Wheat Market Outlook - August 24, 2026

Market Outlook - WheatWheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone as tightening supplies among major exporters and continued disruption to Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping provide support. The latest IGC outlook points to smaller crops across Canada, the U.S., Europe and Australia, while major exporter wheat stocks are expected to fall sharply year-over-year. This is being partly offset by larger crops in North Africa and Turkey. In North America, early U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally been respectable, while Canadian harvest remains in the early stages with producers still focused largely on peas, lentils and barley. HRS wheat and durum harvest should begin making more meaningful progress this week, making Canadian yield, protein and quality results increasingly important. Near-term direction will largely depend on whether Black Sea disruptions persist and whether Canadian harvest results confirm current production expectations, with advancing harvest pressure likely to limit upside if both develop favourably.Market Outlook - DurumDurum markets remain relatively rangebound, with tighter North American production being offset by larger crops and weaker import demand anticipated across North Africa and Turkey. IGC now forecasts global durum production at 38.9 MMT, down 0.6 MMT from July, including 6.3 MMT in Canada and 1.8 MMT in the U.S., both lower year-over-year. However, improved crops in Morocco, Algeria and Turkey are expected to reduce global trade the lowest in five years, limiting the need for aggressive importer buying. Western Canadian harvest remains in the very early stages, with producers still focused largely on peas, lentils and barley, but durum harvest should begin making more meaningful progress this week. Yield, protein, test weight and grade distribution will become increasingly important, particularly as major-exporter durum stocks remain relatively tight despite comfortable global inventories. Disappointing Canadian yields or quality could strengthen premiums, while a solid Prairie harvest combined with subdued North African demand would likely keep prices contained for the time being.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/