″🟡 US and Israel strike Iran, Iran retaliates against US allies, Anthropic designated a supply chain risk || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #9/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated by striking US bases and allied countries in the region. Also, an arms sale to Taiwan has been paused by the US to ensure that Trump's April visit to Beijing goes smoothly. Will Iran's regime fall by the end of 2026? Forecasters assign a 45% (32% to 70%) probability thereof. Will there be >50 US fatalities (civilian or uniformed) anywhere in the world linked to the conflict in Iran or attributed to Iran or its proxies by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (35% to 60%) chance. Will there be >100 Israeli fatalities (civilian or uniformed) linked to the conflict in Iran by the end of 2026? The team believes there's a 58% (45% to 70%) probability. Will Israel's airspace reopen before April 2026? With Israeli authorities saying they may very gradually reopen their airspace over the next week, most forecasters are now at >95% here. Will the Houthis seize or sink at least one ship before May 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 42% (20% to 68%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic was designated a [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(03:02) Geopolitics(03:05) Middle East(07:35) Asia(08:11) Latin America(08:31) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: March 2nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-israel-strike-iran-iran-retaliates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.