Wheat Market Outlook

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets are trying to calculate the outcome from the Kansas wheat tour this week. Oklahoma’s crop tour showed just how bad the drought there did affect the crop. We will get the USDA’s first crack at production but also demand side of the trade in tomorrow’s report. Expect the market to watch this one as it is one of the more watched USDA reports of the year. Canadian crop progress is being watched as well. Spring wheat planting would be considered behind pace as of right now. A large part of northern Canadian growing region is behind pace compared to recent years, not a major market concern yet but if the forecast does not provide some warm weather, could become more of a topic for markets. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price opportunities to the upside of durum are limited for the short term. The North African crop looks great and North American crop story has yet to be told. The Turkish crop is expected to be larger this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets are watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses and crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly. The Canadian durum region is not the region that is behind in planting progress, and these acres are currently being planted.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Markets trying to decipher where the fine line is between where the crops will benefit from the forecasted rainfall in western Kansas and eastern Colorado this week. The markets did not do an abrupt selloff on theforecasted precipitation, which points to markets sitting with a “show me” attitude on the upcoming rains. This region is the markets focus on wheat, but we are starting to see a few more reports out of Euro region and eastern Europe. Some colder weather there has slowed spring crop planting in Russia and some dryness starting to build in Poland and into Ukraine, but markets focus is not here quite yet and will see if it does transition into a hot topic item or not. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the May USDA reportnext week. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota and the Canadian crop. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUMPrice opportunities to the upside of durum appear limited for the short term. North African crop looks great, North American crop story has yet to be told. Turkish crop is expected to be a larger crop this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly. Canadian planting will be taking place over the next 10 to 14 days.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

Market Outlook – Wheat Markets sit at two-year highs on the spring wheat chart in Minneapolis. The weather risk has baked itself into the current wheat market values with growing concern of how much tonnage will come from the U.S. HRW wheat region. Thisregion is the markets focus, but we are starting to see a few more reports out of the Euro region and eastern Europe. Some colder weather there has slowed spring crop planting. Also reports of some dryness starting to build in Poland and into Ukraine, but the market’s focus is not quite there yet, and it remains to be seen if this transitions into a hot topic item or not. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the May USDA report. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota and the soon-to-be planted Canadian crop. Planting is set to begin once weather turns warmer as many regions are still a little wet and cold. Expect Canadian planting to become more prominent May 1, 2026 onward this year, although a few northern wheat production regions are sittingwith some lingering snow cover yet. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.Market Outlook – DurumPrice outlook looks flat for the time being. The North African crop looks great and the North American crop story has yet to be told. Algeria’s tender of durum wheat will provide a bit of support for producers to clean up old crop inventories ahead of planting, but no major rally is being anticipated as there is ample carry out and a good prospect for the North African / Mediterranean crop. The Turkish crop is expected to be larger this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets are watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow, as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly.

