What Matters? Energy Security and Defence

Blain’s Morning Porridge 18th March 2026: What Matters? Energy Security and Defence“Sometimes it is necessary to lose a battle to win a war”The last two weeks have been fascinating. Iran increasingly looks a strategic blunder by Trump in the wider global hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. It increases the likelihood of instability, trade and economic disruption and the threat of kinetic conflict. Boy Scout time: Be Prepared.Apologies for the lack of Morning Porridge y’day and the slightly late comment today. Service will be slow in coming days – I’ve been floored by Man-Flu – the single most destructive force in the Universe. If I could spend the day sleeping it off I would… but the coughing, sneezing and sinusitis keeps me awake. I am turning into a Sleep Zombie, unable to snooze but glued to my screens watching the globe in turmoil…. Or something like that. (I’m wondering how I’ll cope this weekend – the last long ski weekend of the season!)At times like this remember Blain’s Market Mantra No 2 – “Things are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope.”Strip out the noise. Take a close look at what’s broken and figure out how the shards of the splintered markets will come back together again – they always do. At the macro level, we’re experiencing another energy shock. It means readjustment, recalibration, pain and tribulation, and markets finding new levels. Inflation looks to be nailed on – with massive implications for bond markets, and therefore relative pricing across all risk assets. New supply chain instabilities are inevitable as the world adjusts.Periods like this are rife with opportunities for traders and nations brave enough to take them. But the current self-inflicted global instability is happening right when leading global long-term chartists predicted it would – and I suggest you check out my chum David Murrin’s writings. He has called it perfectly thus far, predicting how today’s tensions would coincide with the 2K (120 year) cycle of hegemonic change – a period rife with conflict threats as China challenges the USA for global leadership. This is the new reality – global hegemonic change and how that plays out.My read on how the future develops is simple – two things will be critical in the coming decade: Energy Security and Effective Defence.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!