Wheat Market Outlook - February 23, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATWheat futures have had a strong showing this past week and has translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Canadian wheat domestic prices are up $8 to $10 CDN per tonne week-over-week for posted bids and targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short positions. Some weather scares and repositioning by traders as the wheat crop ending stocks and forecasts do not look as burdensome as they once did just a month ago. The market is entering an interesting time here shortly as it will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates are provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that’s when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitive as U.S. export values have dropped recently. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMThe price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum, plus how the North African and Mediterranean and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall, and the crop prospect is sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/