Tom & Mick: Trading Livestock, Grazing Systems and the Long Game with Nigel Kerin

The Tom & Mick show continues with a practical conversation on livestock trading, grazing systems, business resilience and long-term decision making.Tom and Mick are joined by Nigel Kerin, CEO of Kerin Ag, to unpack how his business approaches livestock trading, forward contracts, pasture management, Wagyu, and the systems that drive profitability through both dry and strong seasons.From the role of grass budgets and forward pricing to lessons from drought, inflation and on-farm technology, Nigel shares a grounded look at what it takes to build a resilient livestock business.In this episode:Nigel’s background and Kerin AgCentral west NSW grazing business based south of DubboKerin Ag founded through succession in 2007Built around Merinos, a newer Wagyu seedstock arm, and a growing trading enterpriseHow the trading business worksTrading introduced as a pressure valve for seasonal variability and cashflowDecisions driven by grass budgets, not headline market pricesFocus on securing the sell price first, then finding the buyForward contracts used to remove emotion and manage downside riskWhy relationships matterThe value of strong relationships with agents, commission buyers, financiers, processors and transportersCreating win-win outcomes across the supply chainWhy trust and consistency matter when operating at speed in trading marketsThe 2020 lamb tradeLocking in a $9/kg dressed weight JBS contract as drought brokeContracting 15,800 lambs before owning any of themHow forward pricing protected the business when the spot market later fell sharplyA defining trade that helped get the business back in the blackShould every livestock producer trade?Nigel’s view: absolutely notWhy trading needs systems, rules, finance and disciplineThe danger of trading without forward pricing or without enough grassTechnology and grazing systemsRegular pasture analysis every 10–14 days in growing periodsUsing OptiWeigh, soil moisture probes and grazing data to drive decisionsThe emergence of a new grazing app Nigel describes as potentially “the auto-steer for grazing”Why Kerin Ag moved into WagyuReturn on grass as a major driverLower adult cow weight and efficiency compared with larger framed alternativesTaking a long-game view on Wagyu economics rather than reacting to short-term cyclesInflation and on-farm economicsNigel’s estimate that on-farm inflation has run at 7.8% annually post-COVIDWhy understanding business cost inflation is critical to decision makingThe importance of introducing structural change in good times, not when under pressureKey business lessonsSystems matter more than goals on their ownFeed efficiency and speed of turnover are central to profitIn agriculture, long-term averages matter more than short-term noise“Don’t run out of grass” remains one of the core rules of a successful trading businessThis episode is full of practical insight for livestock producers, graziers, advisors, seedstock operators and ag businesses thinking about risk, trading, pasture utilisation and long-term business performance. It’s a valuable conversation on how to build guardrails, use data well, and make better decisions through changing seasons and volatile conditions.