″🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026″ by Nuño Sempere

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends. Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance. Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecasters believe there's a 41% (10% to 63%) probability. Will enough US states join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for it to reach 270 Electoral College votes by November 7, 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 12.5% (10% to 20%) chance. If so, and conditional on the Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality, will the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Compact? Our forecasters believe there's a 35% (10% to 57%) probability. If the Compact gets to the 270 threshold and stands before November 7, 2028, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? Our forecasters provide a 2% (0.5% to 7%) estimate. If it does not, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? [...] ---Outline:(00:17) Executive summary(03:50) Geopolitics(03:53) Middle East(06:34) The Americas(06:37) The United States(08:55) The Rest of the Americas(09:33) Asia(10:08) Africa(10:23) Economy(12:01) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: April 20th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.