Market Outlook – Wheat Markets are hyper focused on the U.S. winter wheat crop as the only real problematic region in the world.  Russia, Ukraine and European Union crops all look as expected and are growing without major market concern. Many of these regions will be putting out a smaller crop than last year but that has been anticipated for several months now, partly in anticipation to come off of last year's large yields in many areas. We will begin to see more official reports on 2026/27 production estimates as the European Union and many of the northern hemisphere crops begin to come closer to their harvest season in June and July. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the MayUSDA report. U.S. weather is the focus right now as some major dryness in the HRW wheat belt, lack of rain and a touch of frost in western parts of the region on the weekend. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota here in the coming weeks. The crop was 6 per cent planted as of last week and should be over the double digit point this week. Canadian crop planting is just set to begin once the weather turns warmer. Many regions are still a little wet and cold. Expect Canadian planting to become more prominent May 1, 2026 onward this year, although a few northern wheat production regions are sitting with some lingering snow cover yet. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.Market Outlook – DurumPrice outlook looks flat for the time being. Algeria's tender of durum wheat will provide a bit of support for producers to clean up old crop inventories ahead of planting, but no major rally is being anticipated as ample carryouts and a good prospect for the North African / Mediterranean crop. North African crop for durum still appears quite promising. Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Lower durum acreage anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North Africancrop comes off.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATAs of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Ukraine’s southern region and Poland are faring on the drier side, although the market is not focusing quite on major production losses there yet, but will be monitoring. Canadian crop planting is just beginning but still two weeks away from when major progress is expected across the Prairies. Producers could be moving some grain as we play with crop marketing year highs. Producers should be cognisant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. Outside of the U.S., weather issues for wheat look limited although that sentiment can shift anytime.   MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook looks flat for durum for the time being. The North African crop for durum still appears quite promising and Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest, which could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Algeria is anticipated to tender for 50,000 tonnes of durum this week and durum markets will be watching closely to see how the tender comes in. Lower durum acreage is anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets are watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global export.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Better rainfall for parts of the U.S. winter wheat production region is in the forecast for Oklahoma and Kansas. As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Ukraine’s southern region and Poland faring on the drier side. Canadian crop planting season still 3 weeks away from being planted in major fashion. Canadian wheat remains competitive for export into global markets but much of the business was done earlier and export pace relative to last year has been slipping. We are around 4 per cent ahead of last year's export pace vs 15 per cent earlier on in the crop marketing year. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year. Producers can be moving some grain as we play with crop marketing year highs and should be cognizant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. We will be in a full weather market for wheat beginning in about 1 months' time as Canadian planting will be underway and European and Black Sea and U.S. winter crops will be in moisture dependent stages.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Some better exports recently have been noted. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops anticipated to be in good shape and higher output once it becomes harvest time could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. Watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and important to be watching the agroclimatic from here on out but as of right now, things look quite favorable in the North African region, and the crops will begin harvest in 1 month. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the world's largest exporterdoes have a major influence on the market. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Expect more consistent weather updates as the crop conditions reports will begin to be released from major wheat production / exporting nations: Russia, Ukraine, European Union, Canada and the United States. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more going forward for the growing regions of Northern Hemisphere crops. As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Canadian wheat remains competitive for export into global markets but much of the business was done earlier and export pace relative to last year has been slipping. We are around 6 per cent ahead of last years export pace vs 15 per cent earlier on in the crop marketing year. Canola and other crops are taking up more export volume and capacity in recent weeks at the expense of wheat as exporters move more of the other crops through the system. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year. Producers could be moving some grain at cropmarketing year highs with the recent uptick in values and should be cognisant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUMPrice outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops are anticipated to be in good shape with higher output once it becomes harvest time could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. Watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and important to be watching the agroclimatic from here on out but as of right now, things look quite favorable in the North African region. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the worlds largest exporter and always does have a major influence on the market. Dryness in southern production regions of Saskatchewan will be the region markets are watching as we enter later April and into May.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEATDomestic bids to Saskatchewan producers pulled back slightly from last week's peaks. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. Wheat markets have an interesting few weeks ahead of them as the Gulf region conflict persists and we will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Northern Hemisphere crops are believed to have escaped some of the worst of the winterkill with good reports out of Germany and France. U.S. winterkill is not seen as massive, but now the precipitation and dryness scenario will be watched. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and exports are still tracking on pace for a record season although the pace is beginning to slip as larger exports were done early. We are anticipating some weather-related volatility as the North American growing season is set to begin shortly. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUMPrice outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much ofthe marketing year for western Canadian producers. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops are anticipated to be in good shape, and once harvest time comes, higher output could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. We are watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and it is important to be watching the agroclimate from here on out. As of right now, things look favourable in the North African region. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once it is time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the world's largest exporter always does have a major influence on the market in general.

