What 'El Chapo' and Noriega Teach Us About Maduro’s Fate

History is repeating itself. 36 years to the day after Manuel Noriega’s capture, Nicolás Maduro faces the same legal fate. But having covered the trials of El Chapo and Juan Orlando Hernández from inside the courtroom, I argue that the legal victory is the easy part. The real danger is the power vacuum left behind.In this episode, I break down the specific legal trap the SDNY has set for Maduro, why "Head of State" immunity won't save him, and why the fragmentation of the Cartel of the Suns could lead to more violence, not less.In this episode, we cover:The Coincidence: Why the January 3rd date matters (Noriega vs. Maduro).The Legal Trap: How United States v. Noriega killed the "Head of State" defense.Inside the Courtroom: What I saw during the El Chapo and JOH trials that predicts Maduro's future.The Vacuum: Why removing a "Kingpin" often leads to a violent scramble for control (The Panama Lesson).Prediction: What happens to figures like Diosdado Cabello now?Mentioned in this Episode:Article: My reporting from inside the "Trial of the Century."Article: How the US prosecutes a Head of State.Historical Reference: The 1989 Invasion of Panama and the fall of Noriega.Quote of the Week:"Justice for the Kingpin does not always mean peace for the Kingdom."Connect & Support:Subscribe to the newsletter for deep dives: https://atlanticlens.substack.com/subscribeFollow me on X: https://x.com/MartaDhanis Get full access to Atlantic Lens by Marta Dhanis at atlanticlens.substack.com/subscribe