Wheat Market Outlook - July 20, 2026

Market Outlook - WheatWheat markets enter the week trading Black Sea shipping disruptions, reduced European production expectations and perception of tightening global ending stocks, although favourable initial harvest results in Russia and eastern Ukraine continue to limit the upside. Restrictions through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait added a logistical risk premium during last week’s rally, while the strike on a merchant vessel near Odessa reinforced concerns around Black Sea export reliability. June heat also reduced wheat yield potential across parts of western and central Europe, prompting haircuts to EU production estimates. The July IGC report left global wheat production unchanged near 821 MMT and ending stocks slightly down near 279 MMT. Attention now turns to this week’s U.S. spring wheat tour for updated yield indications across the northern Plains. Western Canadian conditions remain favourable in general, but uneven, with excessive moisture creating localized acreage and yield losses across eastern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Alberta, while stronger crops are developing across much of the southern and western Prairies.Market Outlook - DurumDurum markets remain largely rangebound as smaller North American acreage is being offset by generally favourable crop conditions and softer import demand expectations from North Africa. The USDA and Statistics Canada acreage reports confirmed reduced durum area, but the cuts were widely anticipated and did not materially tighten the market outlook. Moisture across the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies has generally supported yield potential, with Saskatchewan and Alberta durum conditions remaining favourable overall despite localized excess moisture concerns. Canadian durum exports through Week 49 reached 5.44 MMT, only 1 per cent below last year, showing that demand has remained steady into the end of the current crop year. However, larger North African harvests are expected to reduce near-term import requirements from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. A strong Western Canadian crop would likely keep prices muted into early winter, with the next meaningful direction dependent on final Canadian and U.S. production, quality results and the outlook for the next North African growing season. Our updated Canadian durum supply-and-disposition estimates are provided below.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/