What the 2-Year Yield Tells You About Rate Cuts Now

The 2-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.08 percent as of early June 2026, and it's sending a very specific signal about when the Fed might actually cut rates. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the short end of the curve matters more than the 10-year for rate-cut timing, how the 2-year yield has moved in lockstep with Fed fund futures, and what the current 42-basis-point spread between the 10-year and 2-year says about market expectations. They also explain the mechanics — why a falling 2-year yield often precedes the first rate cut, and why the current level suggests the market is pricing in one cut later this year, but not a full easing cycle. No jargon, no fluff. Just the bond market signal that matters most right now. #2YearTreasury #RateCuts #FederalReserve #BondMarket #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #FixedIncome #Investing #Economics #Finance #FOMC #FedFundsRate #ShortEnd #MarketExpectations #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo