The Times They Are A-Changin’

As Australians head toward a federal election, former Senate president and High Commissioner to Canada Scott Ryan offers a measured but clear-eyed assessment: the old certainties in Australian politics are breaking down — and the international order that once underpinned them may not return.In a wide-ranging interview, Ryan provided a granular, state-by-state breakdown of the electoral battleground. He sees Victoria as central to any hope the Coalition has of forming government — a state where the Labor government is deeply unpopular, but the Liberal Party remains at historic lows.New South Wales is just as complex. In outer-metropolitan seats and areas with significant Muslim populations, new dynamics are at play — including the rise of faith-aligned independent candidates whose preference flows could prove decisive. Ryan notes that the two-party preferred metric is becoming less useful in an election increasingly shaped by minor parties and independents.Queensland, once the Coalition’s power base, is now home to rising Greens strength in inner-Brisbane, volatile regional contests, and a landscape that looks more fractured than ever. He sees Tasmania, South Australia, and the Northern Territory as largely status quo contests, while warning that even a small national swing could push Labor into minority — though a Coalition majority would require a historically large shift.Ryan believes we are entering a long era of fragile governments. Major party loyalty is declining, electoral volatility is rising, and preference flows — especially from the Greens to Labor — are becoming kingmakers.“Winning primary votes is no longer enough,” he says.He ties this fracturing at home to a wider story abroad. Ryan reflects on his early political awakening during Victoria’s early-1990s recession, where his father’s job loss taught him how policy decisions shape real lives. That experience led him to embrace the potential of reform — and he credits Australia’s success in liberalising its economy during the 1980s and ’90s without widespread social breakdown to a balance of free-market reform and social equity mechanisms like HECS and Medicare.Ryan then shifts focus to the broader collapse of the postwar order, especially in light of Donald Trump’s re-election campaign. In Canada, where he served as High Commissioner, Trump’s return has completely overturned a 20-point Conservative lead and resurrected the Liberal Party, thanks to tariff threats and a new sense of vulnerability in U.S.-Canada relations.He warns that Trump’s economic nationalism has direct implications for Australia, with our major trading partners all subject to high U.S. tariffs (although, of course, this changes by the day). More broadly, Ryan sees the unravelling of the rules-based order as a turning point: if America can no longer be counted on, Asia’s middle powers — including Australia — may be forced to look elsewhere. And China, he notes, is already filling the vacuum.Still, he ends on a note of cautious national pride: Australia, he says, has absorbed mass migration, resolved sectarian divides, and built a strong, flexible political culture.But the test of that resilience — at home and abroad — may be just beginning. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.powerlines.au