Weekly Recap: Week 7 Complete

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 13, 2026 — Weekly Recap: Week 7. WEEK 7 COMPLETE. Seven weeks. Every call confirmed. The decoupling thesis holds. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened with WTI pulling back from $65. We called $63-64 resistance. It held. Tuesday technicals showed range-bound trading in a symmetrical triangle. $61-$65 range locked. Wednesday WTI rallied to $64.36 on Iran tensions. We said short the rally. Geopolitical premiums fade. Thursday the reality check. WTI hit $65.13 but EIA dropped a bomb: 8.53 million barrel BUILD. Market expected a 200K draw. Massive miss. Oversupply confirmed. THE THESIS: $65 is the ceiling. EIA forecasts $52 average. Current price 25% premium. Mean reversion coming. Short rallies. Target $52. NATURAL GAS RECAP: Monday gas crashed to $3.21. We called it accumulation territory. Tuesday showed extreme oversold. RSI 29. Stochastic 21. Williams %R at -94. Wednesday bounced to $3.13 off oversold. EIA raised 2026 forecast to $4.30. Thursday storage report confirmed: 360 Bcf withdrawal last week was largest ever. Storage 27 Bcf below 5-year average. Ending March below 1.9 Tcf. THE THESIS: Accumulate $3.00-$3.25. Target $4.50+. WEEK 8 PREVIEW: Watch EIA weekly data. Iran developments. OPEC+ compliance. Weather models for late February. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]