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Futures take a setback on Monday morning after having had a strong showing this past week. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. This past trading week, Canadian wheat domestic price targets have been triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September and $8 became obtainable in a few scenarios. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Northern hemisphere crops are believed to have escaped some of the worst of the winterkill with good reports out of Germany and France with some heavier numbers being reported from Ukraine. U.S. winterkill is not massive but now the precipitation and dryness scenario will be watched. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and exports still tracking on pace for a record season.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Tunisia tendered for a 50,000-tonne allotment of durum this past week and has brought some fresh demand into the marketplace. Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, allreports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall and the crop prospect sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. Market will also turn attention to Canadianprairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Iranian conflict shaking up markets all around including energies and agriculture. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. The region is a large net importer of wheat, and markets might look to see if there will be any potential stockpiling or shifting of demand into the region. Canadian wheat domestic price targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain to remain competitive going forwards.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African, Mediterranean and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received good winter rainfall, and the crop prospect is positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the prairies. Canadian wheat domestic price targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short positions. Some weather scares and repositioning by traders as the wheat crop ending stocks and forecasts do not look as burdensome as they once did just a month ago. The market is entering an interesting time here shortly as it will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state by state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that is when we will know best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitivegoing forwards.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUMThe overall price outlook for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall, and the crop prospects are sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATWheat futures have had a strong showing this past week and has translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Canadian wheat domestic prices are up $8 to $10 CDN per tonne week-over-week for posted bids and targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short positions. Some weather scares and repositioning by traders as the wheat crop ending stocks and forecasts do not look as burdensome as they once did just a month ago. The market is entering an interesting time here shortly as it will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates are provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that’s when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitive as U.S. export values have dropped recently. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMThe price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum, plus how the North African and Mediterranean and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall, and the crop prospect is sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATBids to Canadian prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that’s when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheat values, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown but are well understood. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitive as U.S. export values have dropped recently. Anticipating sideways markets for the near future. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong versus where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. The market will also turn attention to the Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. Markets remain in a demand driven market, with limited production news to send market in either direction.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATBids to Canadian Prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States. All initial reports for these areas remain mostly positive as they are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state by state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that is when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheatvalues, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown but are well understood. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. We expect sideways markets for the near future.  MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key markets forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European Union crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market with limited production news to send the market in either direction. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates, follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATWestern Canadian export wheat bids picked up another $2 per tonne week-over-week off the west coast, after snagging $2 the week prior. Inland bids have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. Wheat markets were watching for winterkill news out of the Black Sea or U.S. wheat production regions this past week, but that weather risk has fell off. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus on winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for westernCanadian wheat values, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand-driven market and global supplies have grown as Australia and Argentina wrapped up their harvest. Producers will want to pencil this Friday, Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon and is just on the horizon. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories.  MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs. where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market, with limited production news to send the market in either direction.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates, followthe link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian export wheat bids picked up $2 per tonne week-over-week at the port and seeing some similar strength at inland locations. Bids have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed. The markets are watching if cold weather in the United States and Black Sea wheat production regions will threaten any crop conditions in these areas. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheat values, we are anticipating a neutral outlook for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown as Australia and Argentina wrapped up their harvest. Producers will want to pencil Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon and is just on the horizon. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. The gap between USA and CDN West Coast bids narrowed week over-week.  MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market. With limited production news to send market in either direction.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian cash wheat bids lost $1 per tonne week over week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Western Canadian bids for producers have been quite steady overall with limited moves to the upside. Basis has been found to strengthen when futures weaken in Central SK values. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat around these values as producer deliveries and exports continue at a steady pace, although slightly behind where we were heading into the new year. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining itscompetitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will begin to shift its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States in the coming months. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that are being presented as Argentina and Australia wrap up their harvests. For Western Canadian wheat values, we are anticipating a neutral outlook for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market. Producers may want to pencil the Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Acres Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. Right now, we are in a demand driven market with limited production news to send market in either direction.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATWestern Canadian cash wheat bids grabbed $2 per tonne week-over-week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat around these values as producer deliveries and exports continue at a steady pace. Exports were down week-over-week to some of the lowest values of the year. 224,000 tonnes (525,500 tonnes week prior) left the borders in Week 22, but holiday trade could be blamed partly for that move. Canadian wheat needs to remain competitive into the world market and a growing supply of wheat globallywill cap major moves to the upside. Market sits comfortably for the time beingbut will begin to shift its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States in the coming months. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of theincreased stocks that are being presented as Argentina and Australia wrap up their harvests. Fully updated charts below in this week’s report from today's USDA WASDE and FAS reports. Western Canadian wheat market outlook remains relatively neutral for the current time.MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for Western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African, Mediterranean, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. Right now, we are in a demand driven market.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link: https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Cash wheat bids across western Canada begin 2026 in a similar spot to where they ended out the late December trade. Similar cash bids are being shown to producers and producers have been willing to sell into these markets as exports continue to move out of the nation at a speedy pace. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Western Canadian producers continue to ponder the crops they sell, and wheat has been a relatively quick to move crop for producers as delivery windows have been readily available. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Russia, Argentina, Australia and Canada’s crops came in larger than initial market expectations, but the market has known this data for several weeks, even months in the cases of Russia and Canada. The crop prices overall have continued to be relatively flat as the market has not had to fight to find supplies. The next majorreports released will be the Jan. 12, 2026, USDA WASDE + FAS reports and Statistics Canada’s Feb. 6, 2026, report which will feature estimates on Dec. 31, 2025, crop inventories. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMAs we enter the new year, durum markets will get a better sense of how the crop marketing year could potentially finish off.  Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong compared to where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to seehow demand into some of our key players forecasts out. We will also begin to get a full view of how Northern African and EU winter crops are shaping up in our 2026 forecasts. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Cash markets in Saskatchewan pulled back at the start of last week on some weakness in futures, but as we enter the last few days of December, posted bids on stronger basis appear to be enticing grain into the system yet. This is showcasing relative strength for Canadian exportable wheat as the futures values have remained near their lows and with Minneapolis spring wheat setting new contract lows last week, prairie cash bids have remained relatively flat. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. The Argentinian and Australian crop harvest is nearly completed, and the market will shift to other news shortly. Market focus will turn to demand signals from the market and how the ending balance sheets might play out at the end of the marketing year. Next up we will be keeping a close eye on European, Black Sea and North American winter wheat crops. The wheat market will also face influence from overall futuresmarket movement.  MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMAs we enter the new year, durum markets will get a better sense of how the crop marketing year could potentially finishoff.  Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong vs. where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Great Lake traffic will stall in January for a few months as the system undergoes its normal winter pause and we will see continued movement off our west coast terminals. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of ourkey players forecasts out. We will also begin to get a full view of how Northern African and EU winter crops are shaping up in our 2026 forecasts. A MESSAGE FROM EXCEEDWe are honoured to be able to bring you the global wheat market outlook each week. We are excited for what 2026 has in store and look forwards to bringing top quality data to readers and listeners each week. Next market report will be Jan. 5, 2026.

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Cash markets in Saskatchewan are pulling back slightly on posted bids although export pace remains steady. Basis has weakened from its mid-November peak but within the range of post-harvest levels. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. USDA WASDE confirmed the larger supplies the market has been trading in recent weeks. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market. Some quality concerns beginning to show from Australia and Argentina’scrops as protein issues are showing up in pockets with larger yields. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which are in mostly strong shape as of now. Over the next month markets will shift focus to demand and begin looking at deeper projections for the 2026/27 crop as much of the Northern Hemisphere winter crops are planted and what economics of spring plantings look like. WHEAT OUTLOOK - DURUMStatistics Canada placed the Canadian durum crop at 7.1MMT whichwas mostly in line with the range of estimates. Western Canadian bids have been mostly flat in recent weeks and the production figure for durum will not necessarily serve as a shock to the market as larger production was estimated from the Canadian durum crop. Demand is still fair and port stocks of 400,000 mt (467,000 mt last week) in the system tagged for export as of Week 18, with the majority of such sitting in Thunder Bay and St Lawrence systems. We will be watching European and North African weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3 MMT up from 8 MMT in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7 MMT last year and 6.2 MMT the year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5 MMT which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures of 7.1MMT. For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8 MMT in 2016. Aside from that 6.571 MMT would be the prior second place record in 2020, surpassed by 2025 production.

