UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Oil prices—past, present, and futures'

Crude oil futures reached pre-war levels, anticipating future oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Current oil flows are only a fraction of pre-war levels, and oil refineries refine actual oil, not hypothetical future oil. Consumer (refined) gasoline prices in the US remain around a third higher than pre-war prices (in the UK, petrol prices are around 10% higher, reflecting different tax structures). Prices should fall over time, but the potential political cost has provoked the ire of US President Trump.