Vishay (VSH) Q2 2026 Earnings: Beat By 31%, Stock Fell 10.6%

Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. (VSH) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended July 4, 2026): GAAP revenue $888.6M, +16.6% y/y. Diluted EPS $0.19 vs a $0.1452 bar - a 30.9% BEAT, and adjusted EPS equals GAAP EPS exactly. Operating margin 6.0% from 2.9%. The 8-K was accepted 7:30am ET Aug 5 (BMO), so Aug 5 IS the reaction: $38.85 to $33.18, DOWN 10.61%. Aug 7 recovered to $35.41. Vishay beat by 31% against a bar that had been RAISED fourteen-fold, guided higher, and printed a 1.32 book-to-bill - and the stock fell 10.6%. Its own 10-Q explains it: 81.6% of the quarter's capital budget went into MOSFETs, the one segment earning a 1.4% operating margin and the only one whose book-to-bill FELL. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE BEAT IS REAL; THE CAPITAL BUDGET IS THE RISK) — base-case value ~$34.00 vs ~$35.41 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $34 vs the $35.41 close Fri Aug 7 (-4.0%). Owner-earnings DCF: 2027 revenue $4.28B at a 10.5% operating margin, +$250M depreciation, -$370M capex, -$55M working capital = $130M free cash flow, rising to $399M by 2031. At 9.5% WACC / 2.5% terminal, EV $4.97B + net cash over 161M diluted = $32.81. 18x 2027 EPS = $34. Bear $18 / bull $56. - THE PRINT: GAAP revenue $888.575M (+16.6%); adjusted $918.583M. EPS $0.19 vs $0.1452 = +30.9%. BASIS PROVEN: adjusted net earnings $28.124M EQUALS GAAP $28.124M (the tariff items cancel). Operating income $53.526M, 6.0% vs 2.9%. Tax 33.7%. Q3 guide $945-975M at 24.0%. - CUT-BAR TEST FAILED IN VISHAY'S FAVOUR: the $0.1452 bar was ~14x the year-ago GAAP EPS of $0.01, and year-ago ADJUSTED was a LOSS of $(0.07) - RAISED, then cleared. Not non-operating (other income -$0.794M), not acquired (+17.5% volume). GAAP gross margin 23.3% is flattered ~70bp by $30.0M of tariff refunds; like-for-like 22.6%. - THE ANGLE - CAPITAL ALLOCATION. Q2 capex $95.201M: MOSFETs $77.696M (81.6%), Diodes $4.835M, Capacitors $4.791M, Resistors $4.052M, Inductors $1.977M, Optoelectronics $0.787M. Six months $172.378M of $205.862M = 83.7%. MOSFET capex is 5.2x its own $14.926M depreciation. - SEGMENT MARGINS / ORDERS. Q2 segment operating margins: Inductors 27.1%, Capacitors 21.4%, Diodes 19.6%, Resistors 17.1%, Optoelectronics 13.6%, MOSFETs 1.4%. Book-to-bill: Resistors 1.26 to 1.43, Inductors 1.31 to 1.42 - and MOSFETs 1.57 to 1.08, the only one to FALL. - CASH AND SHARE COUNT. Q2 free cash $10.313M on $888.6M revenue (1.2%); six months NEGATIVE $36.613M. 2026 capex guided $400-440M, about half into the Itzehoe 12-inch fab. The 70%-of-free-cash policy means ZERO buybacks in 2026. 141,282,019 common + 12,097,148 Class B = 153,379,167 shares, so the true cap at $35.41 is $5.431B, not the $5.00B on screens. Net cash $314.6M, EV $5.12B. Vishay sold 17,250,000 shares at $50.00 on 29 Jun (12.7% dilution). - WALL STREET: 4 buy / 4 hold / 2 sell; consensus target $42.50. CAVEAT: both live targets are initiations dated Aug 4 2026, the day BEFORE the print, unrevised for the 10.6% drop; a Stifel $25 from Sept 2024 was rejected as stale. We are 20% BELOW the Street while forecasting MORE earnings: 2027 EPS $1.89 vs $1.71. What to watch: UP: +16.6% revenue on +17.5% volume, operating margin 2.9% to 6.0%, book-to-bill 1.32, backlog 6.1 months (+60% y/y), Q3 guided $945-975M, $315M net cash. DOWN: 81.6% of capex into the 1.4%-margin segment at 5.2x its depreciation, book-to-bill 1.57 to 1.08, free cash $10.3M, 12.7% dilution at $50.00. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.