UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The bias to optimism reasserts itself'

Iran confirmed progress in talks with the US, lending credibility to US President Trump’s weekend social media posts. A deal still seems some way off, but progress is enough to fuel markets’ inherent bias to optimism and oil prices have fallen. Reopening Hormuz would not return oil prices to pre-war levels. However, the impact of any Iranian tariff on tankers using the strait (probably around USD 2 million per shipment) would be an economic rounding error for global inflation.