US/Israel Talk Peace, but send Missiles

Tuesday’s session was defined by a single question: is Trump negotiating or escalating? His claim that Iran gave a “present” tied to Hormuz flows briefly ignited risk appetite, but the simultaneous Pentagon deployment of 2,000 82nd Airborne troops told a different story. The S&P 500 ended down just 0.4% — a small loss that understates the intraday violence. Oil bounced 4.3% as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, wiping out just a fraction of Monday’s 11% collapse. Complicating the picture further, the $1.8 trillion private credit market is showing cracks: Apollo and Ares have both gated redemptions after investors demanded back more than 11% of fund assets in a single quarter. For the ASX, SPI futures are pointing up a modest 0.14% — and February CPI prints today at 11:30am AEDT.Key Takeaways01S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,556, paring a drop of nearly 1% — Nasdaq 100 -0.8%, Dow -0.2% — as mixed war signals kept buyers cautious.02Trump claimed Iran gave a “present” tied to Hormuz energy flows, but the Pentagon ordered 2,000 82nd Airborne troops to the region — sending contradictory signals to markets.03WTI crude bounced 4.3% to $91.91 and Brent settled above $104 — a partial recovery from Monday’s 9.7% and 11% collapses — as the Strait remained closed and Iran began charging transit fees.04Apollo and Ares have both gated private credit fund redemptions at 5% after investors requested more than 11% — a second systemic risk layer beyond the Middle East conflict.05Barclays raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,650 despite “more fragile” macro; Macquarie’s Wizman warned hawkish central bank responses to supply-side inflation cause “much more financial stress.”06ASX 200 SPI futures +0.14% at 8,398 — a muted open compared to yesterday’s surge — with February CPI the key domestic event today at 11:30am AEDT.