Geopolitical Cousins

AfD won 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, and the Twittersphere (x-sphere just doesn't hit, sorry) immediately projected Panzer divisions massing on the Polish border. Is AfD kinda scary right-wing populist? For sure. But every right-wing populist party in Europe has faced this same test over the last decade, and 17 out of 17 came to Jesus on the Euro once they had to actually govern. So is Germany becoming the Fourth Reich?? Unlikely. This is just what happens to a country where too much remains unsayable - about immigration, about Ukraine, about energy - and who fills that vacuum. Also: Greek shippers, making a killing. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Cold Open and Timing(00:29) - AfD Shock Headlines(02:16) - Europe Media Myths(05:12) - AfD Strategy and Taboos(09:29) - EU Integration Is Settled(12:21) - Not Nazis but Risks(14:18) - East Germany Roots(17:47) - Ukraine and Russia Realism(21:05) - Coalitions and Overton Window(23:58) - Migration and Integration Crunch(32:26) - Long Trend Not Flash(34:42) - East West Guilt Divide(36:53) - Guilt Politics Backfire(37:46) - Teaching History Without Dwelling(39:34) - Sons And Fathers Debate(41:07) - Statues And Memory Wars(42:12) - Germany Flags And Expert Skepticism(43:29) - Why Parliaments Tame Extremes(45:05) - Let AfD Govern Locally(45:47) - Houthis Strike And Oil Risks(48:35) - Greek Shippers Beat Blockades(53:01) - Supply Chains Adapt Over Time(55:25) - Corporate Strategy In Gray Zones(58:29) - Amoral Multipolar Lessons(01:01:47) - Houthi Sponsorship Joke Break(01:02:21) - Ballmer Kawhi And Uncle Dennis(01:03:46) - Clippers Insecurity And Hubris(01:09:43) - Jersey Retirements And Wrap Up--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Rabies-infested beavers. Not an insult - a fiscal strategy. Canadians have stopped buying bourbon, started flying maple leaf flags in grocery stores, and ~ most importantly ~ handed Mark Carney the political cover to build infrastructure needed since the OG Trudeau. This week: why "size of the fight in the dog" beats a trade balance sheet, why 5% tariff coverage is somehow triggering a national identity crisis, and why America might be the Uncle Dennis of North America - took free money, overstayed the welcome, and is now shocked nobody wants him at Thanksgiving.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Housekeeping(00:35) - Canada Episode Setup(01:05) - Trade War Rupture(02:25) - Why Tariffs Now(04:18) - States at Risk(05:38) - Carney Strikes Back(06:40) - Risk Tolerance Matters(08:29) - Canada Consumer Backlash(10:20) - Carney Fiscal Space Plan(12:20) - Infrastructure Reality Check(15:26) - Quebec and Unity Messaging(17:22) - Economic Pain and Polls(20:49) - What Exports Really Are(24:00) - China Veto Red Line(27:01) - Maple 8 Pension Power(29:12) - Canada Defense Mythbusting(37:41) - Is America the Threat(42:00) - Imperialism and History(44:03) - WWII Alliance Origins(44:42) - Peace Dividend Border(46:03) - Risk Logic Defense Costs(46:37) - Why Invasion Fails(51:56) - Trade War Won't Work(53:17) - Canada Already Concedes(57:38) - Defense As Bargaining(01:00:46) - Schoolyard Bully Moment(01:06:13) - Canada EU Option(01:10:44) - Peace Arch Warning(01:12:13) - US Politics Fallout(01:16:25) - Higher Price Later(01:19:54) - Sports Metaphor Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Scott Bessent says he doesn't understand why oil prices are spiking. The guy standing between America and the River Styx is confused :) The cousins crack open a few cold ones this week and break down why the 30-year just hit a 20-year high - not debt, not deficits, just vibes. Atrocious ones. The lads cover the war in Iran, tweets about North Korea, and a bond market that's done playing along. Plus... are hyperscalers minting money or building the next great overbuild? And what does the Lakers sale have to do with any of this? Everything, obviously. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Beer And Banter(01:02) - Treasury Buyback Shock(04:15) - Why Yields Matter(05:44) - Growth And Data Center Debt(09:34) - War In Iran And Bad Vibes(10:27) - Three Bond Selloffs Explained(18:16) - Debt Deficits And AI Debate(26:23) - China Models And AI Capex(43:06) - Dollar Multipolarity Risks(46:03) - Reserve Currency Reliability(47:40) - South Korea Tweet Fallout(48:48) - Pound vs Dollar Inertia(51:57) - Trump 1 vs Trump 2(54:04) - Iran War Limits Debate(59:14) - Multipolar Reality Sets In(01:01:56) - Backlash Against Data Centers(01:05:10) - Why AI Fear Spreads(01:11:26) - Populism and Tax Future(01:19:39) - Lakers Sale Conspiracies(01:22:34) - Private Equity in Sports(01:25:52) - Closing Banter and Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

It's been a minute. Marko and Jacob are back after a long gap, and not much has changed: the Hormuz standoff drags on, the war in Ukraine grinds forward, and the stock market shrugged it all off. Marko argues freedom of navigation was always empire's marketing slogan. Jacob pushes back on why Israel keeps mattering more than his own theory allows. The cousins disagree about Russia's next move, but what's new?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome Back Cousins!(00:53) - Same Old Geopolitics(01:43) - Hormuz Deal Rumors(02:26) - Markets Ignore War(03:34) - No Total War Thesis(08:12) - Kinetic Activity Debate(09:56) - Pipelines Undercut Iran(13:45) - AI Bubble vs Oil Risk(18:24) - Tolls and China Advantage(22:44) - Freedom of Navigation Rant(30:05) - Geography vs Technology(36:54) - Pivot to Russia Ukraine(39:07) - Wars Find Equilibrium(41:04) - Ukraine War Normalized(41:55) - Drones Hit Russia Home43:46) - NATO Targets Warning(45:08) - Black Sea Price Shock(46:57) - Iran US New Equilibrium(49:25) - Ukraine Breaks Stalemate(52:35) - Putin Leverage Options(55:48) - Spice Alliance Limits(58:22) - Why West Hates Iran(01:00:43) - Cold War Origins(01:03:44) - Israel Alliance Reframed(01:07:30) - Mandela Versus Arafat(01:13:49) - Netanyahu Pulls Trump(01:16:16) - Israel Utility Not Sympathy(01:20:19) - Israel Should Deal Iran(01:22:23) - Closing Thoughts--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so the crew litigates whether the winner's curse is dead, whether the GOAT variable was a methodological capitulation, and what Cape Verde, Norway, and Egypt say about the value of a center of gravity. Also on the docket: Trump's Balogun red-card intervention, the treatment of Iran's squad, a Paraguayan senator's meltdown, and why immigration keeps winning on the pitch.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show Updates/Intro(00:39) - World Cup Recap Setup(02:02) - Guests And Agenda(05:34) - How The Model Works(11:21) - Winners Curse Debate(15:39) - Messi GOAT Argument(21:10) - Spain And Substitutions(26:16) - Model Tweaks Next Time(30:57) - World Cup Negatives(39:34) - VAR And Tournament Fatigue(43:25) - Substitution Rules Debate(47:25) - Stadium Atmosphere Problems(49:53) - Anthems Halftime Politics(54:24) - What We Loved Most(57:19) - America Production Spectacle(01:01:12) - Drama Violence Ticket Culture(01:09:34) - Soccer Narratives Magic(01:12:23) - Geopolitics On The Pitch(01:17:49) - Immigration Nation State(01:21:31) - Wrap Up And Next Tournaments--Referenced in the Show:2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9 --Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran again. Yes, again :( nobody's thrilled, but that's the content. The cousins break down a week of tanker attacks, retaliations to retaliations, and a 20% toll that became "great investments" in 24 hours. Marko's pitch: stop forecasting oil prices and start using them - they're an input, not an output. Jacob pushes back on who actually wants what. Then Japan, where rising yields and a yen at 162 have the macro world whispering about the carry trade. Plus a super El Niño, and the World Cup - because apparently the whole planet is rooting for England now. Rare. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and agenda(00:36) - Iran flare-up timeline(03:28) - Why Iran escalates(06:59) - Oil prices drive conflict(20:24) - China signals and forecasts(23:18) - War 2.0 and Hormuz limits(28:46) - Rangebound Oil Equilibrium(30:33) - Hormuz Alternatives Rising(32:50) - Spiral Risk And CPI(36:18) - Trump Thesis And Forecasts(41:21) - World Cup Ref Drama(47:03) - Japan Yields And Global Spillovers--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran, Hormuz, another tanker on fire - sure, fine, but the real question is: what's actually driving the behavior here, and it's not the diplomacy everyone keeps quoting. Marko and Jacob argue it out: chokepoint tolls, the memorandum nobody trusts, oil prices doing more work than anyone wants to admit. Then Europe, because apparently that's still a thing - NATO's arms-deal theater, Le Pen's conviction, a French case nobody's making. And yes, the World Cup gets its forty minutes. It's a good one. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Episode Preview(01:00) - World Cup vs World News(02:03) - Hormuz Tanker Attacks(03:07) - Oil Prices Drive Reality(30:52) - Phony Russia Sanctions(32:46) - Europe Rearms and Le Pen(37:36) - Ukraine Stalemate and Crimea(47:33) - World Cup Trump and FIFA(01:02:20) - Birthright Soccer Paradox(01:03:12) - Why World Cup Matters(01:08:15) - American Grit on Pitch(01:10:18) - Announcers and Fan Culture(01:12:28) - Norway and Haaland Mythos(01:13:36) - Trump FIFA and Nationalism(01:16:30) - Sports as Peaceful Outlet(01:23:30) - Predictions and Final Picks(01:26:07) - Closing Love for World Cup--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

It's the Book Episode!!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle <3 The cousin picks span philosophy, fiction, psychology, and history. Machiavelli's The Prince opens the list, followed by texts on Marxism, biography, social psychology, and intelligence tradecraft. Marko favors frameworks that discipline thinking; Jshap leans on fiction and history to capture how humans behave. Tune in to hear more :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Reading Habit(01:06) - Heat Talk and Air Conditioning(03:34) - Book Draft Setup(04:54) - Machiavelli The Prince(16:20) - Talmud and Contrarian Thinking(23:14) - Marx Das Kapital(43:33) - Analyst Biases Primer(46:15) - Framework Over Rolodex(50:03) - Weber Versus Marx(53:53) - Power And Human Nature(01:02:47) - Realism And Institutions(01:12:48) - Haunting Endings And Paradigms--Referenced in the Show:The Prince — Niccolò Machiavelli (Marko Papic)The Talmud — Jewish corpus of rabbinic commentary, no single author (Jacob Shapiro)Das Kapital (Capital) — Karl Marx (Marko Papic)All the King's Men — Robert Penn Warren (Jacob Shapiro)The Person and the Situation — Lee Ross & Richard Nisbett (Marko Papic)Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — Richards J. Heuer Jr. (Jacob Shapiro)The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism — Max Weber (Marko Papic)Master of the Senate (The Years of Lyndon Johnson series) — Robert Caro (Jacob Shapiro)Lord of the Flies — William Golding (Marko Papic)Politics Among Nations — Hans Morgenthau (Jacob Shapiro)The Tragedy of Great Power Politics — John Mearsheimer (Marko Papic)The Search for Modern China — Jonathan Spence (Jacob Shapiro)Why Nations Fail — Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson (Marko Papic)A Bend in the River — V.S. Naipaul (Jacob Shapiro)The End: Hitler's Germany, 1944–45 — Ian Kershaw (Marko Papic)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions — Thomas Kuhn (Jacob Shapiro)--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defender's-advantage pattern across 1948 Israel, Vietnam, and Nagorno-Karabakh, arguing offense rarely wins against a population fighting for its home. The long-term call: Ukraine emerges as the next South Korea, corruption and all, while Putin's 2022 claim that "there is no Ukraine" ages into one of history's great own-goals. There's a new Ukraine being born, and Putin is a founding father :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show Updates Teasers(00:28) - Shaggy Marco Check In(01:42) - Reflecting Pool Absurdity(04:14) - World Cup Surprise Hit(08:59) - Buc ees America Vibes(13:45) - Freedom Why Not(17:45) - Private Beach Reality Check(18:48) - Zelensky Propaganda Blitz(20:47) - Crimea Air Defense Strain(23:25) - Putin Weakness Pivot Talk(29:24) - Russian Economy Under Hood(34:03) - Drones War Revolution(35:00) - Defense Industry Oligopoly(36:11) - Putin Mobilization Tells All(40:15) - Drones and Pain Tolerance(45:52) - Counter Drone Arms Race(46:48) - 1948 Israel and Supply Lines(55:25) - Why Conquest Usually Fails(59:21) - Esprit de Corps Matters(01:02:50) - Azerbaijan Drone Blueprint(01:04:00) - Ukraine Economic Miracle Bet(01:07:28) - Putin Own Goal Finale--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on the Knicks' title run and the World Cup.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome to Taos IRL(01:30) - House History and Taos Lore(02:25) - War Returns and Pivot Myth(03:15) - Anthropic vs US Crackdown(06:57) - AI as New Means of Production(10:44) - Kids Screens and Ideology(13:39) - Can States Control AI(16:35) - Dystopias State vs Corp(23:20) - Western Messiness vs Rule of Law(30:51) - Tech Barons and Backlash Politics(33:45) - Data Centers and Populist Response(35:37) - Bull Moose Antitrust Populism(37:10) - China Infrastructure Social Fabric(38:29) - Boom Bust Capex Cycles(41:23) - Universities Under Pressure(43:12) - How Campuses Handle AI(46:32) - Elitism Versus Access(50:19) - Iran Endgame Framework(51:27) - Hormuz Kinetic Equilibrium(56:34) - US Resolve And Deterrence(59:13) - Who Wins Middle East(01:07:54) - China As Stabilizer(01:09:59) - China Bonds And Stagnation(01:10:58) - No Rival No Resolve(01:12:40) - Oil Reserves And Populism(01:15:32) - China The Adult Debate(01:16:36) - Empire Model And Global South(01:21:11) -Will Power Corrupt China(01:23:36) - NBA Finals And Ticket Madness(01:27:09) - AI Makes Live Sports Pricier(01:29:53) - Basketball As Geopolitics(01:34:01) - World Cup Cohesion Forecast--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

World Cup Time!!!!!!! Robert Tipper and Juan Correa are our guests. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Secret Forecast Origins(01:23) - Meet The Authors(03:02) - Juan Football Roots(07:41) - Marco World Cup Memories(10:07) - Robert Germany Stories(14:47) - Jacob 2014 Awakening(19:06) - Why Soccer Is Hard(21:50) - Inside The Model(28:28) - What Doesnt Predict(30:22) - Group Stage Surprises(31:40) - Home Edge And Curse(35:16) - Why Champions Collapse(36:08) - Argentina Winner Curse(37:37) - Group F Chaos Picks(39:36) - Bracket Quarterfinals(41:30) - Portugal Dark Horse(43:30) - France Wins It All(45:42) - France Identity Debate(47:11) - Football And Immigration(50:22) - Geopolitical Matches(56:27) - USA 2010 Donovan Goal(01:01:01) - Can Soccer Unite America(01:03:37) - Building US Infrastructure(01:09:30) - Closing Thoughts Farewell--Referenced in the Show:2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9 --Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging(02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream(04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea(05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal(08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals(11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit(13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears(18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs(19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality(27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy(32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk(40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking(47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click(48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology(51:09) - YOLO Trading Era(53:57) - Savings Floor Risks(55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze(56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers(58:30) - Politics And The Fed(01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals(01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics(01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth(01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update(01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns(01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space(01:17:43) - World Cup Preview(01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard(01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions(01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate(01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's diminishing leverage window, and why the emerging deal is arguably a worse JCPOA. They pivot to Gen Z's eroding relationship with nationalism, Erdoğan's assault on Turkey's main opposition party, protests in Serbia AND OF COURSE close on the NBA playoffs.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:03) - Cousins Reunite!!(01:58) - Iran Ceasefire Strikes Update(05:20) - Deal Dynamics And Domestic Politics(09:07) - Military Posture And Hormuz Leverage(31:52) - Israel Spoiler And Regional Fallout(34:08) - Ebola Outbreak Background(37:13) - Why Ebola Gets Ignored(38:21) - Deglobalization And Pandemic Risk(41:23) - Vaccines Versus Political Will(43:40) - Marco Responds And MAGA Critique(48:17) - Global Health Reality Check(49:07) - Ebola Lessons and Limits(51:06) - Why US Must Engage(55:22) - Serbia Trip and Protests(57:43) - Gen Z Standards Revolution(01:03:30) - No Plan After Protest(01:06:54) - Censorship and Shared Culture(01:08:39) - Metaverse Versus Nationhood(01:20:33) - Turkey Opposition Crackdown(01:23:59) - AOC Mailbag and AI Politics(01:25:23) - NBA Takes Meet Geopolitics(01:30:00) - Victor Wembanyama Era--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3!Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping(01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered(03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs(05:37) - Ejecting Netanyahu TBD(06:09) - Cyprus Surprise Pick(08:37) - Finland NATO and Stubb(10:21) - Zelensky Case for Top Tier(20:34) - Pope Leo XIV Rising Influence(27:15) - Mitsotakis and Greece Comeback(32:53) - Modi and Sheinbaum Rankings(35:28) - Bukele Drops to Four(37:58) - Mark Carney Goes Number One(40:14) - Carney Goes Number One(40:50) - Steph Curry Comparison(41:46) - Bulking Up Canada(43:38) - Devils Advocate Pushback(45:21) - Trade Value Logic(46:54) - Full Rankings Recap(52:28) - Why Trump Missed Cut(57:41) - Biggest Movers Data(01:00:20) - Ideology Bias Breakdown(01:02:46) - Regional Bias Breakdown(01:05:32) - Starting Five Metaphors(01:06:46) - Xi and Jokic Deep Dive(01:13:34) - Wrap Up and Corrections--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

2026 Trade Values P2 :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:42) - Part Two Setup(02:31) - Lula at Fifteen(05:17) - Macron Debate(09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime(11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising(13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive(17:28) - Japan New Prime Pick(21:46) - Denmark and Greenland Standoff(24:03) - List Mixup and Denmark(25:17) - Xi Jinping Rising(26:53) - Xi Strengths and Risks(31:28) - Javier Milei Debate(34:08) - Rapid Fire Picks(37:42) - Top 10 Countdown(38:01) - Guatemala and Singapore(39:25) - Meloni and Sheinbaum(44:11) - Modi in Top Five(47:59) - Wrap and Next Part--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Trade Value Index is back!!!!!!! Part 1.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Housekeeping(00:47) - Why We Love Rankings(02:15) - Trade Value Rules Explained(06:59) - How We Score Leaders(08:29) - What Trade Value Means(11:03) - Last Year Rankings Recap(13:01) - Wins Misses and Dropoffs(19:43) - Starting the Countdown(20:00) - Jacob Cuts and Bottom Five(26:12) - Vietnam Surprise Pick(27:44) - Marco Honorable Mentions(30:58) - Dishonorable Mentions and Merz(32:34) - Merz Under Fire(33:41) - Hopeful Turnaround Talk(34:52) - Greenland Surprise Pick(36:23) - Nepal Gen Z Rookie(41:04) - Lula Back on Board(46:56) - Sri Lanka and Hungary Upside(49:44) - Meloni Slips Down(52:10) - Erdogan and Turkey’s Long Game(55:05) - Middle East and Africa Rankings(57:55) - Pakistan’s Geopolitical Comeback(01:00:53) - Syria’s New Strongman(01:02:35) - Sweden and Spain Reassessment(01:06:55) - Singapore’s Efficiency Model(01:08:58) - System Made Singapore(01:10:02) - Trade Value Debate(01:11:01) - Lee Jae Myung Profile(01:12:59) - Israel Tweet Controversy(01:16:55) - Prabowo Indonesia Wrap(01:19:49) - Iran Council Ranked(01:20:56) - Netanyahu Tradeoff Case(01:22:19) - Morocco Quiet Success(01:28:20) - Israel Umbilical Cord(01:37:34) - Gulf Royals Picks(01:40:34) - UAE Critique And Close--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente make. JShap thinks Trump can't carry the baton; Marko says he's the only one who can land the plane he launched. Meanwhile, the CIA's running around Mexico, Cuba's running out of diesel, and AOC is sharpening her ideological fangs. After Dark, as advertised.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show rundown and updates(00:45) - After Dark banter(01:47) - Trump meets Xi(02:47) - Why the summit matters(05:42) - Messaging and skepticism(08:04) - Military intelligence complex(09:46) - Tech split and hardware lobby(14:05) - Globalization lessons and leverage(20:29) - COVID and Nixon to China(25:00) - Who carries the baton(34:46) - China economics and engineering state(37:54) - Consumers inflation and pain tolerance(46:12) - Pentagon report dime framework(46:57) - DIME Framework Roast(47:53) - China and Hormuz Deal(52:11) - Chinese Shipping Boom(53:02) - Gulf Commodities Pivot(55:11) - US China Mixed Signals(59:12) - Mexico Relationship Flashpoints(01:01:23) - Cuba Protests and Indictments(01:03:27) - Do Mexicans Want Help(01:06:02) - CIA vs Delta Force Debate(01:12:47) - AOC Billionaire Clip(01:19:21) - Populism and Corruption(01:26:56) - California Race Wrap Up--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions(03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire(07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals(10:05) - G2 vs Multipolar Debate(12:17) - Should China Pressure Iran(15:57) - Global South Stakes and Bagels(18:34) - China Strategic Patience Rebuttal(32:03) - What China Offers the World(34:40) - Yuan Push and Middle Kingdom(36:54 China Whiffing the Moment(38:50) - China Constraints First(39:34) - Disciplining Iran Debate(41:29) - Multipolarity Versus Bipolar(43:08) - Iran Strikes UAE Update(45:33) - Ceasefire And Escalation(49:12) - Oil Inventories Supply Hole(51:15) - Markets Ignore War Risk(53:15) - AI Capex Takes Over(56:09) - Energy Inequality And Supply Chains(58:37) - Trump Priorities And Timeline(01:02:08) - Rebuilding After US Backstop(01:05:42) - Pandemic Shifted China Views(01:09:47) - Propaganda And Cultural Hegemony(01:14:55) - NBA Riffs And Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview.