The year ahead - Caught in currents

For our final podcast of the year, we’ll review 2024 highlights and look ahead to 2025 using SBM’s The Year Ahead Report.Regarding the economy, we think that oil prices in 2025 will stay steady at $65-$75 per barrel. Nigeria’s oil production may fall short of its 2 million barrels/day target, hitting 1.8 million instead. We expect GDP to grow by 3.5%, but inflation could remain high at 28%. Tax reforms and improved earnings from oil and taxes might stabilise finances, but the Naira could weaken further.  Will reforms drive growth, or will inflation remain a key challenge?In Politics, we believe that a new northern opposition group may challenge the Tinubu administration. A cabinet reshuffle might see Nyesom Wike lose his role, while we expect Chukwuma Soludo to win a second term in Anambra. How will these political shifts shape 2025?Threats from Al Qaeda-linked groups may rise in Nigeria's Northwest, while IPOB violence in the Southeast could reduce slightly. We expect youth gang activity to increase around the country. Can Nigeria improve security?Across Africa, Ghana will face tax and energy issues even as inflation eases. Islamist violence could escalate in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin. What will rising violence and economic challenges mean for Africa’s stability?Support the show