Market Outlook – WheatCash markets in Saskatchewan are pulling back slightly from their late November peak. Basis has weakened slightly overthe past week but within the range of post-harvest levels. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. USDA WASDE and FAS reports will be closely watched by the markets tomorrow. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market, and these crops continue to grow with the updated Argentinian and Australian figures. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which is in mostly strong shape as of now. Over the next month markets will shift focus to demand and begin looking at deeper projections for the 2026/27 crop as much of the Northern Hemisphere winter crops are planted. Market Outlook – DurumStatistics Canada placed the Canadian durum crop at 7.1MMT which was mostly in line with the range of estimates. Western Canadian bids have been mostly flat in recent weeks and the production figure for durum will not necessarily serve as a shock to the market as larger production was estimated from the Canadian durum crop. Demand is still fair and port stocks of 467tmt in the system tagged for export as of Week 17 with most sitting in the Thunder Bay and St. Lawrence systems. We will be watching European and North African weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3MMT up from 8MMT in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7MMT last year and 6.2MMT year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5MMT which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures of 7.1MMT.  For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8MMT in 2016. Aside from that 6.57MMT would be the prior second place record in 2020, surpassed by 2025 production.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATCash markets in Saskatchewan are floating around their crop marketing year highs but appear to be sitting comfortable atthe values posted. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped keep the markets higher. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a fewmonths ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values have been gaining ground. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market, and these crops continue to grow with the updated Argentinian and Australian figures. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into thecoming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which in mostly strong shape as of now. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMDemand remains the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Western Canadian bids are flattening in the past few weeks and have not seen as much post-harvest market appreciation as spring wheat. We will be watching European winter weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. Demand is anticipated to be less than last year, but markets will watch to see if we maintain anticipated pace or move on either side of it. Statistics Canada crop production estimates are out on Thursday and will be very closely watched byglobal markets to see how the crop shapes up compared to estimates. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3 mmt up from 8.0 mmt in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7.0 mmt last year and 6.2 mmt the year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5 mmt which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures. Stats Canada has the Canadian durum crop at 6.5 mmt in its Sept. 17, 2025 satellite imagery-based report. Statistics Canada will release official estimate of the 2025 crop size totals in its Dec. 4, 2025 report. For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8 mmt in 2016. Aside from that, 6.571 would be the second-place record in 2020.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATCash markets in Saskatchewan are touching crop marketing year highs once again this past week for spring wheat. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped keep the markets higher before pulling back slightly into the weekend. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavierthan it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values have been gaining ground. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head intothe coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which are in mostly strong shape as of now. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMDemand remains the big item to watch on durum. The export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Western Canadian bids were flattening in the past week and have not seen as much post harvest market appreciation as spring wheat. We will be watching European winter weather conditions for the durum production regions over there.Demand is anticipated to be less than last year, but markets will watch to see if we maintain anticipated pace or move on either side of it. Statistics Canada crop production estimates out next week will be very closely watched by global markets to see how the crop shapes up compared to estimates.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATCash markets in Saskatchewan were touching crop marketing year highs this past week for spring wheat. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped bring the markets higher. Strong export demand has elevators working to keep the product in their system. The USDA WASDE tacked on more production to global wheat balance sheets but keep in mind the usage levels were raised as well. The overall balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increases were somewhat anticipated by the market heading into the USDA’s report. The market wasanticipating at least slight bumps to Argentinian, Australian, Canadian, and Russian levels prior to the report's release. The ending stocks data is well illustrated in the charts below. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values are gaining ground. As always, demand needs to be watched closely as there are larger crops to be moving but if export pace remains on track, it could keep ending stocks from becoming burdensome in Canada. Markets have a good understanding of the global supplies, and we will finish off theAustralian and Argentinian harvests in the coming weeks. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMDemand is the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Italian buyers are cautious due to proposed pasta tariffs of 92 per cent into theUnited States, although these are expected to be postponed for the time being. They were initially threatened to take place in January. Markets will need to see import demand from Italy and North Africa as we head into winter season to keep bids stable. Saskatchewan durum bids are on average $8 CDN per tonne off the harvest lows set late September and are showing a flatline pace for the time being. There is anticipated to be ample supplies in the marketplace for the time being to meet current export demand. Quality is less than last year with 38 per cent of the durum in the #3 category and 15 per cent in #4 and #5 CWAD combined. Tunisia tendered for durum for the first time since the beginning of the year in January and came in at $323 to $326 per tonne for 100,000 tonnes.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Markets have recently bumped higher thanks to renewed Chinese demand in U.S. wheat. Trade rumours throughout the beginning of the week first sparked the markets interest and held steady once the word of the two cargos were secured. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the crops appear to be getting bigger vs smaller. Some reports that Argentina’s 22 mmt crop could be on the light side of production. Quality appears good with some light frost damage in regions but will likely not affect the overall crop. Australia’s crop in the Western region tacked on 1 mmt of tonnage in a recent report. Demand for North American wheat is holding up well as Canadian and U.S. crop exports ahead of last years levels even a few months now into the new crop marketing campaign. Demand is the big figure to be watching going forwards, although it appears to be pricing itself well as global wheat bids are stable to higher. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting (see chart below) and we are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest in some small moves as cashflow and logistics dictate. As we head into winter, another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S winter wheat crops. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMGlobal durum markets will begin to look at how the European and North African crops begin to shape up as we enter winter season. Export pace continues to be strong but will need to continue its trajectory. EU import pace is up 28 per cent year-over-year but below the five-year average. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria in October helped boost export sentiment. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 39 bpa average for durum vs a 34 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices are flat recently, up off the harvest lows and touching $8.00 in some further eastern prairie regions. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Quality of the crop is a bit of an issue vs last year as there is more durum in the #3 and lower categories. #1 durum carrying a premium in the domestic market. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last years 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATMarkets leaving the contract lows a little further in the rearview mirror for Chicago and Kansas City wheat. Minneapolis wheat struggling to keep pace relative to Chicago and Kansas City. Overall, wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the crops appear to be getting bigger vs smaller. Argentina’s initial crop harvest reports are that yields are better than anticipated. Australia’s crop in the Western region tacked on 1 mmt of tonnage anticipated and will keep the bulls somewhat limited as there is a bigger crop to chew through. Demand for North American wheat holding up well as Canadian and U.S. crop exports are ahead of last year's pace. Demand is the big figure to be watching going forward. Market will be looking to see if we can ramp up Russian/Black Sea shipments as there is a sizeable crop to move out of that region as well. Global wheat bids are stable to higher. We are transitioning into winter exporting season for northern hemisphere producers. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting (see chart below).  We are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest as we see cash bids continue to improve. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMEarly demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria in October will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with the Sask. provincial crop report pointing to a 39 BPA average for durum vs a 34 BPA average just one year ago. Market prices have picked up since harvest lows and are touching $8.00 in somefurther eastern prairie regions. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Quality of the crop is a bit of an issue vs last year as there is more durum in the #3 and lower categories. #1 durum is carrying a premium in the domestic market. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year's 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been keeping a good pace and pricing well into EU and NorthAfrica.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Wheat markets picking up ground this week and leaving the contract lows a little further in the rearview mirror for Chicago and Kansas City wheat. Minneapolis wheat has its lows a littlecloser as new ones were set last week. Minneapolis wheat in Monday’s trade action at the close is also the weakest of the contracts, with Chicago and Kansas City up double digits while Minneapolis wheat is struggling to hold onto its gains for the session. Overall, wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the coming weeks will determine the crop size. The market well understands that these two nations have big crops coming and the market will look forconfirmation of these figures. Demand is the big figure to be watching. U.S. and Canadian demand appear very strong for early in the shipping season and Canadian wheat is being exported at a very rapid pace with what looks to be good export outlook for the near future as well. The market will be looking to see if we can expedite Russian/Black Sea shipments as there is a sizeable crop to move out of that region. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some fewdollar moves in FOB values each week but relative stability. We are transitioning into winter exporting season for northern hemisphere producers. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies still have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting. We are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest if we see cash bids continue to improve. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMEarly demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41 bpa average for durum vs a 33 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently domestically following harvest lows. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.75+ per bushel range across Saskatchewan and have picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year’s 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop is at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing wellinto EU and North Africa.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATWheat futures markets still hover near their five-year lows and futures on the front month Minneapolis contract sit at $5.49 per bushel. The last time wheat futures were at this level was December of 2020. Kansas City and Chicago wheat finding a bit more ground recently, although contract lows remain very close in the rearview mirror. Wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops and the recent upgrades to Argentinian wheat production levels and anticipation that the Australian crop could grow vs shrink in size has wheat markets resistant to make a move higher. The market will need to make its moves higher on demand related stories. North American demand Is perceived as just fine with both U.S. demand forecasted to be strong and Canadian export pace being rapid. European and Black Sea shipping pace is behind pace, and we will need to see true demandpick up out of the region. There are a few key importers behind pace on imports, and we need to see these importers step up to the plate to keep demand moving forwards. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some few-dollar moves in FOB values each week but relative stability. We will move out of harvest pressure in northern hemisphere and transition into winter exporting season. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies sit just below $7 and we are still on hold for making big sales as we hover and trod along our five-yearlows. Strong demand for CWRS is anticipated throughout the winter, we will be watching if U.S. trade deals or MOUs with nations such as Bangladesh on wheat pull from Canadian demand. As we head into winter another item to watch will beany drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMThe Canadian durum crop has grown through harvest as later estimates point towards a larger crop. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41BPA average for durum vs a 33 BPA average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently domestically following harvest lows. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.50 to $7.75+ per bushel range across Saskatchewan andhave picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year’s 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa.

