Wheat Market Outlook - December 8, 2025

Market Outlook – WheatCash markets in Saskatchewan are pulling back slightly from their late November peak. Basis has weakened slightly overthe past week but within the range of post-harvest levels. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. USDA WASDE and FAS reports will be closely watched by the markets tomorrow. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market, and these crops continue to grow with the updated Argentinian and Australian figures. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which is in mostly strong shape as of now. Over the next month markets will shift focus to demand and begin looking at deeper projections for the 2026/27 crop as much of the Northern Hemisphere winter crops are planted. Market Outlook – DurumStatistics Canada placed the Canadian durum crop at 7.1MMT which was mostly in line with the range of estimates. Western Canadian bids have been mostly flat in recent weeks and the production figure for durum will not necessarily serve as a shock to the market as larger production was estimated from the Canadian durum crop. Demand is still fair and port stocks of 467tmt in the system tagged for export as of Week 17 with most sitting in the Thunder Bay and St. Lawrence systems. We will be watching European and North African weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3MMT up from 8MMT in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7MMT last year and 6.2MMT year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5MMT which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures of 7.1MMT.  For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8MMT in 2016. Aside from that 6.57MMT would be the prior second place record in 2020, surpassed by 2025 production.