War on Autopilot: Iran’s Clausewitzian Trap (+ Iran's New "More Radical, Less Capable" Leader)

Alex unpacks why Carl von Clausewitz’s warnings about the unpredictable pull of war feel especially urgent as the United States edges closer to conflict with Iran. With the new Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei recently announced as Iran’s supreme leader, political shifts in Tehran may inject more radical elements into the mix, potentially deepening the trap. Alex explores Clausewitz’s paradoxical trinity—the interplay of people, military, and government—and how this complex system makes escalation nonlinear: small strikes, public sentiment, and political decisions can cascade into outcomes no leader intends. From fog and friction on the battlefield to the challenge of identifying Iran’s center of gravity, Alex will show why policy alone struggles to control a system that can quickly take on a life of its own.