Market Outlook - WheatWheat futures markets still hover near their five-year lows and futures on the front month Minneapolis contract sit at $5.52 per bushel. The last time wheat futures were at this level was December of 2020. Wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops and the recent upgrades to Argentinian wheat production levels and anticipation that the Australian crop could grow vs shrink in size has wheat markets resistant to make a move higher. The market will need to make its moves higher on demand related stories. North American demand is perceived as just fine with both U.S. demand forecasted to be strong and Canadian export pace being rapid. European and Black Sea shipping pace is behind pace, and we will need to see true demand pick up out of the region. There are a few key importers behind pace on imports, and we need to see these importers step up to the plate to keep demand moving forwards. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some few dollar moves in FOB values each week but relatively stable. We will move out of harvest pressure in the northern hemisphere and transition into winter exporting season. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies sit just below $7.00 and we are still on hold for making big sales as we hover and trod along our five-year lows. Strong demand for CWRS is anticipated throughout the winter, we will be watching if U.S. trade deals or MOUs with nations such as Bangladesh on wheat pull from Canadian demand. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops. Russia has some severe drought in the Rostov region, and any weather stories typically are reflected quickly in the market if notable tonnage is at risk.Market Outlook - DurumThe Canadian durum crop has grown through harvest as later estimates point towards a larger crop. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41 bpa average for durum vs a 33 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently, and export pace has kept up to last year's pace so far. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.50 to $7.75 per bushel range across Saskatchewan and have picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year's 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. The EU crop is at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa. We are watching this trend closely and keeping an eye on export shipments in a proactive manner to analyse the movements.

Oct. 6

Market Outlook – WheatWheat futures markets remain at levels not seen in around five years. New contract lows were made once again for both European and North American futures. Wheat markets have been digesting the larger crop sentiment for about a month now and there is a good understanding that the Australian and Argentinian crops will be of good quality. We have seen a stabilizing and even a slight increase in some cases in global wheat bids from export locations and there is the rolling idea that although many key regions are behind on exports, we know that import demand is forecasted to come to the market by many key agencies. Algeria’s large-scale purchase of 600,000 tonnes and some other more business being completed at these levels has importers beginning to see the value of the crop available to them. This reinforces that the market is of the notion that although global crop sizes have increased, global demand is still there. We remain hesitant to make major sales at the current time amidst harvest pressure and typical seasonality of markets. Market Outlook – DurumCanadian crop size has been increasing as producers get into harvest with Statistics Canada estimating the crop at 6.5 mmt up from 6.1 mmt in the August estimate. The crop size is larger than last year's total volume. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year's 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop is at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa. We are watching this trend closely and keeping an eye on export shipments in a proactive manner to analyse the movements.

Market Outlook – WheatWheat futures markets to levels not seen in around five years. Wheat markets have been digesting the larger crop sentiment for about a month now and there is a good understanding that the Australian and Argentinian crops will be of good quality. We have seen a stabilizing and even a slight increase in global wheat bids from export locations and there is the rolling idea that although many key regions are behind on exports, we know that import demand isforecasted to come to the market by many key agencies. The market is of the notion that although global crop sizes have increased, global demand is still there. We remain hesitant to make major sales at the current time amidst harvest pressure and typical seasonality of markets. Market Outlook – DurumCanadian crop size has been increasing as producers get into harvest, with Statistics Canada estimating the crop at 6.5 mmt up from 6.1 mmt in their August estimate. The crop size is larger than last years’ total volume. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2mmt last year to 8.6mmt this year, with larger global production being penciled in at 37.2mmt vs last year’s 36.4mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5mmt of that. The EU crop is estimated at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Global ending stocks this year are expected to be at 7.5mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Quality of durum unharvested in thefields of the Canadian prairies could become a market factor if we begin to see degrading factors from the durum crop that was yet to come off before the rain event.

