What's Coming Hasn't Arrived Yet

Why the oil shock, the shipping cost spike, and a $16,000 EV all point to the same thing: what's coming hasn't arrived yet.In this first issue of The Thread, I pull at the connections running underneath a few stories clients have been asking about — and find that the economic consequences of the Iran conflict haven't fully arrived yet. They're on the water, literally. Understanding the timeline matters more than reacting to today's headlines.In this issue:The oil shock that hasn't even started yet — why the real shortage is still building behind the tankers already in transit, and what it means for the Fed's pathWhy it costs so much to move things — the collapse of American shipbuilding, and the policy paradox around trying to rebuild itThe $16,000 electric car you can't buy — Canada's deal with China and the affordability question underneathWhen judges are afraid to judge — why an independent judiciary matters for market certaintyThe common thread: There's a gap between what we see on the surface and what's building underneath.Sources referenced in this episode:Dated Brent oil price hits highest level since 2008 — CNBCMarch 2026 supply disruption analysis — Dallas Federal ReserveEconomic impact of the 2026 Iran war — WikipediaMarch FOMC rate decision — Federal ReserveCollapse of U.S. shipbuilding — 60 Minutes / CBS NewsClarksea Index hits record — Splash 247Canada's Chinese EV deal, explained — CBCChinese EVs in Canada: pricingThreats against federal judges — 60 Minutes / CBS NewsRead the full written version of this issue →The Thread is a biweekly publication following the connections between the stories that shape your financial life. Written by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners.If you find this useful, forward it to someone who might appreciate a calmer way to stay informed. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com