Weak Labor, Wait-and-See Inflation (E243)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and cross-asset Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Dec. 8-12 week, notable for stocks (0:34) erasing the week’s gains after Thursday’s all-time high on the S&P 500. Heavy selling in tech names drove the downside with financials, materials and industrials nonetheless diverging higher. In fixed income (2:03), the Treasury curve steepened as longer yields moved higher, shorter yields lower, in the wake of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s news conference. Broad commodities (3:10) fell, with crude oil posting the biggest losses. Precious metals continued to rally with silver continuing to gain momentum. For the week’s macro stories (5:45), Mark Kimbrough covers small business optimism, JOLTS, employment-cost and unemployment-claims stories. Then he and Jeff Mayberry turn their attention (11:14) to the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting, its quarter-point fed funds cut and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference amid growing if still-minority policy dissents, signs of weakening labor and a murky outlook on inflation. Looking to the week ahead (20:49), Jeff and Mark will be on the lookout for payroll and unemployment reports, retail sales,  S&P Global manufacturing and services reports (Tuesday); and jobless claims and November CPI (Thursday).