Wait, Aren't Bonds a Safe Haven? And What About the new Fed Chair? feat. Thomas Urano

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Thomas Urano, Co-CIO of SAGE Advisory. Recorded 4/14/26.Thomas shares his fixed-income expertise to help us make sense of the bond market's wild ride in early 2026. We dig into how the conflict in the Middle East has shifted the driver of bond yields from macroeconomic data to oil and inflation, what a new Fed Chair means for the future of quantitative easing and rate cuts, and why the Core CPI is actually a better gauge for monetary policy than headline numbers. We also redefine the true role of bonds as a portfolio diversifier and explore where investors should look across the yield curve—from the 0-5 year maturity range to credit risk and mortgage securities—to find stability and yield today.📈 Topics Covered• How the Middle East conflict shifted the bond market's focus strictly to oil and inflation• Why the market priced out 2026 rate cuts and how to think about the 3% neutral rate (R-star)• The critical difference between Headline and Core CPI, and why the Fed focuses on the latter• Why the unreliability of initial economic data prints requires a broader "mosaic" approach to analysis• The impact of incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and a potential shift toward a more traditionalist monetary policy• Redefining bonds as a diversifier: relying on low return volatility rather than strict negative correlation to equities• Where to allocate in fixed income right now: the 0-5 year maturity range, investment-grade credit risk, and mortgage bonds🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehaviorThe content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.