--Timestamps:(00:00) - After Dark(00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter(03:01) - From Sports to Iran(03:36) - Oil Shock Signals(05:46) - Ceasefire and Storage(10:06) - Demand Destruction Debate(13:48) - Trump Narrative and Blame(18:04) - Cold War Framing(19:27) - China Pressure and Pakistan(33:11) - UAE Leaves OPEC(36:30) - Cartels and Oil Math(40:00) - Saudi Price Warfare(41:06) - OPEC Share Debate(41:53) - UAE Saudi Rift Risks(42:49) - Why OPEC Can Undercut(46:12) - Putin Polls Warning(48:56) - Russia Pivot Playbook(55:06) - KD Leadership Analogy(01:01:06) - Panama Canal Signaling(01:07:12) - Canada Wealth Fund Plan(01:15:00) - Wrap Up and Playoffs--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be. Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Housekeeping(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check(05:16) - Fungible Oil and Discount Myth(11:02) - US Economy Needs Low Oil(18:17) - China Reserves and EV Strategy(22:46) - SPR Politics and Election Risk(25:57) - China Energy Stats and Seaborne Risk(31:26) - Trade Dependence and Supply Chains(34:06) - Five D Chess and US as Supplier(40:16) - Industrial Policy and Borg Metaphor(45:36) - Tariffs Versus Competition(47:41) - China EVs Copying Tesla(49:57) - Education And Immigration Edge(50:48) - Oil Sanctions Are Futile(52:23) - UAE Dollar Swap Line(54:52) - Japan China Tensions Rising(59:31) - DC Trip Policy Chaos(01:04:51) - Trump Court Politics(01:09:44) - Military Adults Missing(01:16:45) - Memes And Trade Value Tease(01:20:04) - Closing Banter And Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts(00:56) - Hero Principal Story(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets(12:30) - Nuclear Material Dilemma(15:09) - Deescalation and Market Complacency(22:28) - Is the Deal Superficial(28:31) - Will Iran Change Behavior(37:25) - Is Iran Really the Villain(41:45) - Iran vs Saudi Hypocrisy Debate(44:18) - Trump Is The Swamp(44:43) - Pump The Brakes On Iran(46:50) - Exit Middle East Vision(48:32) - Terrorism And Threat Math(50:23) - Opportunity Cost At Home(52:05) - Petrodollar Explained(55:51) - Inertia And Diversification(58:04) - Reputation Versus Savings(58:45) - Football Trade Metaphors(01:02:20) - Falcons Pain And Fandom(01:04:09) - Listener Coffee Shoutout(01:06:27) - Orban Era Ends(01:08:13) - Europe Rightward Shift(01:10:51) - Millennial Politics Rising(01:14:37) - TMZ Comes To DC(01:19:45) - Democracy Versus Elites(01:22:11) - Making Geopolitics Fun(01:25:39) - Sponsors And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter(04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions(05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold(07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth(14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives(16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance(18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits(22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers(28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity(31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains(38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term(39:05) - Energy Transit Logic(40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism(41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades(42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout(43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise(44:49) - US Forces Reality Check(47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities(49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China(56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices(59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups(01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play(01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift(01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow(01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Open(00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates(01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions(02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction(08:19) - Two Doors A Or B(11:43) - Door C War But Oil(16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets(20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability(24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios(35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage(37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits(38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario(39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate(41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift(43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium(46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check(49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover(50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument(54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US(59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case(1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State(01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks(01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption. His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.--Timestamps:00:00 Welcome01:32 Beer And Banter05:05 Trump Pause And Troops06:43 Oil Shock Timeline08:41 Houthis And Red Sea11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil13:43 Troop Math Reality18:06 War Outlook Shifts24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios28:50 Iran Constraints Debate32:20 Market Mispricing Pain34:12 China And Allies Fallout35:09 China Leverage on Iran36:55 Low Conviction Warnings37:53 Middle East War Normalized40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold48:36 Markets Start to Crack53:24 Munitions and Time Limits54:55 Europe Energy Exposure56:52 Europe Must Get Real59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.--Timestamps:(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap(02:15) - Trump War Quotes(02:54) - Menu Metaphor(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity(07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet(09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic(12:35) - Iran Succession Shock(14:43) - Attack Data and B52s(16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz(20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters(24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk(27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario(30:37) - Trump and Market Downside(32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy(36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building(38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency(40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines(41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace(43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down(45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters(47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran(51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check(53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario(59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down(01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation(01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:47) - Oval Office Firings(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat(08:57) - Iran Pain Threshold And Escalation(12:37) - Azerbaijan Kurds Regime Change Signals(13:44) - Why Iran Hits Everyone(19:53) - Why Trump Shifted On Iran(23:38) - Israel Influence Conspiracy Talk(27:07) - America Heat Check And Oil Shock(34:37) - Sparta Versus Athens Worldview(38:07) - Deep State Distraction Theory(39:36) - Strait of Hormuz Pain Threshold(41:43) - Red Lines for Escalation(44:39) - Iraq and Hezbollah Wildcards(46:25) - Why America Reveres the Military(51:54) - Let Them Drink Bleach Scenario(56:47) - April 5 Base Case Forecasts(01:03:50) - Polling and Midterm Pressure(01:08:52) - Eurotrip Meme Detour(01:11:14) - Oil Food Prices Final Warning--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.