Tim Dower: Has National played a smart card?

Now we've had a day to mull it over... has Christopher Luxon played a smart card or a dopey one?  Up until yesterday we were under the impression Luxon wants nothing less than to have to deal with New Zealand First.  But this feels like an admission of defeat, as though Luxon has realised NZ First may well hit the threshold, and if they do that's going to drag down the number of seats National can have.  He says he'll do whatever it takes to form a coalition and I guess a lot of people will have wanted to hear that, and his reinforcing line about ACT being his preferred coalition partner without New Zealand First.  But by putting it on the agenda on a Monday morning less than three weeks before polling day has Luxon gifted a swag of attention, if not votes, to his least preferred coalition partner?  With the prospect of seats around the Cabinet table and of course an important job for Winston Peters, that vote looks a lot less like a wasted vote than it might have done.  So some right-leaning voters, mentioning no names here, are going to feel cheated and sold down the river.  Interesting to see what Sir John Key says about it all. He's been there, done that, and he's pretty much endorsed the Luxon move.  That's despite the fact that Key himself did rule out New Zealand First.  Key says it's a wise strategy based on simple maths, and there's a very high expectation from New Zealanders that the largest party after an election will do everything it can to put together a government and save us having another election.  I guess when you look at it like that, yes, we do expect the biggest party to lead the way towards a coalition.  But we expected that six years ago when National won 56 seats and Labour had 46, and what did we get? And why did we get that?  Work it out for yourself. What really happens if NZ First hits the threshold? They haven't gone with National in 27 years, is that about to change?  Not my place to tell you how to vote. I'll just say this: we're not at a political crossroads in New Zealand, we're at a T-junction  Start down either of the roads ahead of us and it's a hard road back if we get it wrong.  So, which way are we going? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.