Wheat Market Outlook - April 20, 2026

Market Outlook – Wheat Markets are hyper focused on the U.S. winter wheat crop as the only real problematic region in the world.  Russia, Ukraine and European Union crops all look as expected and are growing without major market concern. Many of these regions will be putting out a smaller crop than last year but that has been anticipated for several months now, partly in anticipation to come off of last year's large yields in many areas. We will begin to see more official reports on 2026/27 production estimates as the European Union and many of the northern hemisphere crops begin to come closer to their harvest season in June and July. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the MayUSDA report. U.S. weather is the focus right now as some major dryness in the HRW wheat belt, lack of rain and a touch of frost in western parts of the region on the weekend. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota here in the coming weeks. The crop was 6 per cent planted as of last week and should be over the double digit point this week. Canadian crop planting is just set to begin once the weather turns warmer. Many regions are still a little wet and cold. Expect Canadian planting to become more prominent May 1, 2026 onward this year, although a few northern wheat production regions are sitting with some lingering snow cover yet. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.Market Outlook – DurumPrice outlook looks flat for the time being. Algeria's tender of durum wheat will provide a bit of support for producers to clean up old crop inventories ahead of planting, but no major rally is being anticipated as ample carryouts and a good prospect for the North African / Mediterranean crop. North African crop for durum still appears quite promising. Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Lower durum acreage anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North Africancrop comes off.