Market Outlook – WheatWheat markets continue to grind near their contract lows on the futures markets and sit at levels which were previously seen in early 2021. Markets have a better understanding of wheat supplies now that the European, Black Sea, United States and Canadian crops are either off or close to wrappingup their harvest season. Recent USDA, Statistics Canada, ABARES and private reports confirm that global supplies have grown from earlier season reports. Australiancrops look favourable and have seen some major improvements in the past two months. The Argentinian crop looks great and that story will play out in the coming months as well. There is a lack of any major concerns for the market to work with right now and it has kept any movement sideways to lower. Demand is the item being watched as export pace is slow in some regions and reports of buyers remaining on the sidelines seeing how low prices may move before making any major commitments. With supplies relatively well understood, we will need to see stories build on the demand side. The next thing the market will watch as we move throughout the calendar will be EU and Black Sea winter crop planting. Nothing major to report there yet. Market Outlook – DurumCanadian producers will need to see strong export demand throughout the marketing year. Canadian durum is expected to be of good quality for export but will need to remain competitive globally. European production is estimated at 8.3 mmt vs last years’ 7.2 mmt which has weighed on EU prices. Global durum carryout is expected to jump to 7 mmt,up by 400,000 tonnes over last years’ ending stock estimate. Canadian durum crop size estimated by the International Grains Council (IGC) is at 5.8 mmt. However, Statistics Canada’s latest release has the figure closer to 6.1 mmt.Canadian durum values are under harvest pressure as supplies become available to the market. 

Market Outlook - What to Watch with WheatWheat markets continue to grind near their contract lows on the futures markets and sit at levels seen back in early 2021. Markets have a better understanding of wheat supplies now that the European, Black Sea, United States and Canadian crops are either off or close to wrapping up their harvest season. The Australian crop looks favourable and has seen some major improvements in the past two months and the Argentinian crop looks great. Demand is the item being watched as export pace is slow in some regions with reports of buyers remaining on the sidelines seeing how low prices may move before making any major commitments. With supplies relatively well understood, Exceed will need to see stories build on the demand side. The next thing the market will watch will be EU and Black Sea winter crop planting.Canadian producers will need to see strong export demand throughout the marketing year. Canadian durum is expected to be of good quality for export but will need to remain competitive globally. European production is estimated at 8.3mmt vs last years 7.2mmt has weighted on EU prices. Global durum carryout is expected to jump to 7mmt, up by 400,000 tonnes over last year's ending stock estimate. The Canadian durum crop size is estimated by the IGC at 5.8mmt but Statistics Canada’s latest release has the figure closer to 6.1mmt. Canadian durum values are under harvest pressure as supplies become available to the market. Statistics Canada stocks report released tomorrow, September 9th, will be closely watched by market participants globally.Market Outlook – DurumCanadian producers will need to see strong export demand throughout the marketing year. Canadian durum is expected to be of good quality for export but will need to remain competitive globally. European production is estimated at 8.3mmt vs last years 7.2mmt has weighted on EU prices. Global durum carryout is expected to jump to 7mmt, up by 400,000 tonnes over last year's ending stock estimate. The Canadian durum crop size is estimated by the IGC at 5.8mmt but Statistics Canada’s latest release has the figure closer to 6.1mmt. Canadian durum values are under harvest pressure as supplies become available to the market. Statistics Canada stocks report released tomorrow, September 9th, will be closely watched by market participants globally.

Market Outlook – What to Watch with Wheat  Markets have a much better understanding of total global supplies in major regions vs just one month ago. Canadian and U.S. wheat harvest will be off shortly, EU and Russian crop sizes well understood as well. After the North American crop is off there will be a few key southern hemisphere players. Australian crop prospects have improved significantly since spring although their major harvest is still a few months away. The Argentinian crop is looking excellent as well. The market will look for demand stories to give traders confidence that the market is finding a home for the crop that is being made available.  We have seen west coast North American FOB bids stay relatively steady recently while European / Black Sea quotes pull back slightly as they try to generate demand for their freshly harvested crop.  Market Outlook - Durum Export demand is anticipated to be lower from Canada due to the better European crop and lack of major production issues in the North African crop. Crop size from Statistics Canada is placed at 6.08 mmt. The crop has seen domestic bids fall week over week. Larger European Union crop availability will keep a lid on market appreciation and Canadian durum values will need to be competitive to gain sales throughout the crop marketing season.   

Market Outlook - What to Watch with WheatNorth American Spring Wheat harvestA dry stretch of weather in the Prairie provinces is expected this week which will help push crop maturity as we begin the last week of August. The U.S. crop is over half off and the story will be well-known on the crop shortly. Limited issues arising so far in the North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota crop leaving few surprises to the market so far.Market Outlook – DurumPrairie crop size and quality will be very closely watched and will influence market direction. Export demand is anticipated to be lower from Canada due to the better European crop and lack of major production issues in the North African crop. Sask Ag is reporting an increase in durum crop conditions for Saskatchewan in what was to be their last crop conditions report prior to harvest. Quality and yield will be the market drivers in durum as the Canadian harvest is next up on the docket. At this point in the crop season, we would like to see crop quality and quantity before making next sales on the new crop. Early harvest of durum is just underway, but more will be known within the next 10 days. 

