The Old Rules Don't Apply Anymore

Why $7 Doritos, a broken jobs formula, and a suspicious oil trade all point to the same realization: the old rules don't apply anymore.In this issue:What I'm Pulling At (1:00) Why so many of the conversations I'm having with clients right now come back to the same feeling — that the ground shifted, and nobody told them.The $7 Bag of Doritos (2:45) How PepsiCo lost $50 billion in market value by raising prices too far, too fast — and what "demand destruction" tells us about the broader affordability question.Why Bad Jobs Reports Might Not Mean What You Think (6:30) The U.S. labor force has effectively stopped growing. Why that changes the math on every monthly jobs print going forward, and what it means for long-term GDP.Martha Stewart Went to Prison for This (10:00) A $500 million oil futures trade placed 15 minutes before a presidential announcement — and the bipartisan push to do something about it.The Common Thread (13:00) Every story this issue comes back to the same realization. Seeing that is the first step.Sources cited in this episode:Bloomberg on PepsiCo's demand destruction: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-04-07/pepsico-cuts-chip-prices-after-7-doritos-hurt-frito-lay-salesBrookings on 2025-2026 migration and the U.S. labor force: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/macroeconomic-implications-of-immigration-flows-in-2025-and-2026-january-2026-update/Federal Reserve staff note on labor force growth and breakeven employment: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/labor-force-growth-breakeven-employment-and-potential-gdp-growth-20260402.htmlPBS News Hour on prediction markets and presidential pardons: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/prediction-markets-pardons-spark-questions-over-whos-profiting-from-trumps-presidencyCBS News on the pre-announcement oil futures trade: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/insider-trading-oil-futures-trump-iran-post/CNBC on Defense Secretary trading allegations: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/pete-hegseth-defence-investments-iran-war-pentagon.htmlPew Research Center on public trust in government, 1958-2025: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/12/04/public-trust-in-government-1958-2025/Read the written version: https://matthewgdavis.substack.comAbout The Thread: A biweekly briefing from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. Following the connections between the stories that shape your financial life.Get in touch: Reply to the email edition, or visit matthewgdavis.substack.com.This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com