What do the January Jobs Report, January NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, and January Monthly Treasury Budget Statement signal about the health of the US economy?

Darius unpacks what the January Jobs Report, NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, and Treasury Budget data reveal about the health of the U.S. economy. He argues the economy is emerging from its U-shaped slowdown, even as a jobless recovery dynamic gains traction amid AI diffusion and persistent fiscal crowding out. We also reinforce why systematic risk management remains central to navigating this increasingly K-shaped cycle.