--Timestamps:(01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson(01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters(02:47) - Shipping Crisis Era(06:36) - Asia Demand Explained(08:18) - Flows Stop Prices Spike(11:24) - Insurance Myth GPS Spoofing(16:11) - Risk Premium Tanker Boom(21:21) - Can US Build Tankers(23:16) - How To Reopen Confidence(27:08) - Red Sea Part Two(30:48) - Rethinking Energy Routes(35:11) - Oil Types, Geology Limits(37:27) - Where To Follow Ed(38:41) - Closing Thanks--Referenced in the Show:Ed's Substack: https://edfin.substack.com/--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also some serious time spent debating Dubai - who it actually serves, whether its neutrality holds, and who could rival it as the next real safe haven. Throw in AI wargames going nuclear, Taiwan logic, brain drain, Venezuela as a leverage play, and a World War Z detour, and that's your episode :)--Timestamps:(01:23) - Wisconsin field research(02:22) - Thin ice markets framing(04:38) - Yom Kippur energy shock(07:51) - Regime collapse scenario(12:00) - Iran capabilities and drones(15:46) - Trump shipping insurance rant(26:08) - Allies reactions and Europe(30:05) - Spain politics and energy(31:48) - Combat Operation Wordplay(34:50) - Ukraine Hits Russian Oil(37:11) - Rules Based Order Myth(39:31) - Why No World War(42:00) - Nukes Change Everything(46:51) - How Many Countries Bombed(50:10) - World War Incentives(51:16 AI War Games Go Nuclear(53:19) - Dubai Safe Haven Debate(01:01:57) - UAE Risks And Rivals(01:03:42) - Picking New Safe Havens(01:05:14) - What Makes UAE Hard to Copy(01:08:35) - Neutrality and No Opinions(01:10:50) - Rubio Quote and Exit Ramps(01:13:26) - Israel Tech Debate and Stats(01:18:56) - Regional Hegemon and PR Problem(01:25:05) - Gulf States Need Israel Intel(01:35:26) - World War Z Detour(01:37:05) - Venezuela Leverage and Wrap Up--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe. History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the triumphalism and strap in for another fun episode of "America Intervenes Without Doing the Math Beforehand." --Timestamps:(01:01) - The Most Important Geopolitical Development This Week(02:51) - Seguing Into Iran War(04:48) - Regime Change Reality Check(10:56) - Decapitation Strike Fallout(12:20) - Saudi Angle And Gulf Targets(13:50) - Hormuz And Market Shock(19:26) - Drone War Asymmetry Risk(22:46) - Trump Regime Calibration(25:41) - Why Trump Could Do It(33:02) - Is Iran A US Threat(35:01) - Multipolar Message To World(38:58) - Unipolar Limits(40:24) - Deterrence Arms Race(41:49) - Multipolar 19th Century(44:24) - Is It About China(47:46) - Strait of Hormuz Signal(49:33) - Russia Oil Windfall(51:31) - Missiles and Deal Logic(53:58) - Eurasian Conflict Crescent(55:53) - Iran Civil War Risk(01:00:22) - Revolution Timing Debate(01:05:17) - Israel Factor in Uprisings(01:10:24) - Purim and Perceptions(01:12:16) - Ahmadinejad Legacy(01:15:44) - Wrap Up and Sign Off--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

No notes, just two geopolitical degenerates (Jacob and Marko) running a full-court press on the week’s chaos. The lads spar over Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ask whether a U.S. strike on Iran is strategy or pure domestic theater, and map out what escalation could really look like - from drones in the Strait of Hormuz to oil shocks and asymmetric retaliation. Then... they zoom out: nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world, Europe’s slow strategic awakening in Munich, and whether America’s foreign policy is performance art or hard power. It’s unscripted, blunt, and - annoyingly - extremely serious. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Beginning(02:29) - Who Showed Up to the Beijing Parade & “Board of Peace”?(04:24) - What Even Is the “Board of Peace”? (07:32) - Iran Time!(11:14) - Iran Capabilities & Asymmetry(14:54) - Worst-Case Escalation(25:36) - Trump’s “Punch-Then-Deal” Strategy(33:06) - Did the US Miss the Protest Window?(36:27) - So What Happens Next?(39:26) - Why Airstrikes Became America’s Default(40:45) - Geopolitics vs. US Domestic Politics(42:35) - Nuclear Proliferation Returns(48:18) - The Real Proliferation Risks(54:20) - Clean Energy, Cartels, and Why States Control Nukes(58:18) - Munich Security Conference Check-In(01:06:20) - Europe’s Next Security Umbrella(01:11:48) - Europe’s Demographics & Integration Debate(01:15:57) - The Multi‑Ethnic Europe That Might Return--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

You've been writing us questions, thoughts, prayers, and lambasting criticism for months - so today we're finally taking a dive into the inbox. Holy crap there's a lot here. Y'all mentioned The Wire, TDSDS, starting careers in geopolitical analysis, tech nationalism, the balkanization of the internet, and sooooo much more. Tune in to hear it all :) Thanks y'all.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:33) - The Wire(05:25) - Media Consumption and Bias(06:46) - Trump Derangement Syndrome and Strategic Thinking(16:16) - Effective Media Consumption Strategies(28:23) - Balancing Realism and Idealism in Humanitarian Work(35:28) - Navigating Career Dissonance(35:56) - Breaking into Geopolitical Analysis(37:16) - The Value of Mentorship(39:39) - Building Expertise in Geopolitics(41:27) - Creating and Sharing Content(43:18) - The Importance of Learning and Adaptability(44:59) - Geopolitical Decisions in Various Careers(53:53) - Shadow Fleets and Oil Markets(01:00:28) - Multipolar vs. Unipolar World Conflicts(01:06:42) - Balkanization of the Internet(01:09:25) - The Rise of Nationalism in Software(01:10:36) - The Tension Between Tech Companies and Governments(01:12:46) - The Impact of Snowden's Leak on American Tech(01:13:26) - Trump's Influence on Tech Nationalism(01:18:30) - Trump's Strategy for the Midterms(01:29:53) - The Geopolitical Importance of the Midwest(01:37:12) - The Future of Geopolitically Mundane Places--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:47) - Current Events(02:00) - US-India Trade Deal Analysis(04:58) - Iran-US Tensions and Potential Conflict(38:45) - Germany's Push for a Two-Speed Europe(49:04) - The Strategic Importance of Spain(49:42) - Immigration and Economic Growth in Europe(53:05) - Hungary and Serbia's Political Dynamics(55:04) - Debunking Demographic Myths(01:01:14) - The Decline of the United Nations(01:07:29) - Japan's Political and Economic Future(01:26:22) - The Role of the Federal Reserve--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The lads pick up where they left off in last week's episode with bias, plus a break down a chaotic global moment. Jacob and Marko unpack Mark Carney’s Davos speech and Canada’s sudden geopolitical assertiveness, arguing it marks a clean break from the rules-based order. They connect Canada’s stance to Trump’s tariffs, U.S. domestic unrest, China’s internal turmoil, and mounting Middle East tensions—framing the week as evidence that power politics, not norms, now define the global system--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:08) - Current Global Events and Updates(01:55) - Mark Carney's Geopolitical Moves(03:09) - Analysis of Carney's Speech at Davos(03:58) - Comparative Historical Speeches(04:57) - Canada's Strategic Position and Response(07:09) - Realpolitik and Global Power Dynamics(08:56) - Implications for Future Geopolitical Strategies(16:22) - The Role of Morality in International Relations(29:10) - Underdogs and National Struggles(34:23) - Pragmatic Foreign Policy Approaches(35:23) - The Dangers of Morality in Foreign Policy(36:17) - Critique of Mark Carney's Speech(38:45) - Canada's Bold Moves Against Trump(49:29) - The Iran Situation and Oil Prices(53:33) - Domestic Issues: Minnesota and ICE(01:07:14) - Grizzly History and Modern Comparisons(01:07:50) - Personal Experiences and Political Commentary(01:09:04) - Republican Backlash and Political Dynamics(01:15:25) - Midwest Musings and Listener Feedback(01:19:32) - China's Internal Dynamics and Geopolitical Risks(01:26:05) - Taiwan Tensions and Future Predictions(01:33:34) - Closing Thoughts and Future Plans--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

A chill manifesto against lazy thinking. A low-key diatribe about our preconceptions. Marko and Jacob take a second, amidst all the chaos of January 2026, to tear into the core failure of most geopolitical analysis - Bias. Real analysis means stripping away emotion, nationalism, and ego, then stress-testing your views until they break. From Trump and Canada to Russia, markets, and personal discipline, the point is simple: if you can’t argue the other side convincingly, you’re not an analyst—you’re a fan. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Today's word is....(00:39) - Listener Feedback and Basketball Metaphors(03:18) - Trump's Tariff Threats and Greenland(05:25) - Canada's Strategic Partnership with China(19:08) - Geopolitical Analysis and Bias(43:26) - Dealing with Hate Mail and Identity(43:55) - The Problem with Being Right(44:09) - Kobe Bryant's Shot Chart and Analysis Integrity(44:57) - Buddhism and Nihilism in Analysis(45:37) - Finance and Objectivity(47:29) - Bias in Finance and Politics(52:12) - Physical Fitness and Analysis(01:01:03) - Frameworks and Methodologies(01:12:15) - Humor and Passion in Analysis(01:15:02) - Final Thoughts on Being an Analyst--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran isn’t on the brink of some cinematic collaps - it’s rotting in place. Kamran Bokhari joins the boys to address the lazy “regime survives vs. regime falls” binary and looks at the reality of regime change: elite infighting, military power, succession chaos, and the slow erosion of state authority. Kamran lays out why decay, not revolution, is the base case - and why that mess matters far beyond Iran’s borders, reshaping regional power from Israel to Central Asia.--Timestamps:(00:49) - Introducing Kamran and the Iranian Context(01:43) - Iran's Political Landscape and Regime Stability(05:03) - Historical Context and Regime Evolution(09:06) - Internal Dynamics and Military Influence(12:36) - Potential for Change and Succession(16:40) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook(24:52) - Economic Interests and Sanctions(33:58) - Regional Influence and Strategic Interests(45:10) - US Geostrategy and Burden Sharing(46:08) - National Security Strategy and Spheres of Influence(46:56) - Iran's Regional Influence and Internal Dynamics(49:11) - Potential Civil War in Iran(56:21) - Historical Context and Ethnic Composition of Iran(01:02:19) - Geopolitical Implications of Iran's Situation(01:11:39) - Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence(01:24:33) - Final Thoughts and Broader Geopolitical Issues--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Look, if you’re still scrolling Twitter for shitty takes on why the Arctic is "strategic," do yourself a favor and put down your phone (after you hit play on this episode). It's a choke point for ICBMs and the GIUK gap, not a brand new new real estate discovery. Tada :) The real story isn't about rare earths or buying ice - it’s about the raw power disparity between a superpower and a NATO ally that’s historically had to swallow American sovereignty on its own soil. Meanwhile, in Tehran, the "analytical trap" is to dismiss the protests as just another 2009. But with oil sub-$50, no off-ramps, and a regime showing actual cracks, the question isn’t if things change - it’s whether the IRGC is ready to trade an 87-year-old Supreme Leader for a seat at the table. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:57) - Iran's Economic Crisis and Protests(02:49) - US-Iran Relations and Potential Outcomes(11:57) - Historical Analogies and Regime Change(17:21) - Greenland's Strategic Importance(24:37) - US-Denmark Relations and Sovereignty Issues(34:49) - Denmark's Historical Significance and WWII Heroics(35:36) - The Stupidity of Invading Greenland(35:54) - Republican Senators' Opposition(37:44) - Senator Kennedy's Southern Charm(40:34) - Trump's 19th Century Worldview(41:31) - The Importance of NATO and Denmark's Role(41:58) - Greenland's Resources and American Interests(42:37) - Europe's Response to Trump's Greenland Obsession(49:37) - Geopolitical Realities and American Ignorance(01:01:34) - The Complexity of Geopolitical Analysis--Referenced in the Show:Greenland Breakdown - https://jashap.substack.com/p/greenland--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Cousins™ dismantle the lazy myths swirling around Venezuela, U.S. power, and the idea that every successful strike is a reusable template. This is about oil, incentives, and why markets consistently misunderstand force until it’s already been applied. Most importantly, this episode is a warning against one of the most dangerous impulses in geopolitics: assuming yesterday’s clean win guarantees tomorrow’s easy one. When credibility is tested and restraint looks optional, the real risk isn’t chaos - it’s overconfidence.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(04:55) - Discussion on Venezuela and US Foreign Policy(06:20) - Saudi Arabia's Economic Strategy and Oil Market Dynamics(15:11) - Potential Geopolitical Moves: Iran, Cuba, and Greenland(33:10) - Trump's Trolling Tactics(33:26) - Venezuela's Impact on Trump's Strategy(34:18) - Trump's Liberal Tendencies(35:07) - Greenland and NATO Implications(36:03) - Legal Constraints and Political Realities(38:00) - Republican Party Dynamics(39:09) - Geopolitical Myths and Realities(50:27) - US Intervention History(01:00:50) - Rare Earths and Global Strategy(01:02:12) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Welcome to another normal week in geopolitics - on your left, you'll see the Trump administration (allegedly) flying into Caracas at 1am and walking Nicolás Maduro out the door. No moral sermons, no democracy talk, just raw power politics, naked and unapologetic. Jacob and Marko unpack what this moment says about American empire, hypocrisy fatigue, regime change fantasies, and why history, from Panama to Iran, keeps repeating itself.