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President Trump is reshaping America's role in the world. And this week, Trump appears to be waging war. It's all about trade wars, Trump's war on the U.S. government bureaucracy and the real war between Russia and Ukraine. Welcome to Sidebar from The Washington Post. I'm Libby Casey, and I'm here with senior politics correspondent Rhonda Colvin, columnist and editorial writer James Holman. And this week, we're talking Trump versus the world. OK, guys, by the end of today's show, we'll try to figure out what role President Trump really wants America to play. Let's start with trade. OK, the trade war is already underway.
Is it, James? Because just as we got ready to tape, there was breaking news about Trump pulling back on some of these tariffs he had not just threatened, but implemented. So much of the last several days has been defined by confusion and chaos. The markets ping ponging, they're down big again today. And after another big drop, Trump announced that Mexico will be granted a month long reprieve from tariffs on goods that fall under the existing free trade agreement that Trump renegotiated during his first term, the so-called USMCA, US Mexico Canada. What is not clear at this hour is whether that also applies to Canada.
So there's some confusion. This happened because Claudia Scheinbaum, the president of Mexico, who thus far has held off and saying what she'd retaliate against. She announced that she was going to have a big rally on the national square in Mexico City on Sunday to announce all the things that she was going to retaliate. And it was it seems like that was what sort of prompted Trump to to diffuse this. but only for a month. So for how long, what does this really mean? It's very hard to keep track. So you have to have the Washington Post app because you got to keep checking it. I have you guys, but yes, I also have the app. So, okay, this news broke, this walk back on social media. This is how Trump shared it, right? Via social media, this decision that he's made. And he wrote, Rhonda, about the relationship he has with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. And he said, you know, we're going to pull back on this. We agreed Mexico will not be required to pay the tariffs on anything that falls under that agreement. I did this as an accommodation and out of respect for President Sheinbaum. Our relationship has been a very good one.
I just want to linger on that because what is making these decisions? Is it about dollars and cents and American manufacturing or is it about relationships with world leaders? Yeah, that's a really good question because that stood out to me. His Truth Social post about delaying this right now because they have such a good relationship. And it is similar to what he said about her when he did the first delay about a month ago when he said he was imposing tariffs on Mexico and then rolled it back and said that, you know, I believe he said she's a smart woman or he has said a lot of complimentary things about her. So it does raise the question of.
Is his decisions going to be based on the relationship he has with that world leader? We do know there were, and I think we're going to get into it, but some difficult words said by Trudeau this week toward Donald Trump, showing that there must be strain in that relationship, of course. But it is interesting that he did in that announcement about delaying tariffs, which really has made the markets a little unstable, has made a lot of people nervous, that he is saying that this is partially based on the fact that they have a good working relationship. And this is phone call diplomacy. Trump is all about.
You know, in his head, the art of the deal. It's almost like he's an arsonist who's starting fires and then rushing to put them out and then declaring victory. But it is really striking because when you listen to Trump during the campaign and he talked about tariffs, he did talk about them in this. We're going to have a manufacturing renaissance sort of way that this was about the economy and bringing manufacturing back. And now, more recently, when he's been talking about tariffs, he talks about them in a national security way. We heard it in the State of the Union. He said we have to have tariffs on Mexico in order to coerce them into cooperating with us on fighting fentanyl and the cartels. And there was.
One of the most surreal moments in the joint address, which we all watched together, was Trump said, we need to put these tariffs in place on Mexico because they're not helping us fight drugs. And then three paragraphs later, he says, just yesterday, Mexico turned over 39 cartel leaders. And so it gets to the dissonance because it's frankly a lot more defensible if you're sort of like, we want to reorient the American economy. We want to reinvigorate American manufacturing and all these jobs that were lost because of NAFTA in 1993. But he talks about.
tariffs as if they're sanctions, not tariffs. And I do wonder to what extent that's going to change because it is so at odds with this campaign rhetoric. But Trump is saying that the tariffs on Canada are in large part because of fentanyl. And to your point, James, it's like a shift in reasoning. But there's not a fentanyl crisis at the northern border, Rhonda. He's really exaggerating this. There is not. There is about 1% of fentanyl that's coming over the northern border. Most of the share that is being confiscated by Border Patrol is coming from Mexico. But the latest numbers that I found this week from the DEA and the U.S. Border Patrol is that there has been a total of 22,000 pounds seized, fentanyl seized at the border in 2024. At which border?
