ahead. Hosted by Nebular General Partner Finn Murphy.