″🟡 US to blockade Iranian ports, Iran peace talks end without agreement, Anthropic Mythos released to tech and cyber firms || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place. What is the chance that the US will still be conducting a naval blockade of Iran on June 1 2026? Forecasters think there's a 28% (15% to 55%) chance. What is the chance that the IRGC will attack a US Navy vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf before June 1 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 50% (40% to 60%) probability. What is the chance that Trump will no longer be in office (permanently) before December 2026? Forecasters think there's a 6.7% (4% to 16%) chance. Will Israel conduct fewer than 30 airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon during the month of June? Forecasters assign a 65% (45% to 80%) probability to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic announced that it has developed a new model, Claude Mythos, but it considers the model to be sufficiently dangerous that it has limited access to the model to large tech and [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:45) Geopolitics (02:48) Middle East (06:18) Europe (07:45) The Americas (07:48) The United States (09:42) The Rest of the Americas (10:01) Asia (10:14) Economy (11:17) Technology and artificial intelligence (13:54) Nature and climate --- First published: April 13th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-to-blockade-iranian-ports-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.