At overall borders, all borders. But the only 40 pounds were seized from Canada. The remainder of that, so about 21000 pounds, has been seized at the southern border. So, yes, there is an issue with the opioid crisis and attaching this to the opioid crisis. Trudeau has said that he said that they have been on top of it as much as they can. But he also reminded measures to please the United States to try to tell monitor activity along the border. So I even made some.
steps to work on that. Right, exactly. But the share, the biggest share of fentanyl seized has been coming from the southern border. So to apply tariffs to both countries that border us when one has more of a share of seized fentanyl, that has been one of the things that Trudeau has been saying is just not unfair and it's not accurate to base tariffs, any sort of retaliatory tariffs on them for that. So we'll talk more about Trudeau in a minute because it is fascinating what is happening in Canadian politics because of this. But let's just review. We're talking Canada, Mexico and China. James, what is still on?
The tariffs in China are still on. The tariffs in Canada, as far as we know, are still on. And the tariffs on Mexico are on a month from now. So there's this uncertainty if you're a business leader trying to make a decision about investing somewhere or someone trying to decide whether to buy a car. And in theory, based on the announcement by Trump on social media, the Mexican tariffs would go fully back into effect on the same day that, as Trump announced to Congress this week, the so-called reciprocal tariffs will go into place. And what this means in practice is that basically anyone who has a tariff on us from anywhere in the world, we're going to apply a tariff on them of the equal amount.
lead to significantly higher barriers. In addition to Mexico getting a reprieve, the auto industry also got a reprieve. Why? Because the big three automakers went to Trump on Tuesday and said, this is going to kill us. We're going to have to shutter a bunch of factories. We rely on parts from Canada and Mexico. The supply chains for making vehicles has become incredibly complicated. And we're going to have to stop making vehicles and lay off thousands of people if you don't take this boot off our neck. There's a science to natural gas safety. Signs of a gas leak, testing your carbon monoxide alarms, keeping your gas meter and vents properly maintained. But you don't need to be a scientist.
You just need to know what to do. Learn more at embergegas.com slash safety. When it comes to the big questions, who you ask matters. From breaking news to politics that impact your life to advice you can trust. Get answers you don't have to question with Ask the Post AI. Trained exclusively on post journalism with clear sourcing. And if we don't know the answer, we'll tell you. Ask the Post AI. Find it on washingtonpost.com or in the app. Is this typical Trump? Like as a businessman, you know, he would just throw a bunch of stuff out there and see what sticks. Is that what he's doing, Rhonda?
I think it's a little bit of that. And we should also say that these tariffs don't come as a big, they should not come as a big surprise because A, Trump did tariffs in his first term. Primarily they were around steel and they didn't make sort of the same splash that they're making right now, but he did do them and he appears to be a fan of tariffs. The other part of this, too, is he was on the campaign trail saying he would do this exact thing. It was reported, well reported for months ahead of the election. I think that there was this idea that maybe he wouldn't go too far. Maybe he would read the room and see that this may not be getting into a trade war, has a lot of complications. But he is moving forward on something that he had been already talking about. So I do think he likes the idea of tariffs being a vehicle for him to be this this negotiator or the deal, you know, the author of the art of the deal, being that businessman, being, you know, the leader of not only his country, but the globe, the strongman persona that he likes to put out there. I think that this helps.
especially when the tariffs are applied and then you roll it back because you say you have heard from that world leader and they're going to do what you say. I mean, I just love the way James put it. You're like the arsonist and the firefighter because you only seem strong if you don't back down. So the question is, will Americans perceive this as backing down or like wiffle waffling or as like getting what you want? I mean, he's talked about tariffs for decades. That was his favorite word. He said it's a more beautiful word than love on the campaign trail. But even there, like backing down, Trump is all about toughness, all about perceptions.
Part of it, I think the reason he felt like he had to let these go into effect on Tuesday was because he'd been out there threatening them and threatening them and threatening them. And so he didn't feel like he could back down before they went into effect because that's like waving around a gun and not using it. So he felt like he had to put them into effect. But now the markets are tanking. Businesses are freaking out. It's causing this huge rupture. And he's backing down. He's trying to spin it as a victory. So Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum did not react when he slapped the tariffs on this week. She said they would be responding over the weekend. So there were some days there. However, the Canadians responded right away. China responded right away.
Let's talk about Canadian politics. Justin Trudeau, like he's got one foot out the door, James, in Canada. Oh, Canada. I mean, his career has really fallen and his party's fortunes have fallen up until this moment. Tell us more. Yeah. I mean, Justin Trudeau was this kind of darling of Canadian politics. His father was prime minister in the 70s and 80s, and he is going to leave with like a 20 percent approval rating. And conservatives are poised to win. Interestingly, the White House is really enjoying.
trolling Trudeau. It's really kind of amazing. And official statements like readouts that the White House sends out of official calls between Trump and Trudeau. They refer to him as Governor Trudeau. This idea that Canada is going to be the 51st state. It's just it's just a.
really just a middle finger. And Trudeau has been struggling to sort of look tough and get the right balance. Interestingly, even though conservatives are poised to win, Trump's antics are actually sort of hurting them because it's making a lot of Canadian voters rethink wanting to put the conservatives in charge because Trump is being so rude to the country. Is it reshaping the elections there? Is it going that far? Totally. This is the dominant issue in the election. And we're seeing like a...
strain of Canadian nationalism that we have not seen in a long time. And Canadians are pissed at the U.S. I mean, they are booing the national anthem at hockey games where they play the Canadian national anthem, the U.S. national anthem. Ronda, they're removing American items from the shelves. And they've named some of the coffee shops have renamed Americanos to, is it Canadianos? Canadianos? Yeah, I couldn't quite remember how to pronounce it. It doesn't roll off the tongue. But it is interesting. It's sort of like the reverse Freedom Prize. Oh, yeah. Totally. But yeah, we're seeing. 9-11 when we were no longer allowed to call French fries. Right, right. French fries. It is really interesting, too, to know that there are a lot of Americans who live or have come from Canada. There are several states that border Canada. They're not that different.
All three of the big industrial Midwest, sort of Rust Belt states, border Canada, there's a lot of trade. You go to vacation in Canada, you know, Niagara Falls, you know, three hour trip from where I'm from in Ohio. So it is, it's, you know, it's not a distant place. And to have a strain on a relationship, I mean, in all seriousness, could have ramifications later on. We do some intelligence sharing with Canada. We certainly need their help with border patrol. So to not have the relationship that we did have about, what, a month ago, two months ago, it's really startling. Let's listen to how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who as James.
said has really, I mean, he's about to like crawl out of office, but suddenly he's like re-found a voice. Let's hear how he responded. On Tuesday, the day that the tariffs went into effect to President Trump, the U.S., and his own Canadian people. So today, the United States launched a trade war against Canada. Their closest partner and ally, the closest French. At the same time, they're talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin, a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense. What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy.
Because that'll make it easier to annex us, is the second half of his thought. Now, first of all, that's never going to happen. We will never be the 51st state. Wow, Rhonda. You have to wonder, and I watched this speech as it was happening on Tuesday, you have to wonder if other world leaders would like to say what Trudeau said. I mean, we talked about how he has one foot out of the door, so he may be a little freer to say things like that. I think it's working for him politically in Canada, right? He's thinking about his domestic audience. That's true. It's working for him that way. But I do also wonder if others are thinking the same thing, other world leaders who are now trying to figure out what is their relationship with Donald Trump? What is their relationship with the United States? It is, I don't think we can say, go too far right now to say we are in some sort of geopolitical realignment, but it does feel as if...
countries and allies are reassessing how they approach the next four years. Maybe not even four years, maybe even the next year. Let's talk about Russia and Ukraine. I mean, tensions are so high, obviously, after that explosive meeting. public meeting in the Oval Office. We'd never seen anything like it before. The president of the United States, the vice president berating and yelling at the president of Ukraine, who was giving it back to them, talking over each other, yelling. Zelensky left, no deal signed, had to go to Europe and say, look, this is like, it's us now. It's just us. We have to figure out how to do this. Let's talk about the developments since then, James. What else has Trump and the United States done to penalize or alienate Ukraine? So the biggest thing is that they cut off the supply of additional material, weapons and material. And the second biggest thing, which is hugely significant, is that they stopped.
sharing critical intelligence that the Ukrainians were depending on to target. Russians in their fight at the front. And taken together, analysts believe that Ukraine will run out of weapons in the early summer. But even now, their weapons are much less effective. And Russia is manufacturing 2000 drones a day, which they are deploying into the field and using to attack Ukrainian targets. The third thing that they did, maybe the third most significant thing is that they, Secretary Defense Pete Hegseth, ordered an immediate stop to all offensive cyber operations by the US Cyber Command against Russian targets. And Russia is continuing to engage.
in pervasive efforts to undermine American confidence, but also undermine the Ukrainians to sow doubt in Ukraine to undermine Zelensky in Ukraine. And the Kremlin said, the official spokesman said that what Trump is doing largely aligns with Russia's interests. And so I think Trump likes to see himself as this person who's mediating a peace between Ukraine and Russia that we're not Ukraine's ally, but that we're like in the middle as the United States. But really, he's sort of tipping the scales in Russia's favor. Ronda, what does this mean for NATO allies, for European nations? I mean, you were talking about this reassessment that so many world leaders are having to do right now.
Yeah, it's a real time assessment that they're doing right now. And we've seen that since Friday. I don't know if we have a clear enough picture to know where this is going, how NATO will react if, you know, if we continue to pull back from Ukraine in other ways, in addition to what James just mentioned. I think this is almost like a day by day seeing what the Trump administration is going to do. I will say one thing that stood out to me this week when it was announced that we would or the U.S. would hold intelligence back from Ukraine. John Ratcliffe, who is the director of the CIA, was in an interview and he said, well, this is just going to be a pause. I think we're doing this now, but it'll be a pause. He seemed to want to reassure people.
that this would not be forever. But that also signals to me that even folks inside the administration feel the need to put people at ease about some of these steps that Trump is making. So, you know, I don't know where this goes, but I think everyone, whether it is in the administration, whether it is globally, they're trying to assess who is the United States right now when it comes to global affairs. is the United States isolating itself and really, you know, making good of the idea of America first. I think we're all trying to figure out where this goes. When you talk about Ratcliffe coming out and saying that, it kind of reminded me of the Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, kind of getting out a little bit ahead of Trump's announcement about tariffs, you know, on TV this week, doing interviews on like Fox Business and sort of trying to like calm the markets. And it's almost like we're seeing what we did a little bit last term with the cabinet secretaries or other people trying to sort of lead the horse a little bit. It's just this time it's so much more subtle. They're not on different pages, but it's like they're trying to lead the horse that is the White House to where they...
are concerned it won't go. I mean, the mantra is watch what he does, not what he says. But then he's doing this stuff. So, you know, it's been, I think like there's been all these Trump people who are like trying to reassure business leaders. Like, don't worry, he's talking a big game. And even now, there are people that I talk to who say like, well, this is just a negotiating tactic. Trump is trying to increase his leverage to get Ukraine to come to the table. He's not actually really cutting off intelligence, but he is. Let's listen to how the French president responded to this. Emmanuel Macron, take a listen. I want to believe that the US will stand by our side, but we have to be ready for that not to be the case.
The future of Europe cannot be decided on in Moscow or Washington. So the idea that Europe does not want this to be a negotiation between the U.S. and Russia, which they don't see as necessarily coming to the table from opposite sides, James. I mean, how incredible is this to hear the French president saying this? It's really stunning. And I know so much is coming at us. But when you hear that, the line that stood out to me is when he said, we have to be ready for the case that America will not be there to help. And that is an incredible sea change from...
Donald Trump's predecessors. Like even a couple months ago, I'm pretty sure we could find a Biden speech where he says we are here to help the world or something to that effect. That is usually what U.S. presidents want to project to the world is that the U.S. is leading by helping other countries, having their back. It really is stunning to hear European leaders say we have to be ready for the United States not to have our back. So this gets us to the question of what does Donald Trump actually want America to be on the world stage, but also here at home, James?
is there a method to the seeming madness? And this goes back to, you know, cabinet secretaries telling investors like, well, don't worry. It's not as big a deal as you think. Like he's not, he's going to, he's going to back off. He's not going to be as crazy as he's saying. But there, there is a, there are two things going on. One is there's a real effort to understand, is there actually a strategy, a grand strategy? Does Trump have a theory of the case? And I have talked to people who advise Trump, people who work for Trump inside and outside the administration who will say, yes, the strategy is that Donald Trump wants to.
stop paying attention to Europe. And he wants to do what several presidents now talked about, including Barack Obama and pivot to Asia, that he wants to free up all the US resources, the 100 plus billion dollars, all the weaponry that we've sent, and instead train our focus on China, which is the biggest threat in the 21st century to American interests. Other people inside Trump world say, What Trump really wants is spheres of influence, that he has sort of a neo-imperialist view, and that he believes that Eastern Europe is sort of in Russia's sphere of influence, as it was during the Soviet Union, and that he's largely okay with exceptions of Asia being sort of controlled by China. And he wants the United States to be hegemonic in the Western Hemisphere and in North and South America. And that that is what's behind talking about getting control of Panama, getting control of Greenland, Canada.
Basically, the view there is, look, the United States, it's not 1997 anymore. The United States can't rule the world. We can't afford to underwrite Europe security and Asia security. And that the view inside among certain Trump people, not all Trump people, is a lot of Euroscepticism. A lot of if Macron wants to step up and take care of Ukraine, good for him. Let him do it. And that they sort of see this new what I've heard called an Anglo alliance. So it's not Europe.
It's the UK, the US, we've heard about AUKUS, Australia, New Zealand, but then also, frankly, countries that were under British colonial rule, India, Japan, which has an interest in countering China, but that it's basically like a new alliance and that we're going to have to drop some of the dead weight. But again, my honest view, having talked to lots of people and asked the question, what is... the foreign policy of the United States is that there isn't one. So much goes back to relationships, though, too. Like we talked about how President Trump is saying, like, I have a good relationship with the Mexican president. And he clearly admires and respects Vladimir Putin on a level that really seems like no other world leaders do. And he also seems to admire and respect other strongman leaders around the world. Now, whether he admires them because they're adversaries and opponents or because he thinks he can talk with them is sort of a question mark. Yeah, this is something that came up, too, in his first term, where he had a lot of complimentary things to say about Kim Jong-un. And it does appear that he does like the strongman, whatever that means.
parts of the world. But what is it like? Because he I don't want to say he likes them. He's doing a great job because he may like them as people to go up against and combat with and spar with. But it does leave the question of Putin. That's a guy I can I can have a meeting with and deal with and make sense to me. You know, this other dictatorial ruler like I can talk with that guy. But it does raise the question of how much can they make him feel good? How much can they influence him if he feels like they're.
at a fair negotiating table trying to strike some deals. Yeah, I think that's something we should watch, actually, how he is relating to these other world leaders. I will say most of our allies represent governments that have, you know, established order, much like the United States. And Donald Trump being an outsider of Washington politics, he's also an outsider of global politics. So I think he may sort of understand or prefer or like or be complimentary to those who also are outsiders on the world stage. And that may also be behind behind it, too. But I will say after listening to what James was just laying out there, one of the areas that I think or one of the hints that I think
think we will have in terms of what Donald Trump wants to make of America when it comes to his position in the world stage is his relationship with his secretary of state. I think we've all been watching Marco Rubio's body language, certainly from the Zelensky meeting, also in some of the earlier weeks of the Trump administration, the joint session speech. I think seeing him listen to Donald Trump speak to him and say he's going to be in charge of the Panama deal. And if he messes up, right, good luck, Marco. And we'll blame him if he messes it up. And there was this overcompensation of like, he's doing a great job. He's doing a great job. And I was like, kind of like, that was sitting in my mind more. And then I was like, wait, did he just say that it was going to be Rubio's fault? He did.
We recall he said that, too, about Mike Pence, that if Mike Pence didn't do something, that it would be his fault. Little Marco vibes, right? Remember when we used to call him that? When they ran against each other in the primary. Yeah, but I'm wondering, too, if there is a point where we see Donald Trump wanting Rubio to do something and Rubio saying, OK, no, or trying to backpedal, like I just mentioned about Ratcliffe and you mentioned about the Commerce Secretary. What areas are we going to see any clashes, if there will be any, between Rubio and Trump? And I think that will tell us.
where Trump wants to take the United States in terms of where it's at on the world stage. Such a great point. We cannot end the show without talking about how Trump is reshaping or wants to reshape America through these tariffs and through all of these actions. So let's listen to President Trump at the Joint Address on Tuesday night talking about tariffs. And I want us all to listen for this question of like pain and adjustment, because that's something that hasn't been talked about much prior to this. Our new trade policy will also be great for the American farmer. I love the farmer. It may be a little bit of an adjustment period.
We had that before when I made the deal with China, $50 billion of purchases. And I said, just bear with me. And they did. They did probably have to bear with me again. What is what is that saying, Rhonda? What is he saying and not saying? It was a notable line to me when I listened to it and we were covering it here because, one, we know Trump does not ever want to project weakness. So to say, just bear with me, there'll be some pain saying as if this decision may not be a very strong one right now. But, you know, bear with me. I think that was very telling. I think it's also pointed to the fact that he probably is aware that tariffs, they aren't popular, especially when you have you go into a trade war where Americans know their prices on certain things will be going up. And I actually looked into it with the Yale Budget Lab, which is nonpartisan. And they look at how policy, you know.
boils down to the American household. And these tariffs, I thought there was some interesting points that they made. These tariffs will be the equivalent of a seven percentage point hike in the U.S. tariff rate, which is the highest it's been since 1943. So these are unprecedented moves. Also, the price level rises with these tariffs in Mexico and Canada. They will raise about 1% to 1.2%. That is the equivalent per household annually of a loss of $1,600 to $2,000 this year. So that's a lot of money for households annually to lose. And what are we talking about? The price is going to go up of?
Mainly electronics and clothing. Also food. We do get a lot of produce in the United States from Mexico and Canada. Also cars. That will be going up, which explains why the big three automakers had that emergency meeting saying, this is not going to work for us. There was an estimate that the average price of a car would go up $10,000.
Yeah. Lumber is another big one. Like Canadian lumber is huge for like new construction, housing. I want to build a deck this year. And it's sort of like, I don't have the permit for it, but it's going to cost a lot more. And this is the season where people are doing, you know, home improved. So even the small things that you buy at your Walmarts, your targets, those things are going to go up. We know that some businesses have said, we are going to put this off on the consumer. We're not going to absorb the higher costs. So this does mean that eventually some people may find these tariffs very unpopular. Everybody is already, you know, kind of at unease about it right now. But when you really are seeing this.
total up to the $1,600 to $2,000 that it'll cause annually for households experiencing the weight of these tariffs. That's pretty considerable. Right now, as we tape at two o'clock, the tariffs are still in place on Canada. Tariffs are still in place on China. The ones in Mexico are on pause for a month, but we'll see where this all goes. Rhonda James, thank you so much. We will be back with Sidebar on Tuesday of next week, and we're watching really closely as we get...
As we approach, Rhonda, this budget deadline for Congress to hit on March 14th, so much of what we'll all be focused on next week, especially you, Rhonda, will be this question of, can Congress come to agreement on some spending bills? It'll be a huge focus, and I'm sure we'll be talking about it. Listen for Sidebar on your favorite podcast app or find us on YouTube. Just look for The Washington Post. We'll talk to you on Tuesday.
When it comes to the big questions, who you ask matters. From breaking news to politics that impact your life, to advice you can trust. Get answers you don't have to question with Ask the Post AI. Trained exclusively on post journalism with clear sourcing. And if we don't know the answer, we'll tell you. Ask the Post AI. Find it on WashingtonPost.com or in the app.