Aug 18

Aug 11

Global wheat values have been trading mostly lower in recent weeks due to harvest pressure and lack of any bullish market stories that could essentially change the markets overall sentiment on the current situation. All eyes are on the Western Canadian crop for Durum.  The crop size and quality will be very closely watched and will influence market direction. Export demand is anticipated to be lower from Canada due to the better European crop and lack of major production issues in the North African crop. Sask Ag reporting an increase in Durum crop conditions for Saskatchewan in what is expected to be their last crop conditions report prior to harvest. Quality and yield will be the market drivers in Durum as Canadian harvest is next up on the docket. Exceed is hesitant against making any additional new crop sales on wheat right now as market prices leave little to no profit on an average wheat crop. If Exceed sees some appreciation in new crop basis or futures, they will consider a sale.

According to Mercantile, futures markets remain under seasonal pressure. Global crops remain large, but Mercantile says slow harvest progress and limited farmer selling is driving a wedge between futures and cash prices. Given the various quality issues in Europe and the premium in cash markets over futures markets, Mercantile would hold sales for now.

According to Mercantile, the concerns about the protein content of French wheat in the wheat market remainin place, and Balkan wheat hit season highs due to strong demand by both EU and non-EU destinations. In Russia, Mercantile says values continued to rise within ongoing yield and quality concerns in the south, a slow harvest and strongfarmer retention. Mercantile continues to watch theweather/crop conditions, while there have been more quality concerns popping up. Old crop sales should be done, with around 25 per cent N/C sales on the books.

While wheat markets do not look exciting to Mercantile because the demand side remains tepid and hard to define for the coming crop year, they do note that there seems to be room for high protein wheat once again. In the ongoing crop year, demand for good quality protein wheat confirmed good demand for Canadian wheat. This year, we see German wheat come in with lower pro than normal, while once again seeing quality concerns with French wheat, and some concerns with Russian wheat. Mercantile says this will not fuel a change in overall price trends for wheat but should support a good premium for high quality/high pro wheat in the markets and support demand for Canadian product(all assuming we get off with good quality). Mercantile will be watching out for occasional premium selling opportunities.

Mercantile is watching the ongoing heat in Europe, where temperatures are expected to climb again mid-week. Protein seems to be the immediate problem with wheat, and Mercantile is watching yield outcomes in the EU and in Russia where there are questions about the crops in the Rostov and Volga regions (Mercantile says Siberia seems to look good). Mercantile would hold sales for now.

According to Mercantile, the market is not expecting any major changes in the USDA stocks and seeded area reports out today. Despite a weak U.S. dollar, slow harvest andweakening crop conditions, U.S. wheat prices will remain under pressure as crops in competing origins are harvested and are generally strong. Rain will drastically improve the condition of the crops in Saskatchewan and Alberta, sothere is less of an issue there. Strong export performance will whittle away at stocks and lower seeded area heightens the importance of a good crop in Canada. Spring wheat looks largely rangebound for now.

According to Mercantile, the weather and political uncertainty are supportive for the markets. The market is watching the dry conditions in Russia and the EU. Meanwhile, estimates for Russia’s wheat crop remain big. Mercantile says there was good tender business last week, but the results continue to signal strong supplies in the Black Sea and Balkans. Meanwhile, spring wheat crops in the Northern Hemisphere, especially Canada, are facing weather challenges. Mercantile would not sell wheat for now.

Mercantile says harvest of, what is expected to be a strong new crop in the Northern Hemisphere, is approaching rapidly. Dry conditions in the northern U.S. and Canadian prairies are supportive for high protein wheats, but this can be eased with rain. Mercantile would be sold out of old crop wheat and would hold new crop wheat sales for now.

According to Mercantile, futures markets are acting like they have founda bottom. Meanwhile, cash markets are being pressured by the volume of new crop wheat that is jostling for demand. Increasingly dry conditions in the Canadian prairies have the market on edge, says Mercantile. The next USDA report is out on Thursday. Traders expect the USDA will increase U.S. wheat stocks for ‘24/25 while lowering them for ‘25/26, while global ‘25/26 stocks are expected to be lower. Mercantile would not sell wheat for now.

According to Mercantile, thin demand ahead of the Northern Hemisphere harvest is presently the prime focus, but hi-pro supplies in North America is dwindling, and the new crop could be under threat. Building heat and dryness in the Northern U.S. shocked initial U.S. Spring wheat ratings, while there is no visible change to the dryness in China. Meanwhile, Mercantile says India is projecting a record crop. Mercantile would look for hard wheat to go higher.

According to Mercantile, there is an increasing number of production challenges arising, and the wheat market will increasingly focus on the weather. Mercantile says the trade is watching how production issues in some areas (Russia, China), will come against strong crops in other regions (the U.S., eastern Europe). Mercantile would continue to hold wheat sales for now.