Week 23 Opens

Monday, June 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened week $88.50-$89.44, up from Friday's close. Day's range: Low $88.45-$89.17, High $91.25-$94.74. Intraday volatility, prices rising toward $90-$94 range. SETUP: Crude consolidating after May pullback. Geopolitical risk premium still elevated. But negotiations breaking down. Iran halted negotiations with US on June 1, vowed to completely block Strait of Hormuz, citing ceasefire violations and other issues. Major development: If Iran closes Strait, crude spikes to $100+ immediately. KEY LEVELS: Support $88, Resistance $92, above that $95-$100. SETUP: If Iran closes Strait, expect break above $95, target $100-$110. If negotiations resume and deal signed, expect break below $88, target $80-$85. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot $3.10 on May 26 (up 6.16% from prior day's $2.92). June 2026 futures settled ~$3.04, nearby months ranging $3.08-$3.94. Markets Insider showing natural gas $3.18 on June 1 (down 3.34% that session). SETUP: Gas volatile, following crude higher on geopolitical risk, but fundamentals remain soft, storage ample, production high. KEY LEVELS: Support $2.85, Resistance $3.20, above that $3.50. SETUP: If crude spikes on Strait closure, expect gas to spike to $3.50+. If negotiations resume, expect gas to fade back to $2.85-$3.00. GEOPOLITICS: Iran halted negotiations with US on June 1. Earlier in week, Reuters reported US and Iran reached agreement to extend ceasefire by 60 days and lift shipping restrictions through Strait. PBS reported US and Iranian negotiators reached tentative deal to extend ceasefire by 60 days, start new nuclear talks, address Strait. But by June 1, Iran halted talks, vowed to completely block Strait, citing ceasefire violations. Washington Post reported US and Iran trading new strikes (US targeted sites near Hormuz, Iran retaliated). Trump said deal will work out well, but priorities include reopening Hormuz and nuclear limits. BOTTOM LINE: Crude at critical juncture. If Iran closes Strait, looking at $100-$110 crude. If negotiations resume and deal signed, looking at $80-$85 crude. Gas will follow crude higher or lower. Capital preservation first. Watch the Strait. Trade the data.