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Podcast Announcement(00:31) - US Attack on Venezuela: Initial Reactions(02:11) - Historical Context of US Foreign Policy(03:12) - Trump's Hypocrisy and US Foreign Policy Consistency(03:49) - Marko's Perspective on the US Operation in Venezuela(05:37) - Conspiracy Theories and Military Operations(07:42 Implications of the US Operation in Venezuela(11:56) - Potential Regime Change in Venezuela(16:54) - Cuba as the Next Geopolitical Target(27:42) - Latin America's Political Landscape and US Influence(41:03) - Global Power Shifts and Resource Relevance(41:45) - China's Influence in South America(43:41) - Challenges of Economic Development in Latin America(46:20) - Geopolitical Tensions and Regime Changes(48:49) - The Chuck Norris Premium and Oil Prices(01:04:28) - Middle Eastern Conflicts and Rivalries(01:14:27) - Geopolitical Movies and Historical Events----Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Geopolitics isn’t just policy memos and grim men in bad suits... it’s explosions, bad decisions, and unintended consequences (preferably set to a great score). The movies that we obsess over aren’t accidental; they’re training wheels for understanding power.War films that explain absolutely nothing.Spy thrillers where everyone is in the wrong.Resource dramas where greed wins (reality?).Collapse stories where systems rot from the inside.Cinema is where geopolitics drops the pretense and tells the truth: states are insecure, leaders are flawed, and incentives matter more than intentions. Consider this a syllabus disguised as a watchlist - where empires rise, fall, and usually trip over their own feet along the way.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:54) - Categories of Geopolitical Movies(04:44) - First Pick(09:15) - Second Pick(14:26) - Third Pick(18:59) - Fourth Pick(22:27) - Fifth Pick(25:10) - Sixth Pick(30:43) - Seventh Pick(32:14) - Eighth Pick(34:50) - Ninth Pick(36:00) - Listen to find out :)--Referenced in the Show:Jacob's List:Marko's List:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Welcome to the future. In 2026, we're pretty convinced that the global map will get some major rewrites. Our '26 bingo card has the potential collapse of the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes, the end of the war in Ukraine, and the subsequent battle for Russia’s very soul crossed out. While others fear peaking deglobalization, Marko and Jacob see a path to lowered tariffs and an incoming LNG glut that finally breaks the back of Europe’s energy crisis. It’s time to stop looking for patterns and start preparing for the non-linear :) chaoschaoschaoschaos--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:16) - Forecasting 2026: Tariffs and Trade(04:40) - US-China Relations and Latin America Focus(11:03) - Predictions for Venezuela and Cuba(13:55) - Ukraine War and Russian Politics(23:57) - European Energy Market Outlook(28:36) - Middle East: A Callous Perspective(29:50) - Saudi Arabia and UAE: Progress and Predictions(30:25) - Iran's Uncertain Future(32:11) - Turkey's Role in Geopolitics(33:08) - Oil Prices and Middle East Stability(35:59) - Israel's Resilience and Market Impact(39:42) - Forecasting Global Trade Agreements(44:57) - The Rise of Robotics in 2026(51:34) - Blind Spots and Unmentioned Regions(54:41) - Final Thoughts and Potential Oversights--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Look, the world is decoupling, and everyone is making their bet. Mexico just threw their chips on the table with 50% tariffs, effectively divorcing China to marry the U.S. in a desperate play for North American relevance. Meanwhile, the Andes are swinging hard right, betting that nationalism and market-pro policies are the only way to survive a multipolar free-for-all.... But here's the truth: tariffs are just a consumption tax in a MAGA hat, and if the Supreme Court kills them, the bond market is going to riot. Forget the politics; follow the robots and the revenue.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome :)(01:41) - Mexico's Tariff Decision(07:44) - The Impact of Robotics on Manufacturing(23:42) - Chile's Shift to the Right(24:56) - Right-Wing Movements in Latin America(31:22) - Crime and Immigration in Latin America(38:13) - Montreal and Miami: Cities Built on Illicit Trafficking(38:55) - The Godfather: An American Story of Crime and Legitimization(40:14) - Fentanyl: Declared a Weapon of Mass Destruction(42:38) - US Foreign Policy: Lessons from the 1980s(46:05) - The Trump Administration's Controversial Policies(56:44) - Supreme Court and Tariffs: A Critical Decision(01:10:54) - Concluding Thoughts on US Policy and Economics--Referenced in the Show:Fent is a WMD: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/designating-fentanyl-as-a-weapon-of-mass-destruction/--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The global discourse has hit a new low: political commentators are creating content out of a YouTube moron’s mean-spirited quest for clicks. Nick Fuentes, please, for the love of god, do better. Marko and Jacob drill past the outrage to ask why "mean" has become the default setting for public life.Then, Marko takes on the herculean task of defending the US' new National Security Strategy - which correctly identifies the need for a vital Europe, even if its authors got their core immigration data from clickbait white-woke channels. Finally, the real game: the US-Mexico-China trade triangle, where the path to American greatness may involve Chinese-built factories in Ohio.It’s nihilism, baby.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Setting the Scene(00:43) - Late Night Recording and Personal Updates(01:40) - Controversial Discussion on Hitler and Nick Fuentes(05:44) - Media's Role and Public Perception(26:39) - National Security Strategy Debate(34:28) - European Support for the Euro(35:15) - American Perception of the EU(38:27) - France and the Euro(42:14) - Misdiagnosing Europe's Problems(48:51) - US Seizes Venezuelan Oil Tanker(56:54) - Mexico's Tariffs on Chinese Imports(58:57) - US-China Relations and Manufacturing(01:05:32) - Podcast Wrap-Up and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:National Security Strategy 2025 - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Let's talk about the National Security Strategy! American policy is entering its “choose-your-own-adventure” era, where fiscal dreams meet bond-market reality, and every global problem looks oddly like a mortgage-rate issue. What happens when primacy of nations collides with actual nations... some of which are run by people you wouldn’t trust with your lawnmower? Marko and Jacob step up to trade pitches on Trump’s “peace,” Venezuela’s theatrics, Honduras’ magical disappearing red lines, and whether geopolitics is now basically just offshore balancing with better PR. Enjoy!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Geopolitical Cousins(01:14) - Raccoon Story and Algorithm Talk(02:40) - Basketball and Leadership Analogies(05:54) - Geopolitics Starts lol(06:10) - Trump Accounts and Economic Policies(21:17) - National Security Strategy Discussion(47:04) - Critique of US Foreign Policy Rigidity(47:18) - Pragmatism in US Foreign Policy(47:35) - US Stance on Iran and Social Issues(48:33) - Historical Context and Containment Policy(49:24) - Flexible Foreign Policy and Realism(50:37) - US Actions in Venezuela and Honduras(56:38) - Venezuela's Oil and US Interests(58:44) - Honduras' Strategic Importance(01:01:55) - US Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy(01:03:19) - National Security Strategy and Global Military Presence(01:08:11) - Debate on Multipolar World and US Strategy(01:23:14) - AI, Crypto, and National Security(01:29:32) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:National Security Strategy Document - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Rising political extremes, shifting alliances, and competing visions of global order collide as leaders improvise their way through economic anxiety and geopolitical recalibration. Matt Gertken hops into the fray to help the cousins probe the uncomfortable overlap between left-wing populism and right-wing nationalism, the strategic ambiguity surrounding Taiwan, and the high-stakes bargaining shaping the future of Ukraine. What happens when power politics, domestic fragility, and global insecurity all peak at the same time?