They Don't Want the Smoke

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello! (01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap (02:15) - Trump War Quotes (02:54) - Menu Metaphor (04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity (07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet (09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic (12:35) - Iran Succession Shock (14:43) - Attack Data and B52s (16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz (20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters (24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk (27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario (30:37) - Trump and Market Downside (32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy (36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building (38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency (40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines (41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace (43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down (45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters (47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran (51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check (53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario (59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down (01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation (01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro