What is the US Yield Curve Really Telling Us?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Fed 25th, 2026: What is the US Yield Curve Really Telling Us?“When there is a lack of honour in government, the morals of the whole people are poisoned.”Does the steepness of the US yield curve tell us the US Economy is about to boom, or inflation is about to sink the Treasury markets? To figure out which, you need to interrogate the witnesses and look at what the evidence is telling us.My ambition is to keep learning new stuff. Like this morning’s quote – from Herbert Hoover.One of the things I enjoy most is sharing my experience of how markets work in practice. Aside from my careless Desmond (a Tutu) in Economics, my only qualifications to do so are gleaned from surviving 40 years in financial markets. My great delight is my honorary professorship at the Edinburgh Business School (which I suspect was because they felt I deserved a B+ for effort), but I have few academic chops as a great thinker or as a theoretical economist.However, I do think markets, economics, and politics make a curious kind of sense, and if you dig deep enough…. it’s even possible to explain them and figure them out!Yesterday I had the great pleasure to give a guest lecture on the bond markets to a classroom of American PhD Students at Brown University in New England (via Zoom). They are taking a class on the International Political Economy of Global Finance. It’s a fascinating course, run by my great chum, fellow-Scot, and genuine academic thinker, Professor Mark Blyth.Mark is a guy who takes a deep interest in how complex things work. He picks them apart and asks difficult questions like why? He’s now applying that intellectual curiosity to take students deep into the foundations, architecture and plumbing of international finance. I’ve looked at the syllabus and if I had the time, I’d take the course myself – because it’s good to see ourselves as other see us, and wonder if there are better ways to think about the world, and how to action it.The fact I got asked a lash of questions following my lecture was an added bonus.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!