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Setup(00:40) - Trump and Momani's Unlikely Friendship(02:17) - Analyzing Trump's Political Moves(13:05) - Japan-China Tensions Escalate(17:54) - Geopolitical Implications for Taiwan(30:20) - Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan Discussion(37:19) - Europe's Commitment to Ukraine(38:34) - Ukraine's Strategic Calculations(39:21) - Ukrainian Public Sentiment(40:43) - Debating Russia's Military Competence(43:10) - The 28-Point Plan and Zelensky's Political Future(43:34) - Economic Interests and Rebuilding Ukraine(44:38) - Security Guarantees and Diplomatic Challenges(56:50) - Trump's Role and Strategic Ambitions(01:01:39) - Conspiracy Theories and Speculations(01:02:40) - Debating China's Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict(01:03:50) - Speculating on Ukraine's Future and European Dynamics(01:05:36) - Potential Outcomes of a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal(01:11:16) - Historical Analogies and Russia's Political Future(01:21:06) - Geopolitical Shifts and the Role of China(01:26:49) - Thanksgiving Anecdotes and Closing Remarks--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob and Marko finally caved to the mob on X and did what everyone (one guy who asked nicely) keeps yelling at them to do - rank the top five geopolitical U.S. presidents and the bottom five disasters. Not the best presidents. Not the most “inspirational.” The most geopolitically competent… and the ones who should never have been allowed within 500 feet of foreign policy.It gets spicy. Lincoln shows up with ruthless brilliance, Polk rolls in like the ultimate expansionist psychopath, Teddy swings a big stick (and probably breaks a few ribs), and then we get to the bottom five - where the real chaos lives.Why do some leaders bend history while others trip over it? And what happens when the world’s biggest superpower forgets the stakes?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Best Intro Ever(00:42) - Listener Reactions and Content Expectations(01:43) - Current Events and Personal Opinions(02:37) - Coffee Rant and Personal Preferences(05:07) - Geopolitical Anecdotes and Personal Stories(09:58) - Top Five Geopolitical US Presidents(14:10) - Debating Presidential Competence(46:05) - Reagan's Foreign Policy and the Gulf War(46:56) - George HW Bush's Strategic Decisions(48:29) - Bush's Approach to China and Tiananmen Square(49:54) - Theodore Roosevelt's Foreign Policy Legacy(50:58) - Comparing Presidential Foreign Policies(54:50) - Honorable Mentions and Controversial Picks(01:10:17) - Worst Foreign Policy Presidents(01:20:14) - LBJ's Economic and War Policies((01:21:14 George W. Bush's Foreign Policy Failures(01:22:12) - The Impact of Al-Qaeda and the War on Terror(01:26:07) - Truman's Geopolitical Blunders(01:32:26) - Bill Clinton's Missed Opportunities(01:39:36) - Eisenhower's Domino Theory and CIA Operations(01:48:39) - Biden's Foreign Policy Critique(01:59:18) - Final Thoughts and Reflections--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Power tilts, voter moods, and economic pressures collide as shifting swing-state margins, rising price levels, and clashing visions of populism redefine the boundaries of U.S. politics. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro traces how competing narratives on inflation, governance, and national identity shape the struggles within both major parties, while global tensions - from tariff battles to uneasy U.S.-China rapprochement - raise the stakes. At its core lies a question: can the political center hold when every lever of power is pulled toward extremes?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:58) - Personal Anecdotes and Flu Game Discussion(02:43) - Client Call Story and Michael Jordan Stats(04:32) - Health Updates and Podcast Menu(05:14) - Democratic Election Victories Analysis(06:20) - Republican Challenges and Latino Vote Shift(08:19) - Potential Democratic Presidential Nominees(17:27) - Inflation and Economic Policies Debate(27:12) - Populism and Fiscal Policies(42:24) - Supreme Court and Tariff Discussions(45:56) - Uncertainty in Trade Policies(46:42) - US-China Trade Deal Breakdown(47:56) - Global Reactions and Comparisons(49:06) - Public Opinion on Trade(50:47) - Trump's Trade War and Its Implications(52:03) - US-China Relations and Future Prospects(01:11:58) - Venezuela and US Foreign Policy(01:22:57) - The Future of Global Geopolitics(01:34:06) - Conclusion and Upcoming Episodes--Referenced in the Show:Communist Reagan - https://x.com/aidannonx/status/1982662832521875962?s=20--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Sanctions, alliances, and power balances are shifting faster than markets can price them. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro look at the U.S. Treasury’s crackdown on Russian oil, the fragility of global energy flows, and the illusion of stability in a world built on competing pain thresholds. Between Washington’s brinkmanship, Moscow’s resolve, and Beijing’s quiet calculation, this episode dissects how endurance—not strategy—defines modern geopolitics, and why every great power eventually meets its limit.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Promotion(00:20) - US-Russia Relations and Sanctions(02:02) - Ukraine Conflict and Ceasefire Prospects(06:03) - European Energy Dependence on Russia(11:36) - Trump's Foreign Policy and Strategic Goals(26:55) - Canada-US Trade Tensions(40:39) - The Limits of Military Power(41:10) - China's Economic Leverage(41:39) - The Trade War Dynamics(42:26) - China's Manufacturing Dependency(43:19) - The Challenge of Decoupling(44:17) - China's Consumer Market Issues(46:32) - The Future of US-China Relations(52:42) - The Role of Semiconductors(57:39) - The Reality of Trade Deals(01:02:23) - Geopolitical Strategies and Misunderstandings(01:05:25) - US Military Posturing in Venezuela(01:15:34) - Trump's Military Strategy and Liberal Media Critique(01:16:46) - Venezuela and Regime Change(01:18:13) - North Korea and Trump's Near Miss(01:19:22) - Maduro's Offer and US Interests(01:28:11) - China's Role and Global Energy Politics(01:38:03) - NBA Scandals and Player Dynamics(01:47:47) - Baseball Playoffs and Personal Anecdotes--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Global trade isn’t just an economic story - it’s a test of power, pride, and patience. Jacob and Marko dive into the illusion of U.S.-China decoupling, exploring how power, dependency, and ideology are colliding in a world too connected to pull apart. From semiconductor choke points to rare earth retaliation, the United States and China are caught in a feedback loop of control and dependency that neither can fully escape. The cousins challenge the myth of economic sovereignty and ask what it really means to compete when every side still depends on the other to function.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:38) - Basketball Banter and Podcast Dynamics(01:31) - Ryan Russillo's Move to Barstool Sports(04:31) - US-China Trade Relations and Rare Earth Elements(13:30) - Bureaucratic Inertia and US Foreign Policy(17:45) - Technological Decoupling and Global Trade(21:04) - Geopolitical Realities and Future Predictions(40:15) - Allies and Economic Dependencies(41:30) - American Public Opinion on Trade and China(48:04) - Generational Differences in Political Activism(50:02) - Global Protests and Political Unrest(01:05:31) - Emergence of New Political Brands(01:12:38) - Cocaine and Global Trade(01:16:53) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro