″🟩 US and Iran resumed fighting before renewing ceasefire, Crimea declared state of emergency, access to new OpenAI model restricted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

& Federal Reserve Independence & a deadly fungus. Executive summary Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasefire. Russian-occupied Crimea declared an emergency following supply shortages and power cuts resulting from Ukrainian attacks. Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 43% (30% to 62%) chance. What about on October 15, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 71% (60% to 80%) chance. Will Ukraine control all of Crimea by the end of 2026? Our forecasters give this a 14% (3% to 75%) probability. Will Putin still be the President of the Russian Federation on July 1, 2027? We think there's a 87% (65% to 94%) chance. Will more than 5,000 Pakistani law enforcement, other security personnel and troops be killed in 2026 within Pakistan? Our forecasters think there's a 3.4% (0.1% to 15%) probability. Technology and AI: Alex Bores, who co-authored one of the world's few pieces of legislation that attempts to mitigate catastrophic risks [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(02:55) Geopolitics(02:58) Middle East(04:46) Europe(06:11) United States(08:08) Asia(08:55) Africa(09:11) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:22) Biorisk(14:28) Nature and climate --- First published: June 29th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-iran-resumed-fighting-before --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.